100 Radical Technologies

A nice companion to the table of disruptive technologies that I created with Imperial Tech Foresight a while back. Thanks to Chris at Nesta (was at Imperial) for alerting me to this.

PDF of 100 Radical Innovation Breakthroughs for the Future

And just in case you missed it….

The Future: Fiction vs. Fact

This is getting ridiculous. I keep making jokes (in print) that come true or at least get seriously discussed. How far-fetched do you now have to make things in order that they remain fiction or speculation? I had the idea of people digging up landfills to recycle pastics into fuel back in 2006 (it appeared in my book Future Files in 2007). See above. Last week I saw this…see below.

新兴科技时间轴(2014——2030+)

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这是和帝国理工大学技术预测同行们(尤其是阿莱克斯·阿亚德(Alex Ayad),但是在后期也要特别感谢克里斯·哈利(Chris Haley))共同创作的新型科学和技术时间轴。上面是图表完工时的图片。我们对于是否把“移动电话数量超过人口”列为“当下”讨论了很久,但是电话用户超过69亿人,已经很接近人口总数了。
请点击本段最后的链接,下载适合打印的高分辨率PDF版本(建议用彩色A3或更大纸张打印)。在一周左右时间内,将会有图表的纸质打印版。在本博文底部是一些展示该图表是如何创建的图片,以及图表是如何演进的。新兴科技-5

至于图表上有什么,有5个关键大技术:数字技术(主要是信息技术)、生物技术、纳米技术、神经技术和绿色技术(有时被称为清洁技术)。

我们把图表分成3个时间区域。第一个区域是“当下”,我们定义为现在或附近(2014-2015),同时至少1000个实际例子(事件可能是一次性出现的事,但是创新一般至少要有1000个实际例子才会纳入表中)。“很有可能”是第二个区域,被定义为2015-2030。第三个区域是“有可能”,被定义为从2030年往后可能出现的事。图表的绝大部分都是严肃的,但是我们没能抗拒在一些区域娱乐一下的冲动
希望你们都喜欢它,如果你觉得它有意思或者有用的话,请和他人分享。请注意本时间轴的出版是基于知识共享许可的,所以你可以在未询问情况下将其用于商业目的或者制作不同版本。但是如果使用时能链接回我们的初始版本,我们将感激不尽。
至于每条线上有什么,这里是清单:
绿色技术 当下
廉价太阳能聚集器
绝缘气凝胶建筑
振动能量采集
社区电网
能回应指令的家用电器
LED路灯
电网规模贮存
家庭电厂(冷热电联供系统)
智能仪表
藻类生质燃料
绿色技术 很有可能
超级电容车
消费者即时定价
100%淘汰白炽灯
氢的人工光合作用
合成飞机燃料
周围的射频能量采集
束能量用于生态监测和军事无人机
大规模的碳捕捉和碳贮存
摩天大楼上的透明(有机)太阳能电池
生物可降解电池
自主车辆专用车道
电动车辆路上感应充电
超市合成肉
绿色技术 有可能
行波反应堆
燃料电池驱动的轻型客机
无人机运送比萨
商业海洋热能转换
微型风能水能收集建筑外墙
汽车波转子发动机
钍反应堆
给海洋施以铁质肥料
用3D打印技术生产的适用于垂直农业的土壤
高速人行道
昆虫汉堡食物车
超回路大众运输系统
用托卡马克核聚变发电
卫星束太空太阳能
生物技术 当下
DNA时间确认机构
基因疗法
合成有机物
对于先天性疾病进行基因测试
入侵身体以增强感官
用3D打印技术生产的骨科植入物
商业宠物克隆
源于作物的朔料
基于基因的主动医学介入
为制药培育人源化的动物
生物技术 很有可能
预防性抗生素禁止用于动物
个性化的微生物疗法
无处不在的生物感应
非源于动物的皮革
非处方基因测试
对帕金森氏综合征进行干细胞治疗
用3D打印技术生产的生物纳米支架
人类器官克隆
为个人数据存储嵌入射频识别技术
发现最后的抗生素
生物技术 有可能
用纳米纤维制造人造肌肉
基于DNA的数据贮存
微生物感应的食品包装
引入转基因蚊子以消除疟疾
人类基因工程合法化
纹身电路(人体上的视频纹身)
克隆人类
合成有机物所带来流行病
数字技术 当下
移动电话数量超过人口 (情况转变则不属于这一类?)
生活记录
加密货币
连接到网络的牙刷
现实增强眼镜
预防犯罪算法
NFC指甲
可扫描条码的墓碑
能面部识别的中央摄像头
阿凡达女友
用于游戏的大脑-计算机基本界面
跨洲机器人手术
数字技术 很有可能
实时语言翻译
量子计算机用于解密
分析内衣
AI用于全科医生手术
无辅助机器人手术
物联网超过500亿个设备
能读唇语的中央摄像头
网络攻击导致整个城市范围内断电
不用电池的无线沟通
自主电子出租车车队
实体信用卡过时
触觉学衣服
情绪感知器
昆虫大小的侦查机器人
全息数据存储
AI用于无人机-无人机战斗
太阳耀斑消除GPS网络
数字技术 可能
侵入已经植入的神经设备
城市禁止人类驾驶员
预测战争的算法
商业飞机由智能手机劫持
战事与游戏合并
机器人数量超过人类
物联网超过1万亿个设备
终身阿凡达助手
记录人类从出生到死亡整个生命
家用冰箱感知保质期
完全自主的战场机器人
量子电脑用于材料设计
纳米技术 当下
用于衣物的抗病毒纳米粒子
化妆品和遮光剂中的纳米粒子
朔料打印的电子电路
量子点电视
癌症成像和治疗的纳米粒子
用于培育人体部位干细胞的支架
蛋白质结晶的模板
自我修复的漆点和表面
用于合成神经元和合成神经植入物的纳米管
消费者电子产品中的甲醇燃料电池
纳米技术 很有可能
人工电磁材料天线
可碾压的屏幕和设备
纳米技术 可能
实验室演示人工电磁材料隐身
旋光仪使计算接近光速
室温超导体
量子点夜视窗
自主数据密集
生态系统单层石墨超级电容自我复制
IBM用动画原子做成动画片
全朔料的晶体管
下一代超轻型合成材料
每比特数据有100个原子密集
神经技术 当下
耳蜗植入
大脑指纹用于法庭
益智药用于医学或休闲使用
由思维控制的假肢
活跃大脑区域的神经成像
神经技术 很有可能
思维控制的轮椅
手机对眼球移动追踪
解码意向的算法
适应性电子助手避免信息超负荷
人工视网膜植入
不会宿醉的酒精替代品
神经技术 可能
侵入植入的神经设备
大脑-电脑界面广泛补充了键盘使用
空中旅行者大脑指纹常规
通过fMRI对梦成像和记录
沟通设备广泛嵌入到人体
基本想法的人工神经编写
用大脑假体提升或消除记忆
终结痴呆

设计开发
设计大体上基于我之前2010年后趋势和技术时间轴做的 (需要PDF版本请点击这里)。第一个草图是在厨房桌子上用铅笔在A3白纸上画的,之后不断改进了好多版(记得大约是十二版)。圆圈最初是用厨房盘子和大碗画的,彩色的线最初是用荧光笔和我孩子们的马克笔混合创作的。专业设计之前的最终版本画在了A3绘图纸上,使各要点契合并连接好。设计的功劳也属于劳伦斯·怀特利(Lawrence Whitely),特别感谢帝国理工大学的科林(Kereen)。

关于未来的更新,我们已经在考虑动画版以及积极和消极版本(乌托邦版和非乌托邦版)。如果关于图表的未来更新版本,您觉得哪些事该/不该出现在图表上(或是看到一些愚蠢的错误,请务必告之我们)。

IMG_1729IMG_1629IMG_1732IMG_2242IMG_1618

‘Sixth Sense’ Wearable Computers

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If you’ve not seen it already check out a TED talk by Pattie Maes from MIT. The device is essentially a wearable projector and computer that allows people to interact with their external environment by projecting related information about things they are looking at onto the thing they’re looking at. For example, if you pick up a book in a store it could project reader comments or the book website onto the actual book. Equally it could display information about product provenance onto the product in a supermarket. It could even be used to project a watch onto your hand or turn your hand into a fully functioning calculator.

A clickable link appears in the comments below.

Future Inventions

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Invisibility cloaks
There appear to be two ways of doing this:
1. Optical camouflage — project your surroundings back onto yourself. For example, if a soldier is in a wood the trees could be projected onto every part of your clothing or equipment in the same way that a Gecko disguises itself.

2. Force light to travel around an object thereby making the object ‘disappear’. This is essentially reverse reflection and operates in a manner that is similar to the old straw in a glass of water trick where the straw appears to be bent.

Emotionally aware machines
Toyota is currently working on a technology that would allow a car to sense a driver’s emotional mood and then change itself to increase safety. Similarly, Microsoft is looking at ways of enabling your computer to work out what kind of mood you are in (relaxed, busy, angry etc) and then time the arrival of emails to suit your mood.In theory online retailers could also judge a persons mood and instantly personalise either their homepage or product offers.

Robotic soldiers
The biggest military contract in US history was recently awarded for the development of what was euphemistically called Future Combat Systems (robo soldiers to you and me). However, anyone expecting Robocop with an Uzi will be sadly disappointed, at least in the short term. Currently these robots look like rather lethal Tonka toys although the intelligence of these things should grow. On a related note the US military is also developing a range of SWORDS (Special Weapons Observation Reconnaissance Detection System), which is likely to cover spy planes the size of house flies (Fly Planes?), robo goats and robo lobsters.

Vertical city farms
By 2050 80% of the world’s population (around 9 billion people) will live in cities.Given the need for land and the pressure to reduce transportation (due to climate change but also because of congestion) high-rise farms will start to be built in the middle of cities. This will satisfy the need for fresh local produce but should also reduce carbon emissions and reduce run-off. Cities are generally warmer than the surrounding countryside some energy requitement for heating may be reduced in some areas too.

Space elevators
A space elevator is a structure whereby objects can be sent to and from space using a tethered cable or similar. The idea is a bit Jack-in-the beanstalk but is technically possible if you could make s structure strong enough. In space there would need to be a counter weight, which is somewhat problematical, not least because the strength of the earth’s gravity would tend to pull the counterweight back to earth. Perhaps a better idea would be to use space elevator on a planet such as Mars that has a weaker gravitational field.

Fully sensory internet
In the US you can buy a gaming vest filled with compressed air that simulates the sensation of being shot. In Japan and the US you can buy aroma pods that download smells from the internet and haptic technology already simulates the feel of things that don’t actually exist. Combine all of these elements with a few hallucinatory drugs and you’d have a virtual reality that was very close to the real thing.

Childcare robots
In Japan you can buy a 38cm robot that can do the babysitting. It sends pictures to the parent’s mobile phone of the child sleeping and uses face recognition technology to know whether someone is friend or foe. The bot, known as PaPeRo (Partner type Personal Robot) can be sent instructions to play with the child, again by mobile phone. The bot is currently being trailed in a day care centre in Tokyo.

Robotic surgery
This is the use of robots to perform surgery on humans or animals or remote surgery using a combination of human surgeon and robotic assistant. In 1988 Imperial College London used a bot to perform prostrate surgery and the first remote surgery (between a human surgeon in New York and a pig patient in France) took place in 2001.The world’s first fully unmanned surgery took place in Italy in 2006.

Microscopic robotic surgeons
In 1966 the film Fantastic voyage features a miniaturized submarine that was injected into the blood stream of a patent. In the future nanotechnology may create a miniature robot than can enter the body via the bloodstream to treat or repair body damage.

Intelligent dating device – IDD
A device that is worn by a person to a) tell you whether someone in the immediate vicinity is available for dating and b) whether that someone will be attracted to you.

3D printers
A home based machine that can print any 3D object by layering successive layers of material upon each other. For example, after downloading the right software/blue prints the machine could ‘print’ a new element for a kitchen kettle or a new SIM card for a mobile phone. The ultimate aim of this technology would probably be to create a machine that can create itself.

Oceanic thermal converter
A method for generating electricity using the temperature differences that exist between deep and shallow water in our oceans. Technically a heat exchange engine that would be many times more efficient that wave power.

Fish ranching
Giant cages that float around the world’s oceans growing fish. The cages would float on the ocean currents but would contain GPS so people know where they are together with a propulsion system so that when the fish are ready to eat the cage can be driven to the nearest port.

Synthetic reality /programmable matter
Self-assembling machines using man made atoms. The individual elements can be programmed to change shape or colour and can instantly morph into any 3D object including replica of human beings. Currently dubbed claytronics (a reference to claymation) the idea is being worked on at Carnegie Mellon University in the US.

In some ways this technology could achieve a form of teleportation because full size replica of oneself could be ‘sent’ over the Internet much in the same way that words and pictures currently are. A camera would capture an image of the person and then this would be sent to a lump of ‘clay’ somewhere, which then morphs into ‘you’.

Injections to treat addictions
This exists already in pill form (Vivitrol) and the FDA has given approval to an injectable version of the drug (Naltrexone) back in 2006.

Not Invented Here

Got a great letter from Hallmark Consumer Care the other day in response to an idea I sent them a while back. I quote.

“Thank you for contacting Hallmark.

Although we are honored that you would think of Hallmark, we do not accept submissions of creative suggestions, ideas, notes, drawings or concepts or other information (Collectively, the “information”.) If you send us the information despite our request that you do not do so, the information shall be deemed, and shall remain, the property of Hallmark.”

Well so much for open innovation and customer co-creation then:

Future Inventions

Invention Probability by 2050*

Invisibility cloaks 85%
Emotionally aware machines 100%
Robotic soldiers 100%
Vertical city farms 90%
Fully sensory internet 100%
Childcare robots 90%
Robotic surgery 100%
3D printers 100%
Oceanic thermal converter 60%
Programmable matter 80%
Injections to treat addictions 100%
150 GB memory sticks 90%
Mobile phone implants 50%
Wireless speakers 95%
Everlasting chewing gum 5%
Everlasting gob stoppers 10%
Downloadable dreams 2%
GPS shoes 99%
Artificial eyes 99%
Body part farms 50%
Non-melting ice 10%
Transatlantic tunnel 5%
Implantable sense of humour 0%
Video wallpaper 70%
Virtual reality windows 60%
Fully sensory Internet 100%
Sleep hotels 100%
Just in time food shopping 100%
Powered exoskeletons 100%
Silent villages 60%
Quiet paint 80%
Spray on surgical gloves 20%
Disposable cardboard phones 70%
Wireless recharging 100%
Keyless home entry 100%
Digital wallets 100%
Self-repairing paint 100%
Real time road pricing 100%
Self-parking cars 90%
Single global currency 60%
Shy shields 10%
Flying Cars 1%
Oceanic mirrors 2%
Plastic bones 85%
Plastic bridges 75%
Face transplants 90%
Memory pills 25%
Artificial hearts 80%
Aerosol dirt 10%
Face recognition doors 100%
Plastic teeth 80%
Plastic planes 40%
Space Tourism 100%
Moon colony 70%
Space elevators 10%
Lists of inventions for 2100 100%

* Mainstream availability

 

UPDATE: THIS WAS WRITTEN IN 2008 SO MANY ARE INDEED NOW TRUE!