“To acquire knowledge, one must study; but to acquire wisdom one must observe.” Marilyn vos Savant in the Toronto Globe and Mail.
Scenario Planning: How To Do It (Part 1)
Having just co-authored a book on how to do scenario planning (FutureVision by Richard Watson and Oliver Freeman) I thought it might be worth passing on a few tricks. Here is part one of my top 20 tips for creating practical scenarios, but first a very brief outline of the process. Please note that this process has been shortened and simplified for this article. If you would like the expanded process get in touch (richard@deletethisbitnowandnext.com)
Stage 1: Develop the framing question(s)
Stage 2: Examine past and present drivers of change
Stage 3: Brainstorm future drivers of change
Stage 4: Identify the critical drivers
Stage 5: Build a scenario matrix
Stage 6: Develop scenario logic
Stage 7: Build the scenario narratives
Stage 8: Create timelines linking future to present
Stage 9: Map the strategic implications
Stage 10: Develop proactive and reactive strategies
(Conduct ongoing scanning and monitoring)
Now, some tips…
Tip # 1: Get enough buy-in from the get-go
Ensure that you have enough support for the project from the start. Ideally find a senior supporter who has been involved with scenarios before or supports the theory of doing the project. Also make sure that support is as wide as possible and not limited to any one department or business unit. If the prevalent attitude within the organization is that the project is a waste of time and money this will almost certainly turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Tip # 2: What do you want to know?
Start with a tightly focussed question about what it is that you want to know. Simply asking ‘what does the future look like?’ is next to useless. The subject is too broad.
For example, if you are a retailer you might be interested in exploring the extent to which retail moves to mobile devices or virtual stores. Feel free to revise or change the question at any time throughout the process though.
Tip # 3: Give it enough time
A rigorous scenario-thinking project will take a minimum of 2-3 months. If you only have a few days you are totally wasting your time. A key component of scenario thinking is conversation and sometimes the conversation won’t flow no matter what you do. It also requires periods of reflection, which by definition cannot always be scheduled in the diary or with meeting reminders. If you rush things you will just come up with the obvious stuff. Finding out what’s not being said or seen is a key part of the process and this takes time.
Tip # 4: Embrace diversity
Groups of experts are useless for scenario thinking. They will either all agree with each other (group think) or will say nothing at all due to peer pressure. However, by themselves experts can provide good insight. Mixed with other people with different skills and experience things can get very interesting indeed. Diversity is critical with scenario thinking so resist silos and homogenous groups at all costs. The trick is to mix things up in terms of age, gender, skills, experience, functions and so on.
A good size scenario building team is generally 3-6 people, although this is merely the tip of the iceberg. When it comes to the initial research, workshops and key meetings this can be expanded significantly.
Tip # 5: Quantity is quality when it comes to drivers
After you have spoken with people – both internally and externally – the next stage is generally to unearth a series of driving forces that are influencing or changing the external environment. This can be a messy stage, because it’s not clear at the start what’s important and what isn’t. Moreover, when it comes to drivers (call them trends if you really must) quantity really is quality. You need to generate dozens of them and have people running around to check them and to find more.
A good way of creating drivers is to use STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, Politics), You might prefer STEEPEN (Society, Technology, Economy, Energy, Politics, Environment, Nature) or STEEEPA (Social, Technical, Economic, Environmental, Educational, Political and Aesthetic).
Tip # 6: Is that really the answer?
When you get to your first shortlist of drivers, ensure that the drivers you select really are drivers and not a consequence of other, far deeper, drivers. For example, a shift to social media might be a consequence of something far deeper.
Tip # 7: Naming the scenarios
The naming of scenarios is really important. If you have to explain to people what the scenarios mean you have failed. They should be self-explanatory. For example, a scenario called “Lord of the Flies’ needs little further explanation.
Tip #8: Build a narrative
Ensure that the scenarios are properly fleshed out and that you produce a time line that links each future back to the present. The narratives need to be compelling and should be written in the future tense so as to transport people into this world. A good trick is to write each of the scenarios from the perspective of a different person that is in someway connected to the organization. For example, if the scenarios are for government then write one scenario from the perspective of someone running the government (a senior minister perhaps), one from the perspective of someone working for the government at a more junior level, one from the perspective of a user of government services (a voter) and perhaps one from the perspective of someone supplying services to the government.
Tip # 9: Don’t keep it all to yourself
A scenario project that is totally outsourced is missing out on the knowledge and freshness of those outside the organization can provide. On the other hand, a scenario project that is wholly outsourced is missing out on the experience and wisdom of those that work inside the client organization. Mix things up a bit and create a team that’s a mixture of both.
Tip # 10: Don’t pitch the timeframe too close
If it’s 2012 there’s a tendency to pitch the thinking in 2020 because that’s a nice round number and links with phrases like ‘2020 Vision’ and all that. Resist.
2020 is only 7 years away and your thinking won’t necessarily extend much beyond the present. What you may find is that all you end up with is what’s happing right now and then labelling it ‘the future’. Go further out. Ten years is really the minimum and your thinking will be challenged far better if you go out 15 or even 20 years. There is the argument that 20 years is just too far away to be practical, but remember that in the final stages you always link the scenarios back to the present day.
To follow next week…tips 11-20.
1970-2040 Timeline
Yes, that’s right, a timeline for a period of history that hasn’t happened yet. This visualization is now done and I should have a URL for a high-resolution file version in a day or two (I’ll blog with the link as soon as it’s available).
The timeline is based in some of the thinking contained in my new book, FutureVision, and the point, I guess, is that the future forks. We think we are heading in one direction when suddenly reality changes direction. The events of 9 September 2001 might be a good example.
When available the high-resolution timeline will be best printed A3 colour.
Future Vision – Interviews & Reviews
There’s been a flurry of activity on the review front over the past week in Australia. So far we’ve had reviews in The Age, Sydney Morning Herald, Canberra Times and the Australian Financial Review. Looks like I’m doing a radio interview with Geraldine Doogue on ABC Radio on the 23rd November too.
Here’s a snippet: “What will the world look like in 2040? Watson and Freeman (in what often reads like a particularly slick business lecture, but which also draws on such diverse sources as E. M. Forster and Blaise Pascal), acknowledge that any single prediction about the future will, more than likely, be wrong. Probability and chance make a volatile mix.”
Not sure about the slick thing. I thought we were just being ourselves! Attached (with a bit of luck) is an audio file with Oliver doing an interview with John Stokes for ABC Coast FM (Queensland). OLIVER FREEMAN to air (14-minutes long).
BTW, tomorrow I’m going to blog some tricks and tricks for building scenarios.
The Bifurcation of Bling
Have you noticed how ‘Bling’ is booming in developing countries such as Russia and China whilst at the same time ideas such as frugality and sustainability are taking hold in other parts of the world? Well apart from the economic situations being different, another reason could be that consumption patterns change significantly as prosperity develops.
A few years ago two economists called Kerwin Kofi Charles and Erik Hurst at the University of Chicago found that, all other things being equal, African Americans tended to spend more of their income on cars, clothes and jewellery. Another study has put a figure against this. Typically, an African American family will spend 25% more on cars, jewellery, clothing and personal care compared to a white counterpart, with the difference being made up by less expenditure on education.
This isn’t just a lazy racial stereotyping either. Looking at different countries similar patterns emerge with lower income groups spending lavishly on luxury goods. So what’s the explanation? According to the economists what’s going on is that poorer people spend on luxury goods to prove to others in their immediate peer group that they are not poor. Hence what a gold Rolex says is not “I’m rich” but rather “I came from a poor background and did well”.
As individuals (and nations) get richer this spending shifts from ostentatious products to more discrete services and experiences. A shift also occurs towards spending on goods that are externally directed (cars and clothes for instance) to goods that are less visible to the outside world. In other words countries, like people, want to show off how wealthy they are but eventually this need wears off.
This finding obviously has significant implications for luxury goods companies although one suspects that they know this already. As for what’s next, expect time and space to become the ultimate luxuries along with goods and services that are only available to a limited number of people that fulfil certain non-financial criteria.
How we die
So here I am at 7.10 pm (I know, get off the computer) wondering what the heck to say today when an email from Bradley pops up. Consider it stolen I say. Bottom line seems to be to relax, watch what you eat and walk around a bit (“eat, a bit, mostly plants”). Interesting the difference between what we think could kill us (strangers, terrorists, planes, sharks, savage foxes) and what actually does.
Oh, btw, it’s from the Guardian.
Does Where You Think Change What You Think?
I’m doing a Pro-Bono (Edward Pro-Bono – get it?) workshop with the Association of Senior Children’s and Education Librarians up near Derby in the UK. Great bunch of people and an interesting discussion last night about children (under sixteen essentially) not really embracing tablets and e-books to quite the extent that some people, especially the media, would make us believe. Even at 17-18 the preference still seems to be for paper. I think this will change, but the discussion did highlight a number of practical issues relating to screens versus paper.
Anyway, the room the workshop is being held in is basement-like and not especially inspiring. That’s not quite fair. It’s fine and far better than some I’ve experienced. Contrast this with where I was 2 days ago – Vevey in Switzerland – where the view from almost every room was of the Swiss Alps and Lake Geneva. So my question for the day is this….do physical spaces – including views – change how you think and if so how and why?
Future Vision: Book launch in Sydney
Just in case you are in Sydney and would like to attend the launch of Future Vision it’s happening at UTS Business School. Details and link are below. I am in London I’m afraid and will not be attending. However, my co-author, Oliver Freeman, will be there and, I’m sure, say a few words.
Date: Wednesday 28th November
Time: 6pm-8pm
Venue: UTS Aerial Function Centre, 7/235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW
Cost: Free, but places are limited and RSVP essential
RSVP: Please register below by Friday 23th November
http://datasearch.uts.edu.au/business/news-events/event-detail.cfm?ItemId=33198
The death of handwriting?
I’ve just been running futures workshop in Germany and one discovery is that people are losing the ability to write by hand. I’m not talking about kids either – rather professional 40-somethings and 50-somethings. You think I’m joking? The material that was written was almost unreadable. This chimes with my own experience whereby writing more than 3 sheets of A4 by hand causes noticeable aches in my hand.
So do I add handwriting to the extinction timeline?