Category Archives: Coronavirus

Post Pandemic Scenarios

Some interesting work from Shell just out looking at different paths out of Covid. Link. Now, what if you crossed Shell’s work with the TNK scenarios done by myself and Oliver Freeman? I may follow up on this as i … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Pandemic risks, Scenario Planning, Scenarios | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Post-Pandemic Scenarios

Introduction Back in 2012 we had published a book called Futurevision: scenarios for the world in 2040. Among other things, we noted the possibility of a pandemic as a highly probable, highly impactful future event.  And we saw a fraught … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Pandemic risks, Scenario Planning, Scenarios | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Is change really going to come?

It was no so long ago, about three months ago from my fading memory, that pundits were predicting that life would be forever changed by the pandemic. “Nothing will ever be the same again” was the kind of headline I … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Pandemic risks, Predictions | Leave a comment

One of the best bar charts of all time

The Covid-19 line is dreadful, but I actually think the suicide line is worse in some senses.

Posted in Coronavirus, Data visualisation, information design, Maps, Risks, Stats, Thinking | 2 Comments

Some things you can see coming…

i just remembere that i wrote this back in 2012 for a book called The Future: 50 Ideas you really need to know. Of course, if you write enough, and then wait long enough, almost anything can come true. The … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Pandemic risks, Predictions, X-Risks | Leave a comment

Scenarios for the impact of pandemics

A scenario matrix from my friend Nick Turner at Stratforma. His explanation below. The framework is built on the axes of two critical uncertainties: The nature of global coordination; “slow and inadequate” vs. “fast and efficient” The nature of public response; “panicked” vs. “disciplined” When … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Healthcare & Well-being, Pandemic risks, Scenario Planning, Scenarios, X-Risks | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Something from the archive

From issue 22 of What’s Next (June/July 2009). We’ve had Spanish flu (1918-19), Asian flu (1957) and Hong Kong flu (1968-69). Then we had SARS, bird flu and recently, swine flu. There is also seasonal flu, which appears every winter … Continue reading

Posted in Coronavirus, Pandemic risks, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Information Pandemic

It’s interesting to me to see how the media, and hence the public, are responding to Coronavirus (I think that’s the correct way around, but it’s hard to say who’s leading who sometimes). The risk of death is remote (a … Continue reading

Posted in Anxiety, Coronavirus, Pandemic risks, Uncategorized | Leave a comment