Weak signals

 

There’s some disagreement about what the term ‘weak signal’ represents in terms of emerging trends or scenario thinking, but I like to think of them as hidden or ambiguous signals of change. In my view weak signals generally represent a change of direction for existing attitudes or behaviour, but they can also represent early indications of totally new ideas or events.

The image above is silly but significant. To many people coins are a pain in the pocket. They are heavy and dirty and somewhat outdated in the digital age. There was even a report a while back that in the US it now costs more than one cent to make one cent due to the cost of the metal. I suspect small coins will be more or less dead in many parts of the world within ten years. Larger coins within twenty. However, I suspect that paper notes will endure far longer, partly for the same reasons that paper newspapers, paper books and paper itself have lasted so long.

Videos and articles on Scenario Planning

 

 

 

 

 

 

As regular readers will know, my book on scenario planning (co-written with Oliver Freeman) is now out. At some point I’ll create some short films about both the book and the wider concept of scenarios as a way of engaging with the future. In the meantime there’s a good video (15 minutes) by Oliver right here.

BTW, on the subject of scenarios, here are a few other resources (some new, some old, all good).

Bain & Company on scenario planning

McKinsey & Company on scenarios

Forbes magazine on scenario planning

Harvard Business Review on scenario planning

Economist magazine on scenario planning 

Fast Company magazine on scenario planning

Wall Street Journal on scenarios

Independent newspaper on scenario planning

More scenario books and documents on my What’s Next bookshelf here.