Monthly Archives: July 2012

Future forecasting

Apparently people trust weather forecasts more than they trust economic forecasts according to something I read this morning. Politicians and journalists rate even worse than economists, although they are more trusted than fortunetellers and astrologists. No mention was made of … Continue reading

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Why do we keep doing (and falling for) this?

Here’s something from the UK press from back in April… “There are plans for water sharing across neighbouring utilities and warnings of standpipes if the dry weather continues. The cracked ground of a parched riverbed, queues of sunburnt women waiting … Continue reading

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          Good article in the Guardian two days ago about the looting of Barclays bank by those at the very top. Two statistics that really caught my attention were that Barclay’s top 238 staff took home … Continue reading

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Here are a few numbers you might not expect. In 1988, 62% of UK teens admitted to drinking alcohol and 18% said that they drank at least once a week. By 2010 these figures had fallen (yes, fallen) to 45% … Continue reading

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Computers that predict the future

                      Can you predict the future? Most people would say absolutely not, certainly not in the sense of making highly accurate forecasts about what or when something will happen. But … Continue reading

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The Future of War

Worth watching (via Andrew Crosthwaite). Click here (6 minutes). BTW, here’s something on the future of war forecasting from What’s Next back in 2005. In the future there will be pollution forecasts, disease forecasts and war forecasts. In fact war-forecasting … Continue reading

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Flight to safe

            According to a set of scenarios developed by Oxford Economics, a Greek exist from the Euro is a 15-20% probability with a multiple exist around 30% probable. The same reports puts a Chinese hard … Continue reading

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                        Anthony Wiener, who looked into the future in 1967, has died aged 81. He will be largely remembered for his book The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation … Continue reading

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US entrepreneurship

I owe you folks something to read that’s a little longer, but this stat caught my eye yesterday. Individuals born in the USA are half as likely to start a new business as immigrants (Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation). BTW, What’s … Continue reading

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Demographics in South Korea

In 1960 the fertility rate in South Korea was around 6.0 it is now 1.15. If it drops to 1.0, each generation will be 50% the size of the one that preceded it.

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