Tag Archives: corona virus

Corona is not a Black Swan Event

There is a narrative slowly emerging that Corona (Covid-19) is a true Black swan event. For example, according to Fred Cleary, a portfolio manager at Pegasus Capital, quoted in the FT’s excellent Long View Column, “Covid-19 is a black swan”. … Continue reading

Posted in Pandemic risks, Predictions, Risks, Scenario Planning, Scenarios, X-Risks | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

No touching

OK, two scenarios in light of Coronavirus and the current outbreak of anxiety. Scenario one: Social distancing becomes the norm. People avoid people.People don’t trust people. People trust machines and prefer their company. Asociety-wide deletion of the human interface (currently … Continue reading

Posted in Anxiety, Scenarios | Tagged | Leave a comment

Scenarios for the impact of pandemics

A scenario matrix from my friend Nick Turner at Stratforma. His explanation below. The framework is built on the axes of two critical uncertainties: The nature of global coordination; “slow and inadequate” vs. “fast and efficient” The nature of public response; “panicked” vs. “disciplined” When … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Healthcare & Well-being, Pandemic risks, Scenario Planning, Scenarios, X-Risks | Tagged , | Leave a comment