New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com

Here’s my map of global game changers & regional risks. I was going to wait until September to publish this, but it’s been done early so what the heck. I’ll post a longer explanatory note about process and contents tomorrow.

If you want to download a high resolution version click here.

If you would like a print version for your wall (white out text for easier reading on paper) just get in touch and I’ll send you a different file. I suggest you print full colour at and least A3 size. A4 is too small.

I can also send out A3, A2 and A1 colour prints for a modest fee (enough to cover print, cardboard tube and post), but note that beyond A3 size the print cost isn’t cheap.

BTW, this was my original risk list. It’s changed a little and please note that about 5% of the list isn’t serious (most entries about global risks and the end of the world are a bit heavy so I needed a little light relief).

My initial (rough) list of risks…
State sponsored cyber-crime

Loss of bio-diversity

Income-wealth polarisation

Further Russian expansion

Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure

Exchange rate volatility

Chronic labour shortages

Mass unemployment caused by automation

Increase in economic protectionism

EU incrementalism

EU collapse

Inept institutions focussed on their own survival

Oil/Gas price shock

Severe water shortages

Commodity price volatility

Evaporation of liquidity

Global financial system collapse

Rapid rise in US interest rates

Severe deflation

Inflation at >10%

Global pandemic

Regulatory change

‘Weaponization’ of finance

Biological terrorism

Nuclear terrorism

Loss of antibiotic resistance

Destabilisation of China

Un-controlled mass-migration

Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen

Unforeseen events

Unforeseen combinations of events

Widespread collapse of trust

Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)

Geo-engineering accident

Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems

Total war

Ocean acidification

Globalisation backlash

Mental health epidemic

Decline in human intelligence

Mega-tsunami

Resource nationalism

Failure of global governance

Hostile message received from space

Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)

Moral collapse

Robot uprising

Major synthetic biology accident

EMF radiation from mobile devices

Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild

Verneshot expulsion (look it up)

India/Pakistan war

Major under-pricing of new risks

Geomagnetic reversal

Giant methane burp

Gamma ray burst in space

Rogue black hole

Major asteroid impact on earth

Alien invasion

Tech-bubble

Clean-tech bubble

Crowd-sourced criminal activity

African disunity

Cultural rejection of new technology

Collapse of copyright laws

Israel/Iran war

Weaponization of near-space

Collapse of insurance markets

Rare-earth mineral shortages

Atomisation of human attention

Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles

Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz

Rogue customer

Rising religious violence

Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption

Information overload

Decline of practical skills

Mega-earthquake in a major city

Increasing frequency & severity of storms

Major inland-flooding

Major pollution/chemical spill

Declining air quality

Cyber-disruption to logistics networks

Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest

UG99 (Google it)

Rogue employee

Rogue politician

People trying to predict Black Swan events

Believing that people will always act rationally

Digital misinformation pandemics

Lone-wolf terror attacks

Wolf-pack terror attacks

Original drawing on the kitchen table…

Getting closer. Just arguing with myself about where certain ‘events’ should be placed. As you can see it’s not 100% serious (hey it gets a bit heavy in places). I was going to add Donald Trump as a global risk, but it’s a map about the future and it’s not that silly!

Here’s my initial thinking for my risk map. Probabilities are guestimates and should not be taken too seriously. Impact is generally defined as economic impact and is again only an estimate.

Anyone like to suggest anything else?

Major Risks 2015+

State sponsored cyber-crime
Loss of bio-diversity
Income-wealth polarisation
Further Russian expansion
Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure
Exchange rate volatility
Chronic labour shortages
Mass unemployment caused by automation
Increase in economic protectionism
EU incrementalism
EU collapse
Inept institutions focussed on their own survival
Oil/Gas price shock
Severe water shortages
Commodity price volatility
Evaporation of liquidity
Global financial system collapse
Rapid rise in US interest rates
Severe deflation
Inflation at >10%
Global pandemic
Regulatory change
‘Weaponization’ of finance
Biological terrorism
Nuclear terrorism
Loss of antibiotic resistance
Destabilisation of China
Un-controlled mass-migration
Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen
Unforeseen events
Unforeseen combinations of events
Widespread collapse of trust
Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)
Geo-engineering accident
Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems
Total war
Ocean acidification
Globalisation backlash
Mental health epidemic
Decline in human intelligence
Mega-tsunami
Resource nationalism
Failure of global governance
Hostile message received from space
Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)
Moral collapse
Robot uprising
Major synthetic biology accident
EMF radiation from mobile devices
Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild
Verneshot expulsion (look it up)
India/Pakistan war
Major under-pricing of new risks
Geomagnetic reversal
Giant methane burp
Gamma ray burst in space
Rogue black hole
Major asteroid impact on earth
Alien invasion
Tech-bubble
Clean-tech bubble
Crowd-sourced criminal activity
African disunity
Cultural rejection of new technology
Collapse of copyright laws
Israel/Iran war
Weaponization of near-space
Collapse of insurance markets
Rare-earth mineral shortages
Atomisation of human attention
Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles
Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
Rogue customer
Rising religious violence
Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption
Information overload
Decline of practical skills
Mega-earthquake in a major city
Increasing frequency & severity of storms
Major inland-flooding
Major pollution/chemical spill
Declining air quality
Cyber-disruption to logistics networks
Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest
UG99 (Google it)
Rogue employee
Rogue politician
People trying to predict Black Swan events
Believing that people will always act rationally
Digital misinformation pandemics
Lone-wolf terror attacks
Wolf-pack terror attacks

To be continued…