Category Archives: Risks

What if..? (Major Earthquake + Silicon Valley)

I was at a Lloyd’s Insurance event last night and the subject of a major Californian earthquake came up in conversation (not if, when). I’ve written about mega-quakes before, but what ‘ve I’ve never really thought through is the location … Continue reading

Posted in Risks, Wildcards, X-Risks | Leave a comment

Map of Global Mega Trends

Here you go then. Use this link to get to a high resolution version. A3, A1 and rather wonderful AO sized copies on paper are available upon request (no charge except for print, post and a cardbaord tube). See you … Continue reading

Posted in 2017 Trends, Data visualisation, information design, Map of Now and Next, Maps, Mega-trends, mind maps, Predictions, Risks, roadmaps, Strategic foresight, Strategic Threats, Tech Foresight, Technology, Technology Foresignt, The Future, Timelines, Top Trends, Trend watching, Trends, Wildcards, World in 2050 | Tagged , , , , , , | 10 Comments

The Search for Intelligence (here on earth)

Never mind artificial intelligence. It’s real human stupidity we should be worried about. Two classic examples of learned incompetence and lowest common denominator thinking.

Posted in AI, Human stupidity, Risks | Leave a comment

A real scenario?

I was going to add this as book of the month in brainmail, but I figured it was a little depressing. Here is fine, of course! One for the scenario thinkers at the Ministry of Defence and MI5 perhaps? A … Continue reading

Posted in Risks, Scenarios | Leave a comment

The Wildest of Wildcards

A few years ago someone came up to me after I’d given a speach at a risk conference and said that I was missing a wildcard risk. He proceeded to tell me that the world would change if we gained … Continue reading

Posted in Risks, Wildcards | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

A scenario for the future of insurance

Here’s a true story. A few weeks ago I decided to take one of my old cars for a run. It’s a very old car and if it isn’t run regularly things start to go wrong with it. It was … Continue reading

Posted in Insurance, Risks | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Cheap oil – but for how long?

Back to global risks…. Leader in the Telegraph today, which ends as follows: “This apparent glut in supply, however, means that capacity globally is quite small. It would therefore require only a relatively minor disruption to supply for the situation … Continue reading

Posted in Oil, Risks | Leave a comment

Kanye West US President?

  It’s been pointed out to me (I totally missed it – thanks Paddy) that my not very serious prediction that Kim Kardashian might run for US President has been overshadowed by the real-life possibility that her husband, Kanye West, … Continue reading

Posted in Maps, Risks | Leave a comment

Global Risks Radar

So here, once again, is the finished version of my new map of global risks (plus a few charming ways the world could end). The radar is obviously divided into four by impact and probability. Impact is a guess at … Continue reading

Posted in Risks | 4 Comments

Risk Map 2015+

Here’s my map of global game changers & regional risks. I was going to wait until September to publish this, but it’s been done early so what the heck. I’ll post a longer explanatory note about process and contents tomorrow. … Continue reading

Posted in Data visualisation, Maps, Risks | Leave a comment