Author Archives: Richard

Is change really going to come?

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https://thechallengerproject.com/blog/2020/futurist-richard-watson-interview

It was no so long ago, about three months ago from my fading memory, that pundits were predicting that life would be forever changed by the pandemic. “Nothing will ever be the same again” was the kind of headline I recall reading. No more going to work in an office, no more handshakes, no more getting on airplanes to travel to far flung places. We were all going to be humble and above all more human.


I’m not so sure about that. It’s hard to predict what will happen next, but I think it’s worth a go. My feeling at the moment is that there will not be a significant second wave. There will be outbreaks, but they will be dealt with by regional lockdowns or separation for certain groups of people. We are already seeing this, although what’s interesting to me is that any re-growth in cases is not being met by any similar growth in hospital admissions. Maybe cases are now among groups that are more able to fight the virus, or perhaps the virus has mutated into something less dangerous than before (as an aside, I’m also cynical about a vaccine on the basis that it seems to assume that there is a single strain and a single vaccine will thus defeat it). I am also optimistic that the global economy will snap back to business as usual faster than many people expect.

But back to change, or the lack of it.


Janan Ganesh, writing in the FT, has observed that it is one thing to renounce an activity when it is no longer an option, another to continue to do so once a temptation has tangibly returned. My view is that many of our habits are hard-wired, built up over decades of familiarly and use. Moreover, human memories are increasingly short and there is probably a desire to forget what has just happened and move on. Therefore, many of our old ways will return and something resembling the outskirts of normal will be back before we know it. That sounds like a good thing, and it is on so many fronts, but it also perhaps represents the loss of a once in a generation opportunity to redesign how the world works. With the end of Covid-19 may come the death of hope for significant change.

A Corona Chronology

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A Corona Chronology (desired)

A timeline for Corona (Covid-19). I must stress that this is not what I think will happen, but rather what I would like to happen. And it will happen if enough people wish it so.

One axis is time. The other is empowerment (+/-), although I suppose it could also be an optimism/pessimism axis. The running order is; the great fear, the great lockdown, the great
retreat, the great slowdown, the great loosening, the great reconnection, the great realisation, the great rebellion, the great rebirth, and the great regeneration.

Spin offs are the great alone, the great stillness, the great simplification, the great silence, the great rewilding and the great escape.

Where did this come from? The writer Aifric Campbell mentioned a “loosening” to me. I then watched The Great Realisation by the poet Tomos Roberts and then I listened to a talk online by a colour forecaster called Anna Starmer. All these streams met in my subconscious last night and hey presto, quite a good doodle. Why on a wall? Why not. Big ideas need big spaces..

The writing is on the wall.

 

Maybe we need some colour?

BTW, one thing one might add would be The Great Depression, but hopefully not. I’d also think of adding Rise of the Humans somewhere too. Always remember, the future will be whatever enough people want it to be.

Corona is not a Black Swan Event

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Bank scenarios from 2005

There is a narrative slowly emerging that Corona (Covid-19) is a true Black swan event. For example, according to Fred Cleary, a portfolio manager at Pegasus Capital, quoted in the FT’s excellent Long View Column, “Covid-19 is a black swan”. I could be wrong, but from recollection of reading the book, a Black Swan event is something that people cannot possibly imagine and therefore cannot possibly predict.

9/11 was a Black Swan event. Corona virus is not. In scenario-speak it is a wild card event that breaks all scenarios, but this is most definately not something that has not been foreseen. I worked with an Australian bank back in 2005 and a pandemic was on the table so to speak. It was one of the main topics of a UK government risk workshop in 2015 (by main topic I mean it was one of the events considered most probable (when not if as they say), it featured in some strategic trends work with the UK Ministry of Defence too (again, as a strategic shock), in some library scenarios, some work for KPMG and finally some disruption cards created with Imperial College.

The problem, of course, is not predicting, forecasting or foreseeing, but in assigning probability to such events or ideas. If the probability is widely considered to be low it will be largely ignored. It also touches on not what, but whom, in the sense of who gets listened to, why and when. BTW, is this is all a bit doom and gloom, my view is that the current pandemic is quite mild in terms of mortality. This too will pass, although next time we may not be so lucky.

From the Bookends Scenarios (PLNSW) 2010
KPMG cards circa 2012
Imperial Disruption cards 2018 – note linkages between cards

Quote of the week

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“No plan of operations reaches with any certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main force” (Helmuth von Moltke, Prussina military commander, 1880).

Or another version….

“Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth” (Mike Tyson, former World Heavyweight boxing champion).