Looking without seeing

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This is a good one. Did you know that the average ‘dwell time’ (horrible phrase) for the Mona Lisa is 17 seconds? In other words, the amount of time people spend looking at the most famous painting in the world is a quarter of a minute.

What are they looking at? What are they looking for?

I’m using this ‘fact’ as an opener for a workshop with PWC in Warsaw. The point isn’t so much that looking for longer with reveal something of importance (although it may) but that deep looking will reveal other, non-related, thoughts that could have considerable value.

Try it today. Fix your eyes on something, a tree, a cloud, a building, for between 3-5 minutes (please don’t select a phone or computer or anything that moves or makes a disruptive sound) and literally ‘see’ what happens.

Kanye West US President?

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It’s been pointed out to me (I totally missed it – thanks Paddy) that my not very serious prediction that Kim Kardashian might run for US President has been overshadowed by the real-life possibility that her husband, Kanye West, might run in 2020. Reminds me of the line that fact is becoming more unbelievable than fiction. As for Donald Trump don’t even go there, although if you really want to you should read the New York Times piece on Donald Vs. The Pope.

What am I up to? Doing some slides for PWC about thinking (we’ll see how that does down!) and avoiding getting the next issue of What’s Next done. Also, vaguely thinking about what my next and possibly very final map might be. Either a map of human wants and needs (think Maslow but in far more detail) or a kind of ‘greatest hits’ vaguely based upon my 2010+ map. Something with a narrative and something that makes people think. After this I’m taking up oil painting.

OMG

40% of Americans are expecting Jesus to return by 2050.

40% of Americans are expecting Jesus to return by 2050.

 

Approximately 40% of Americans are expecting Jesus to return by the year 2050.

More on this from PEW Research Center on this link.

(Photo by yours truly in Athens last week. I think he’s been waiting quite a while).

Global Risks Radar

New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com

New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com

So here, once again, is the finished version of my new map of global risks (plus a few charming ways the world could end). The radar is obviously divided into four by impact and probability. Impact is a guess at economic impact, while probability is a guess at likelihood. I know some people will argue about where specific events are located, but that’s the whole point – to created argument and debate about potential risks. The most serious events are be located top right, the least serious bottom left, although personally I’ve always had an interest in low probability high impact events (the so-called wildcards in scenario planning speak). These can be found bottom left. On the whole the map is serious, but there are a few events that aren’t – purely to keep people amused and awake.

In terms of process, a list of risks was generated using desk research. Sources include the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report, The Towers Watson Extreme Risks report, the EY Risk Report and various other publications along with material developed in various workshops at London Business School.

What do I worry about?

Apart from the next map, my biggest worry for a high impact event is another global financial meltdown (far worse than last time due to increased debt levels, a lack of liquidity and the newly networked nature of fear). This could be triggered by rising US interest rates, although the actual trigger is irrelevant. There is so much stress built up in the system I believe almost anything could trigger a panic sell off. I suspect that QE won’t work again either, although one might argue that QE is itself a risk and should be on the map.

I’m also concerned by a couple of other things on the map, but I’m not going to draw further attention to these. Water is an issue globally, although I’m writing this in the middle of an English rainstorm. Income polarisation worries me too.

Is there anything I’d like to happen? A message from space would be wonderful, although perhaps not a hostile one. A globalisation backlash could have benefits, although I suspect that the associated nationalism and tribalism wouldn’t be pleasant. Any favourites? Got to be human stupidity and Kim Kardashian!

Recommended listening while looking at the radar is, of course, Golden Earring’s Radar Love (1973 version here).

So to sum up, as it says on the map, most things here won’t happen so drinks lots of water, apply sunscreen and try to be a good human for future generations. Thank you.

Link to map.

Link to my other maps.

Risk Map 2015+

New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com

New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com

Here’s my map of global game changers & regional risks. I was going to wait until September to publish this, but it’s been done early so what the heck. I’ll post a longer explanatory note about process and contents tomorrow.

If you want to download a high resolution version click here.

If you would like a print version for your wall (white out text for easier reading on paper) just get in touch and I’ll send you a different file. I suggest you print full colour at and least A3 size. A4 is too small.

I can also send out A3, A2 and A1 colour prints for a modest fee (enough to cover print, cardboard tube and post), but note that beyond A3 size the print cost isn’t cheap.

BTW, this was my original risk list. It’s changed a little and please note that about 5% of the list isn’t serious (most entries about global risks and the end of the world are a bit heavy so I needed a little light relief).

My initial (rough) list of risks…
State sponsored cyber-crime

Loss of bio-diversity

Income-wealth polarisation

Further Russian expansion

Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure

Exchange rate volatility

Chronic labour shortages

Mass unemployment caused by automation

Increase in economic protectionism

EU incrementalism

EU collapse

Inept institutions focussed on their own survival

Oil/Gas price shock

Severe water shortages

Commodity price volatility

Evaporation of liquidity

Global financial system collapse

Rapid rise in US interest rates

Severe deflation

Inflation at >10%

Global pandemic

Regulatory change

‘Weaponization’ of finance

Biological terrorism

Nuclear terrorism

Loss of antibiotic resistance

Destabilisation of China

Un-controlled mass-migration

Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen

Unforeseen events

Unforeseen combinations of events

Widespread collapse of trust

Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)

Geo-engineering accident

Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems

Total war

Ocean acidification

Globalisation backlash

Mental health epidemic

Decline in human intelligence

Mega-tsunami

Resource nationalism

Failure of global governance

Hostile message received from space

Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)

Moral collapse

Robot uprising

Major synthetic biology accident

EMF radiation from mobile devices

Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild

Verneshot expulsion (look it up)

India/Pakistan war

Major under-pricing of new risks

Geomagnetic reversal

Giant methane burp

Gamma ray burst in space

Rogue black hole

Major asteroid impact on earth

Alien invasion

Tech-bubble

Clean-tech bubble

Crowd-sourced criminal activity

African disunity

Cultural rejection of new technology

Collapse of copyright laws

Israel/Iran war

Weaponization of near-space

Collapse of insurance markets

Rare-earth mineral shortages

Atomisation of human attention

Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles

Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz

Rogue customer

Rising religious violence

Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption

Information overload

Decline of practical skills

Mega-earthquake in a major city

Increasing frequency & severity of storms

Major inland-flooding

Major pollution/chemical spill

Declining air quality

Cyber-disruption to logistics networks

Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest

UG99 (Google it)

Rogue employee

Rogue politician

People trying to predict Black Swan events

Believing that people will always act rationally

Digital misinformation pandemics

Lone-wolf terror attacks

Wolf-pack terror attacks

 

Original drawing on the kitchen table…

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