Author Archives: Richard

A pandemic predicted as a high probability event in 2020

I think this was published in 2014. Click on this link to download a high resolution image.

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One of the best bar charts of all time

The Covid-19 line is dreadful, but I actually think the suicide line is worse in some senses.

Posted in Coronavirus, Data visualisation, information design, Maps, Risks, Stats, Thinking | 2 Comments

A Corona Chronology (the movie)

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A Corona Chronology

A timeline for Corona (Covid-19). I must stress that this is not what I think will happen, but rather what I would like to happen. And it will happen if enough people wish it so. One axis is time. The … Continue reading

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Present Tense

Rather a lovely review about what I’m up to nowadays. From in the US. Read here.

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Corona is not a Black Swan Event

There is a narrative slowly emerging that Corona (Covid-19) is a true Black swan event. For example, according to Fred Cleary, a portfolio manager at Pegasus Capital, quoted in the FT’s excellent Long View Column, “Covid-19 is a black swan”. … Continue reading

Posted in Pandemic risks, Predictions, Risks, Scenario Planning, Scenarios, X-Risks | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Quote of the week

“No plan of operations reaches with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force” (Helmuth von Moltke, Prussina military commander, 1880). Or another version…. “Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth” (Mike Tyson, … Continue reading

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The scream (redux)

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No touching

OK, two scenarios in light of Coronavirus and the current outbreak of anxiety. Scenario one: Social distancing becomes the norm. People avoid people.People don’t trust people. People trust machines and prefer their company. Asociety-wide deletion of the human interface (currently … Continue reading

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