Category Archives: Pandemic risks

Post Pandemic Scenarios

Some interesting work from Shell just out looking at different paths out of Covid. Link. Now, what if you crossed Shell’s work with the TNK scenarios done by myself and Oliver Freeman? I may follow up on this as i … Continue reading

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Post-Pandemic Scenarios

Introduction Back in 2012 we had published a book called Futurevision: scenarios for the world in 2040. Among other things, we noted the possibility of a pandemic as a highly probable, highly impactful future event.  And we saw a fraught … Continue reading

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Is change really going to come?

It was no so long ago, about three months ago from my fading memory, that pundits were predicting that life would be forever changed by the pandemic. “Nothing will ever be the same again” was the kind of headline I … Continue reading

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A pandemic predicted as a high probability event in 2020

I think this was published in 2014. Click on this link to download a high resolution image. https://nowandnext.com/PDF/Trends%20&%20Technologies%20for%20the%20World%20in%202020.pdf

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A Corona Chronology (the movie)

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Corona is not a Black Swan Event

There is a narrative slowly emerging that Corona (Covid-19) is a true Black swan event. For example, according to Fred Cleary, a portfolio manager at Pegasus Capital, quoted in the FT’s excellent Long View Column, “Covid-19 is a black swan”. … Continue reading

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Some things you can see coming…

i just remembere that i wrote this back in 2012 for a book called The Future: 50 Ideas you really need to know. Of course, if you write enough, and then wait long enough, almost anything can come true. The … Continue reading

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Scenarios for the impact of pandemics

A scenario matrix from my friend Nick Turner at Stratforma. His explanation below. The framework is built on the axes of two critical uncertainties: The nature of global coordination; “slow and inadequate” vs. “fast and efficient” The nature of public response; “panicked” vs. “disciplined” When … Continue reading

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Something from the archive

From issue 22 of What’s Next (June/July 2009). We’ve had Spanish flu (1918-19), Asian flu (1957) and Hong Kong flu (1968-69). Then we had SARS, bird flu and recently, swine flu. There is also seasonal flu, which appears every winter … Continue reading

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Information Pandemic

It’s interesting to me to see how the media, and hence the public, are responding to Coronavirus (I think that’s the correct way around, but it’s hard to say who’s leading who sometimes). The risk of death is remote (a … Continue reading

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