Monthly Archives: October 2013

Why prediction is difficult, especially about the future

  Kenneth Arrow, the recipient of a Nobel Prize for economics in the 1970s, once spoke about the response he and colleagues received during WW2 when they demonstrated that the military’s long-term weather forecasts were no good. The response he … Continue reading

Posted in Forecasts & forecasting, Predictions | Leave a comment

The World in 2020 (and 2045)

                                  Here’s a nice information graphic on households and household types in the US in 2020. Link to page here. BTW, tonight is the … Continue reading

Posted in World in 2020, World in 2045 | Leave a comment

Top Travel Trends

Trend 1: Ubiquitous connectivity In the future everyone’s life will be carried around with them in the palm of the hand, on their wrist or in other wearable devices. Access to information will define social status and identity and personal … Continue reading

Posted in Travel & Tourism | 1 Comment

The World in 2050

Towards the end of October I am hosting a dinner on board HMS President in London to discuss some of the emergent themes and issues likely to be a feature of the world (and, by association, the UK) in the … Continue reading

Posted in World in 2050 | 3 Comments

Future Travel Destinations

      A rough map of future travel hot spots. Nicer looking version coming soon.

Posted in Travel & Tourism | Leave a comment


I seem to remember that sometime ago the futurologist Ian Pearson talked about people being able to leave ‘sticky messages’ in very specific locations for other people to pick up when they passed through the same exact location. Here’s an … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments