Trends Vs Fads

Is this a trend, a counter-trend or a fad?

It’s not a trend to my mind – not large enough in scale or fast enough in velocity. It could be a classic counter-trend. The bigger a macro-trend the greater the chance that a micro-trend will emerge as a balancing force in my experience (e.g. globalisation drives localisation, fast food drives slow food, digitalisation drives craft). I think this is a fad driven by a certain demographic (nostalgic), but also a kind of reverse /ironic status.

In the case of phones though, there’s also a real need. The low-cost dumbphone was  originally designed to appeal to poor users in Asia and especially Africa. They now appeal to people seeking a cheap phone that won’t get stolen, won’t break if dropped, won’t act as a tracking device and won’t run out of battery life in an emergency.

The Nokia 3310, for example, isn’t the future of phones, far from it, but it is part of a longing for simplicity. It’s one species within a complex ecosystem of technical diversity.

Facebook Fatigue

Sums it up pretty well. The other metaphor I quite like is that it’s like you’ve been going to confession for about ten years and you suddenly find out that everything you said to the priest has been sold on to third parties. The other thing about Zuckerberg is I honestly don’t think he understands what the problem is.

Thinking Spaces: the good, the bad (& the totally mad)

I’m getting more and more interested in how physical environments influence how people think. I see this every other week doing talks, sometimes in good venues, sometimes in bad. I also get to see the impact of different types of physical space on workshop outputs on a fairly regualr basis. Takeaway? Not enough thought (or budget) is given to where people think, both individually and collectively.

Some recent examples:

Picture 1 (above): Windowless training room inside a company in the Middle East. Perfectly standard room, nothing wrong with it in a sense. But in no way inspirational.

Picture 2 (below): Same building, but the view from a rest area 10 metres outside the training room. An expansive view seems to open the minds of people to future possibilities in my experience.

Picture 3 (below): Windowless basement at a panel discussion that I attended for some architects of all people. You’d think these, of all people, might be thinking about this.

Picture 4 (below): A view, natural light and fresh air at Imperial College. Decor a bit old fashioned, but I’ve seen far worse.

Picture 5 (below): Another basement (at Imperial College). I’m still not a fan of basements, but this one worked quite well because of natural light simulation that changed by time of day. The colour white can work well too.

Picture 6 (below): This was a great venue. A private room in an historic pub close to Canary Wharf. Water again!

Maddest venue? I once organised a workshop on a boat (HMS President on the River Thames). It worked a treat, partly, I think, because we weren’t on land, but we weren’t really on the water either (it didn’t go anywhere). There was movement (the river plus the tide) and a slight rocking motion, although that might have been the wine. Weird, but it worked.

PS…always use tables with round edges. Never square tables!

Exams Don’t Predict Anything

Commenting in the New York Times last year, Laszlo Bock, then Senior Vice President of People Operations at Google, said that: “For every job, the No. 1 thing we look for is general cognitive ability, and it’s not IQ. It’s learning ability. It’s the ability to process on the fly. It’s the ability to pull together disparate bits of information.Grade Point Averages are worthless as a criteria for hiring, and test scores are worthless. We found that they don’t predict anything.”

Can you teach a computer to be curious?

Good question right? But be careful, reinforcement learning isn’t necessarily the same thing as curiousity to my mind. Also, I think curiousity is on a spectrum. Sure you can build carrot/stick and right/wrong motivations into a machine, but can you build a real passion for serendipitous and perhaps illogical and inconvenient encounters? Is curiousity just an alertness to pattern breaking or is it a fundamental desire to know that cannot be taught to people let alone machines?

I guess we’ll find out sooner or later.

Three good articles on the subject.

Harvard Business Review

Quanta

Wired

Question of the Week

Following on from my rather frivolous brainmail post last week, how about something a bit meatier and more provative? How about this for a question: could memory be partly inherited biologically? For example, could you inherit a memory of an event that occurred before you were born?

Brainmail on the Blog

OMG, he’s only gonna dunnit. Brainmail issue 107 is on the blog. Blinder. You want some news? No time for that this month. It’s that oxymoron called school holidays and I’m a bit freaking stressed out. Even my pumpkins are stressed and refusing to grow. But on the plus side I have discovered freezing cold red wine.

Here’s your issue… for the creative and the curious.

Digital memorials
A Scottish company has been given planning permission to create a memorial garden with no visible grave signs or markers. Loved ones deposit physical mementoes or time capsules in the ground, locating precise plots using smart phones.
Ref: BBC Scotland (UK)

Funeral dog
A dog called Basil has become what is thought to be Britain’s first funeral therapy dog. The 7-year-old Beagle provides an alternative focus while families are discussing arrangements with a Shrewsbury-based funeral director.
Ref: The Times (UK)

Use by date
Scientists at Yale have developed a blood test that can estimate a person’s life-expectancy. The test involves the analysis of nine biomarkers in the human body that indicate how long a body is likely to survive as opposed to how long it’s been out of the womb.
Ref: The Guardian (UK)

Lip-reading CCTV
Researchers from Google and Oxford University that made an AI watch 5,000 hours of television claim that the AI was eventually able to recognize 46.8% of spoken words based purely on the shapes made by speakers’ mouths. So that’s the next stage of CCTV cameras sorted then…CCTV that can lip-read.
Ref: Sunday Times magazine (UK)

Materialistic Tele Vision
A study from the London School of Economics (LSE) claims that TV shows that glamorize luxury lifestyles and material possessions make viewers more likely to hold strongly materialistic views and less likely to support social welfare.
Ref: Media Psychology (UK)

WORD DETECYIVE: JoMo (Joy of Missing out).
Ref: Zeljko (thanks)

Delete social media
A team at the University of Sheffield (UK) claims that the more time children spend online the less happy they are about their school, their appearance, their family and their life in general. Spending just sixty minutes per day on social media reduced happiness by 14% according to the study.
Ref: The Times (UK)

Flick a switch
Scientists at Imperial College London and Glasgow University have created a milkshake that puts people off eating high calorie foods by switching off certain signals to the brain. Future ideas include anti-binge-eating injections.
Ref: The Times (UK)

Food trends
How about a Moringa leaf salad? No? Then what about a bison steak or some spirulina algae? All washed down with some cactus water no doubt.
Ref: Wall Street Journal (US)

The way we live now
Doctors in the UK have been advised not to comfort patients by touching them because this could result in legal action. Similarly, carers have been told not to touch or hug foster children for similar reasons.
Ref: Guardian (UK) and Matt.

Half a house
Can’t afford a house? How about buying half of one and finishing the other half yourself later on when you’ve got more money?
Ref: BBC World Hacks (UK) and Matt again.

Did you know?
That Stalin was named Time magazine’s person of the year twice. Once in 1939 and again in 1942.
Ref: Time (US)

THE NUMBERS

30 per cent of Lego sets now contain weapons.
Ref: Guardian (UK)

34 per cent of UK homes have just one person living in them. In India, the number is 5 per cent.
Ref: The Week (UK)

The average Fortune 500 CEO has 28-minutes of uninterrupted time per day.
Ref: The Great Acceleration: How the World is Getting Faster, Faster by Robert Colville.

Only 4 per cent of Chinese citizens hold a passport.
Ref: Financial Times (UK)

It has been estimated that Bitcoin guzzles more electricity annually than the whole of Nigeria (population 200 million).
Ref: Technology Review (US)

It’s been estimated that ½ million older people in the UK go without seeing or touching another human being for at least 5 days each week.
Ref: The Guardian (UK)

More than 95% of homes contain at least one smartphone. You probably knew that. But did you know that the use of cellphones by children under eight-years-of-age is ten times higher than it was in 2011?
Ref: CNN (US)

74 per cent of children aged 6-12 spend less than sixty minutes playing outside per day. HM Prisons recommends that prisoners spend at least 60-minutes outside every day for physical and mental health.
Ref: The Times (UK)

85 per cent of dog owners in America claim that their pet sometimes suffers from stress or anxiety. By way of comparison 80 per cent of people in the US say they are frequently or sometimes stressed.
Ref: Harper’s (US)

Move then half of men in the UK have damaged their home by doing DIY. Half have abandoned a DIY project and a third have covered up a DIY failure.
Ref: Daly Mail (UK)

Britain has invaded all the world’s countries with the exception of 22 (although the names and borders of some countries have since changed).
Ref: Prospect (UK)

WW1 killed roughly 16 million people. WW2 around 55 million. But while the global population rose from 3 to 7 billion between 1960 and 2010, the number of war related deaths fell to 180,000 per year during the Cold war, 100,000 per year during the 1990s and 55,000 per year between 2000 and 2010.
Ref: The Economist (UK)

Crime committed by people aged over 60-years-of-age has risen by 35 per cent over the past 10 years.
Ref: The Oldie (UK)

67 people were killed in Britain during between 2013 and 2016 because they were driving while using their phones. This does not include people killed while putting their phones down, picking them up or dropping them whilst driving.
Ref: Daily Telegraph (UK)

BOOK OF THE MONTH
Silence in the Age of Noise by Erling Kagge

WEBSIGHT OF THE MONTH
Spin watch, public interest journalism and investigations into PR ‘impropaganda’
Spinwatch.org

QUOTE OF THE MONTH

“We look at the world once, in childhood. The rest is memory.”
Louise Gluck. (Quoted in Conde Nast Traveller).

An anti-men trend?


Not sure if it’s just me, but misandrous attitudes and behaviour seem to be on the rise. A reaction to misogyny? I’m not sure if this is an example or not, but ‘stamped out’ is quite agressive. Imagine, for a moment, if the quote was reversed and said ‘mediocre women must be stamped out.’