Category Archives: War

The Future of War

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Here’s what happens when you ask an AI about the future of war with a focus on AI and quantum. Not bad. I had to remove some nonsense and add a few things that I felt were missing. It’s not contextualised within geopolitics and resouces either. I’m suprised it picked up on quantum (GPS free) navigation (who knows about that?). Subscription warfare? Interesting. I think that already exists inside the dark web. The probability/impact matrix is 100% human. Takeaways? We are perhaps becoming too reliant on complex systems that require electrical power and wireless connectivity and which allow for simple no-tech counter-measures. There also seems to be a further convergence between gaming and warfare and possibly a collapse of the binary distinction between RL and VR.
#AI #futureofwar

Just a thought…

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You all know I love a map, so here’s one showing the Russian troop build up. So why hasn’t Putin invaded yet? A) It’s about the weaponization of diplomacy – gaining levergage. B). He’s about to suprise a few people and invade Belarus instead (and then onto Ukraine perhaps). C). He’s waiting on the Chinese to ready a plan to attack Taiwan at the same time. Just thinking aloud….

Using past and present to predict the future

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I’ve long watched what people are watching on TV (nostalgia + dystopia), and at movies (safe sequels) to ponder emerging trends. I also keep an eye on what type of books are on the best-seller lists (cooking, monsters, travel, rebalancing) and even what slogans people have on their t-shirts (100% human), which can be especially useful to spot emerging weak signals.

However, over in Germany this idea has been made more rigorous. (Thanks to Aifric for spotting this btw).


Using novels to predict the future.

Enough already

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Seems the BBC is now acting like a tabloid newspaper. How about a bit of proper context and analysis. Enough of this scaremongering. Yes it’s a concern that the US and Russia are led by ultra-nationalists and there are far too many actors on the world stage. And yes there are too many things happening at once.A major miscalulation is possible. But Putin isn’t stupid. All he wants is his old sphere of influence back. Maybe a buffer against the US and NATO too.

This is a bit of a jump, but expect to see ultra-nostalgia kick off anytime soon. Comfort foods, comfort films, comfort TV, comfort decor. It’s back to the future folks. As I said in one of my books, in the future the past is always present. Never truer than right now.

Full image here.

Emerging socks & technology

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Screen shot 2014-06-23 at 07.23.35

Saw these in a secret underground bunker. OK to say what they, but not where they’re from. Blast proof socks – presumably part of an emerging line of blast-proof underwear. Thing is that when soldiers step on mines and IEDs they can get there feet blown off. These socks are made from kevlar (plus a few other things) and stop the foot being blown off or, at least, keep all the bits in one place. They could do with a wash though.

Formulae for future conflict

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Some time ago I wrote about a formula that might predict future revolutions (essentially the number of men aged 16-24 in a population x the level of education x internet access x level of corruption/ bureaucracy/censorship x food prices x unemployment).

Anyway, a new formula has come my way via the magazine Nature, which is said to predict similar forms of conflict. The basic idea is that a hidden order underlies any conflict with the exception of conflicts that involve two sides of similar strength. The study, by Neil Johnson and colleagues at the University of Miami, says that time interval between attacks remains relatively constant, which allows for intervention.