Category Archives: Risks

The Search for Intelligence (here on earth)




Never mind artificial intelligence. It’s real human stupidity we should be worried about. Two classic examples of learned incompetence and lowest common denominator thinking.






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A real scenario?




I was going to add this as book of the month in brainmail, but I figured it was a little depressing. Here is fine, of course! One for the scenario thinkers at the Ministry of Defence and MI5 perhaps? A … Continue reading






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The Wildest of Wildcards




A few years ago someone came up to me after I’d given a speach at a risk conference and said that I was missing a wildcard risk. He proceeded to tell me that the world would change if we gained … Continue reading






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A scenario for the future of insurance




Here’s a true story. A few weeks ago I decided to take one of my old cars for a run. It’s a very old car and if it isn’t run regularly things start to go wrong with it. It was … Continue reading






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Cheap oil – but for how long?




Back to global risks…. Leader in the Telegraph today, which ends as follows: “This apparent glut in supply, however, means that capacity globally is quite small. It would therefore require only a relatively minor disruption to supply for the situation … Continue reading






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Kanye West US President?




  It’s been pointed out to me (I totally missed it – thanks Paddy) that my not very serious prediction that Kim Kardashian might run for US President has been overshadowed by the real-life possibility that her husband, Kanye West, … Continue reading






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Global Risks Radar




So here, once again, is the finished version of my new map of global risks (plus a few charming ways the world could end). The radar is obviously divided into four by impact and probability. Impact is a guess at … Continue reading






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Risk Map 2015+




Here’s my map of global game changers & regional risks. I was going to wait until September to publish this, but it’s been done early so what the heck. I’ll post a longer explanatory note about process and contents tomorrow. … Continue reading






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List of risks




Almost done. Just wondering whether to make it a little topical by replacing Kim Kardashian with Donald Trump actually being elected US President.






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Global Risks Map




Getting closer. Just arguing with myself about where certain ‘events’ should be placed. As you can see it’s not 100% serious (hey it gets a bit heavy in places). I was going to add Donald Trump as a global risk, … Continue reading






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