Had a coffee with fellow futurist Ross Dawson this morning. Decided it was time to create another timeline so we’ve settled on a media innovations timeline from 1600AD to 2030. Interesting thing was that a few thousand years took just 30 minutes but we became a bit stuck with future developments. Weird. Does this mean that it’s a case of the same but different in the future? Answer: No, we just need more coffee.

Things that did make me laugh were Advertising supported education, foetal sponsorship, emotionally responsive programming and speed-reading glasses.

The timeline will be out in a week or two (I think) and will be available for free download at nowandnext.com and futureexploration.net. BTW, there is obviously something on the air. I’ve just been asked to contribute to another future innovations timeline for Wired magazine.

Things are looking crunchy. How bad things are nobody really knows yet, but it does look as though several parts of the world are either in, or are entering, recession (a recession is when someone you know loses their job. A depression is when you lose your own job). Given that we don’t know what’s happening it’s premature to speculate about specific consequences. Nevertheless, one can perhaps make a few general statements about what’s likely to happen as a result of recent economic events. So here’s a list of predictions:

1. Lower oil prices
Lower economic growth means less demand, which means less appetite for energy and specifically oil. The fact that people were worrying about oil at $140+ a barrel just a few months ago is a perfect demonstration of the cyclical nature of both markets and risk.

2. More home cooked meals
People have less disposable income and are feeling anxious about what lies ahead so expect to see more cooking from scratch (to save money) and more home cooked comfort food (to feel better on the inside even when things on the outside are looking gloomy). At the extreme people will also start growing their own food — at least until they realise that this isn’t quite as easy as it looks. Nevertheless, gardening as an antidote to stress should make a comeback.

3. More affordable housing (for a while)
One of the major reasons for the current financial mess is that individuals and institutions alike thought that boom and bust had ended. House prices went up but no longer went down. This was great news for real estate investors but if you simply needed somewhere cheap to live it wasn’t.
So say hello to more affordable housing (assuming you can find anyone still willing to lend you money to buy one). However, this might not last long because people are already viewing houses as ‘safe’ places to put their savings.

4. More thrift
Expect people to brand switch from what are perceived to be relatively expensive supermarkets (e.g. Waitrose and Tesco) to cheaper discount alternatives such as Aldi and Lidl. Also expect retailers to place more emphasis on value for money. We will also see more trading on e-Bay,
more second-hand clothing swaps, more charity shops and more make do and mend.

5. More time with family
In boom times time becomes relatively expensive. Thus people spend less time with their family and friends and outsource all sorts of things from childcare to cleaning. In a recession such behaviour tends to reverse so expect to see people spending less time at work and more time with their immediate family.

6. More street crime
The recession will not be universal and some wealthy areas will be almost immune to the ravages of the economic chill. One consequence of people having less money (or none) will be an increase in crime, especially opportunistic street crime.

7. Less obesity
Lower oil prices may result in people driving more but a more likely result is people walking and cycling more. Add to this a trend towards healthier eating (because fresh food is cheaper and people have more time to cook from scratch) and one result could be leaner, healthier nations. Actually this is probably rubbish.

8. More time in education
If there are less jobs or the job market becomes more uncertain then it would not be unreasonable to assume that people will spend longer in the relatively stable and risk free world of education.

9. Interest in serious news & media
In times of serious economic upheaval and anxiety individuals have two options. The first option is to bury your head in fantasy and escape (everything from escapist movies to virtual worlds). The second route to find out what’s going on. Expect to see a revival in the fortunes of serious newspapers and magazines like the Financial Times and The Economist.

10. More big-bank consolidation
Market consolidation has been going on for at least a quarter of a century but recent events will speed up this consolidation, especially in sectors that have been most exposed to debt. Expect to see more big global banks but also expect to see more interest in local non-bank lenders such as building societies and savings and loan companies.

What a week. It’s always dangerous to make short-term predictions but occasionally you need to stick your neck out. People are worried about their jobs. People are worried about their homes and people are worried about their savings. The toxic nature of some recent interbank lending means people are also genuinely frightened about what’s going to happen next.

To this point I offer two thoughts. First, even if the financial system does collapse it’s not the end of the world. It’s only money. On almost any other measure you can mention we are better off now than we have been for a very long time. There is no immediate threat to our physical health or our physical security*. It’s not a global flu pandemic and it’s not the start of WW3 either. Moreover, even if 2008 does turn into 1929 (it won’t) the material circumstances and prospects of most people are still vastly different.

Second, even though many parts of the world seem certain to fall into a recession there is still a lot of money around. China is awash with cash and whilst the US is certainly an important export market for China, Asia is far more important. So is internal Chinese consumption. What this means is that a US inspired financial crisis is still not necessarily a global economic one over the longer-term.

It seems to me that the most likely scenario is one where the US and Europe are de-coupled from the rest of the world economically in a manner that is analogous to Japan’s ‘lost decade’ in the 1990s. Global growth will slow down but it won’t end. Furthermore, whilst some sectors will be hit hard (financial services and retail being obvious examples) other sectors such as manufacturing or technology may still shine relatively speaking.

A final point is prices. People complain about the cost of food and petrol but what they miss is that these prices are relative. Other things, such as the cost of manufactured goods, have dropped sharply in recent years. I could be wrong about all this, of course, but I figure that if 1929 does return then we will have bigger things to worry about than my latest blog post.

* Can you imagine the consequences of another US 9/11-style attack in the middle of the current financial crisis? This is one scenario that I’d rather
not think about.