Richard Watson Videos on YouTube etc

Apologies about the dreadful headline to this post, but I needed to put a few things in one place to help people looking for various videos, podcasts and articles, most of which are scattered all over the place.  So here they are a few links with a brief description of each. At the end of the videos I’ve added a handful of other items.  If you can’t find what you are looking for contact me via the contact me page at nowandnext.com

VIDEOS

Lego Future City competition (2018)

The future on a single sheet of paper (2017)

The Future of Energy (Adelaide, 2017)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV21yBaGjb4&feature=youtu.be

The Future of Ageing Well (Panel, 2017)
https://openstate.com.au/speakers/richard-watson

Talking to Adam Morgan about my 2017 roadmap of trends and technologies

Some funny AI out-takes (2020)

Clifford Chance Talk about digital culture (2016)

Royal Society of Arts ( 5 trends for the next 50 years)

Royal Society of Arts  (How the digital age is changing our thinking)

TEDx Munich (The Perils of Prediction)

TEDx Lodz  (Thinking Spaces)

Barilla Milan  (2012) (Eating in 2030)

Work Tech 2011 (The future of work)

Communities in Control Conference – Part 1

Communities in Control Conference  – Part 2

Perils of Prediction (short version for NHS)

HBAA Futures Assembly (on the downsides of digital)

RADIO

ABC Radio ‘Big Ideas’ in conversation about Digital Vs. Human (2016)
Click here
https://radio.abc.net.au/programitem/pg0JGO1mNV?play=true

ABC Radio ‘Future Tense’ on my book Digital vs. Human (2016)
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/digital-vs-human/7379044

ABC Future Tense (On the paperless office)

ABC Radio National  (On Work and lunch  with Geraldine Doogue)

ABC Radio National (Future Files with Philip Adams)

ABC Radio National  (On thinking spaces with Alan Saunders)

NEWSPAPER ARTICLES

Daily Telegraph (UK) – Article about life in the Year 2050

Sun Herald (Aus) – On how digital devices are changing how we behave

Courier Mail (Aus) – Some predictions for 2011 (made January 2011)

Various ‘Fast Company’ (US) about innovation

PODCASTS

An interview from Dec 2020. The New Abnormal

Open 4 Business (January 2021)

A weird one. Me in a cheese shop talking about climate, loneliness, humanity, AI and, of course, Trump. (July 2018).
https://tinyurl.com/y9ajju6m

SCENARIO PLANNING

An example of a set of scenarios for the Future of Public Libraries

That’s all folks…well it’s not, but that’s more than enough.

Debt as a weapon

So…

Not much going on today. I should be traveling to Italy, but after the chaos last year I thought that wise men might stay at home. Given that it’s just started to snow this may yet prove to be a good move.

Two things in the newspapers caught my eye today. First is a comment from Pedro Nuno Santos, VP of the Socialist Party in Portugal. He says that Portuguese debt could be used as a weapon against the rest of Europe, Germany and France in particular. Portugal could simply refuse to pay, thereby created a ‘nuclear’ default and financial meltdown.

As someone once said, I forget who, if I owe someone $100 I have a problem. If I owe someone $1 billion, they have a problem. So the large amount of US debt held by China is China’s problem?

Not quite sure how this links, but I would not be at all surprised if we have a military government in at least one European country (Greece?) by the end of next year. Actually, I think the link is debt to austerity to rage to physical actions to crackdowns to supposed stability.

The second thing was much milder. An obituary for George Whitman, who ran Shakespeare and Co, the Parisian bookshop. I loved the comment about his bookshop from Sylia Beach that the shop was a : “Rag -and-bone- shop of the heart.”

Burning Man

The week-long desert festival known as Burning Man might seem like an odd place for Silicon Valley types and assorted artists and free-spirits to unwind, especially since cell-phones won’t work, the internet is more or less unavailable (sometimes due to dust storms) and business is outlawed.

Then again, maybe it all makes perfect sense. After all, if you work alone the idea of physically mingling with 50,000 people is quite attractive. If you look at a screen all day then building giants sculptures (and often setting fire to them) does have a kind of primal attraction.

And if you work in a highly orchestrated corporation then the idea of a week long ‘out of office’ jam session is quite contagious.

Most of all I suspect that the real reason people enjoy this festival is a mixture of community and physical accomplishment overlayed with a joyous lack of technology and unwanted digital interruption.

Or is there another explanation?

Zombies…

Here’s a little taste of the next What’s Next report out soon….

You may not have noticed this but we are becoming increasingly fascinated with the undead. Over the past few years, TV shows and computer games about Zombies have been invading movie theatres, living rooms and computers.

So what’s going on here? Why are we so interested in something that can’t talk and doesn’t mind getting shot? Perhaps it’s not what these creatures are but rather what they represent. Maybe zombies (and vampires) represent a subconscious fear about the consequences of untethered scientific research? Or maybe it’s to do with a fear of disease (vampires equals HIV/Aids, SARS or perhaps a loss of purity and innocence).

Better still, what if our fascination with the undead is rather related to how we feel about everyday life? Maybe Night of the Living Dead is analogous with working late at the office? You might even draw parallels between blasting 200 zombies with an automatic rifle and rapidly deleting hundreds of emails in the office on a Monday morning. You can spend all day doing either, but like tweets and Facebook updates they just keep on coming.

I think that’s it. On a superficial level there is pleasure in just destroying things, but at a deeper level what these things represent is the Internet.

We are fearful about the Internet – and perhaps machines in general – consuming us rather than the other way around. It is about having our life (our souls)  taken away from us by things that cannot be deleted, cannot be paused and cannot be ignored.

Things that won’t talk to us and don’t seem to understand what it means to be human.

Trends for 2012

I’m getting seriously worried about Europe. I think something may happen just before or just after Christmas. I hope I’m wrong. Meantime, here’s a amended list of 2012 trends. I will settle on a final list of ten in a week or so and then start expanding on each trend a little.

Uncertainty
Volatility
Anxiety
Harshness
Turning inwards
Emotional warmth
Intrinsic value
Tethered data
Voice
Textual relations

2012 Trends

The more I think about 2012 the more I think that there is no observable trend – apart from uncertainty and volatility, which in turn create anxiety. I think it’s more or less true that anything could happen.

However, an interesting tiny tidbit by Tyler Brule in the FT over the weekend. He mentions that consumers are looking for authenticity, patina, direction and warmth. I think those last two are rather interesting. People are indeed looking for leadership, vision and direction, the only problem is we are not thinking and will settle for anyone that gives the illusion of these things.

Warmth is especially astute. I think people are indeed looking for security, comfort and a feeling of physical and emotional affection from other people, especially when so many relationships have been eroded by digital mediation.

BTW, for more on 2012 trends click the tag below…

Origin of ‘Talking Heads’ ?

I seem to remember reading once that the band Talking Heads took their name from a movie, a book or perhaps a US government scenario where a highly secret group got together and those individuals that couldn’t make it in person were ‘represented’ by animated heads (i.e. a person’s voice was replicated via a 3-D machine in the form of a human head).

I’ve tried to find a reference to this but I have failed.

Does this ring a bell with anyone? David Byrne – are you out there?

😉

Libaries – a case for renewal

I met Dr Wendy Schultz a few days ago at a horizon scanning symposium at the MOD. She’s just sent me this, which I rather like. Please note: She wrote this NOT me, so all credit where it’s due. Note I’d added sources to comments.

Sunset Strategies for Library 2.0: a provocation.
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures, March 2006

This too shall pass: The ongoing Library 2.0 debate (1) frames library renewal within the current trends transforming our information infrastructure. But those trends themselves will evolve, even mutate, under pressure from emerging change. A futures perspective asks us to reconnect this dialogue to the grand sweep of time from the treasured past to the adventure of the future – and to put people and meaning at the center of our concerns.

What are libraries? Libraries are not just collections of documents and books, they are conversations, they are convocations of people, ideas, and artifacts in dynamic exchange. Libraries are not merely in communities, they are communities: they preserve and promote community memories; they provide mentors not only for the exploration of stored memory, but also for the creation of new artifacts of memory. What was the library of the past? A symbol of a society that cared about its attainments, that treasured ideas, that looked ahead multiple generations. Librarians were stewards, educators, intimate with the knowledge base and the minds who produced it. Librarians today are not just inventory management biobots: they are people with a unique understanding of the documents they compile and catalog, and the relationships among those documents.

Let’s borrow a page from analysts charting shifts in our economy’s “chain of meaning” (2). They see a rising ladder of value progressing from commodity to product to service to experience: e.g., from selling coffee beans to selling Maxwell House to serving coffee at Dunkin Donuts to providing an exotic Starbucks’ coffee permutation in its chattering, WiFi, jazz café atmosphere. How does that progression look superimposed on the Library 2.0 debate, with additions both from history and emerging issues of change?

Library 1.0: Commodity
The library from Alexandria to the industrial era: Books are commodities, collected, inventoried, categorised and warehoused within libraries. Libraries represent a resource base, contributing to educating the labour force, to supporting innovation processes fueling growth, and to informing the present and the future – whether in the neighborhood, in academia, or in business.

Library 2.0: Product
How should the library package its commodity – books – as products in an environment that disintermediates, dematerialises, and decentralises? Chad and Miller’s essay, and the debates and conversations around it, raise this question and answer it with the characteristics of our emerging information infrastructure: the library is everywhere, barrier-free, and participatory. Collaborate with Amazon; provide digital downloads of books; create a global, and globally accessible, catalog; invite readers to tag and comment. Yet as more information becomes more accessible, people will still need experienced tour guides – Amazon’s customer recommendations are notoriously open to manipulation; tagclouds offer diverse connections, not focussed expertise. This will drive the transition to Library 3.0: the 3D service.

Library 3.0 – Web 3D to Library 3D: Service.
There are SecondLife (3) subscribers who spend more than forty hours a week online, immersed in its virtual graphic world. Digital natives take 2.0 for granted; they are buzzing over Web 3D. Carrying Chad and Miller’s argument through this next phase transition, we arrive at virtual collections in the 3D world, where books themselves may have avatars and online personalities. But the avalanche of material available will put a premium on service, on tailoring information to needs, and on developing participatory relationships with customers. So while books may get in your 3D face all by themselves, people will prefer personal introductions – they will want a VR info coach. Who’s the best librarian avatar? How many Amazon stars has your avatar collected from satisfied customers? This could create librarian “superstars” based on buzz and customer ratings. People will collect librarians rather than books – the ability not just to organise, but also to annotate and compare books and other information sources, from a variety of useful perspectives.

With Library 3D, we have strayed far into virtual reality in the flight from bricks and mortar into software. Yet many businesses are demonstrating that storefronts can still draw customers, if they offer a compelling experience: a clearly defined environment that is authentic (true and good); humane (emotional, irrational); experiential (designed, theatrical); impassioned; relevant (understandable, timely); and participatory (open, lived, shared). (4) What would Library 4.0 be like? It will completely connect the digital and the sensual, moving from virtual reality (VR) to augmented reality (AR): all the services of Library 3D projected over our immediate surroundings.

Library 4.0, the neo-library: Experience.
This will be the library for the aesthetic economy, the dream society, which will need libraries as mind gyms; libraries as idea labs; libraries as art salons. But let’s be clear: Library 4.0 will not replace Libraries 1.0 through 3.0; it will absorb them. The library as aesthetic experience will have space for all the library’s incarnations: storage (archives, treasures); data retrieval (networks – reference rooms); and commentary and annotation (salon). Available as physical places in the library “storefront,” they will also be mobile, as AR overlays we can view (via glasses, contacts, projections) anywhere. Both virtual and augmented 3D reality will enable us to manipulate data via immersive, visual, metaphorical, sculptural, holographic information theatres: the research and analytic experience will merge with drawing, dance, and drama.

But Library 4.0 will add a new mode, knowledge spa: meditation, relaxation, immersion in a luxury of ideas and thought. In companies, this may take the form of retreat space for thought leaders, considered an investment in innovation; in public libraries, the luxurious details will require private partners as sponsors providing the sensory treats. Library 4.0 revives the old image of a country house library, and renovates it: from a retreat, a sanctuary, a pampered experience with information – subtle thoughts, fine words, exquisite brandy, smooth coffee, aromatic cigar, smell of leather, rustle of pages – to the dream economy’s library, the LIBRARY: a WiFREE space, a retreat from technohustle, with comfortable chairs, quiet, good light, coffee and single malt. You know, the library.(5)

I’ll meet you there.

SIRI

Apple’s iPhone 4S offers a tantalising glimpse of the future in the form of SIRI, which allows users to use normal conversation to send messages or ask questions.

But this is a very basic technology.

In a decade or so, probably less, you will be able to have a personal digital or avatar-based assistant available in a variety of forms (human, aliens, animals, fantasy characters, Jeremy Clarkson?) that are animated and have personalities. We will use them as secretaries, assistants, playthings and occasionally partners to help us navigate the world and get things done. Basic versions of this technology might also be called synthetic personalities, digital humans or digital ‘bots and some forms of this technology already exist in customer services roles or on websites, usually to save money or to deal with frequency asked questions or boring tasks.

In the future they will also be used in as assistants in education, especially younger years schooling where they will teach repetitive rules based tasks such as language or mathematics. They will also appear in aged care, reminding elderly people to take their medicine or simply acting as digital companions. It is also likely that they will form the interface – or just the face – between humans and robots in the future.

Avatars assistants will also be highly personalisable in the sense regional accents could be chosen or personality flaws and moods added. There may even be the option of getting the personality of an avatar assistant to mirror that of its ‘owner’ or an owner starting to adapt their own personality in line with that of their avatar – something referred to as the Proteus effect.

And don’t forget that they will be connected to the internet, which will itself be connected to virtually everything else. Therefore you will, be able to ask you avatar assistant to turn the oven on, run a bath, dim the lights or play computer games with you.

Click here to watch Dave Evans, Chief Futurist, Digital Assistants, from Cisco talk about some aspects of this.

Moore’s law gone mad

Moore’s Law says computers double their processing ability every 18-24 months, but imagine if this sped up exponentially to every two hours. That is one potential consequence of machines with AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). If computers continue to advance at their current rate, this could be a mere 20-30 years away.

Intel is already reinventing the transistor by harnessing photons and quantum properties to increase processing power. Whether it happens suddenly, or over time, it appears that machines will become increasingly sophisticated and able to do the work of humans.

Any true AGI would need at least four capabilities to be like us: to recognise objects, handle complex dialogue, be manually dextrous, and understand social situations from someone else’s point of view. Children come to learn each of these slowly until the age of eight, when all are present. There is no reason why robots could not be made to deal with whatever tasks they are required to do, whether it is to put groceries away or to babysit a child. But will they be able to fall in love or mourn someone’s death?

Some say that the agricultural and industrial revolutions were parallels, because of the rapid pace of change compared to what had gone before. Over the past 7,000 years, output doubled every 900 years. Now output doubles about every 15 years, about 60 times as fast as in the previous seven millennia.

The next radical jump will come from two shortages in our economy: human time and human attention. If robots are able to take over what people do (and two-thirds of a nation’s income is paid directly for wages), then there will be a massive jump in output, freeing humans to do other things. But what?

It is cheaper to build robots than it is to pay someone over a lifetime. But perhaps the value of human work would rise, with some people (perhaps robots?) paying to be served by humans rather than robots.

Robots that do solely cognitive work may live in virtual environments, or even be tiny, while others will exist in human environments and be more lifelike. Whatever the outcome, it seems certain that on on level that there will be a merger of biological and non-biological intelligence.