Apart from the odd expert (and let’s face it, experts can be very odd), most intelligent people would accept that something is happening to the world’s weather. The only question is what. Some people say it’s going to get colder and wetter while others say it’s going to get hotter and drier. Let’s just say things are changing. After all, what is ‘normal’ weather depends entirely on how far back you want to go. Oh, and by the way, how arrogant of the human species to think that we have a right to exist forever. Maybe our time is simply coming to an end? BTW, I know this totally contradicts what I’ve said about Malthusians, who argue that the earth is overpopulated and the only solution is a radical reduction of the human population. My view on that argument was that it was speciesism. But I’m full of contradictions.
Here’s a funny thing. Thanks to technology and globalisation life is speeding up. But some things are actually slowing down. Traffic speeds in London are now slower than they were fifty years ago. The new VW Golf GTi is slower than the mark 1 GTi and the new ‘super jumbo’ jet is slower than the original. Back on the roads we have governments trying to slow us down whilst we are buying faster cars. Hence the boom in private ‘track days’ for owners of high performance vehicles (because where else can you drive them at full speed?). Ideas for slowing cars down on the other hand include roads with no road markings (apparently they reduce speed and accidents) and sentencing qualified drivers to L-Plates. Is this the end of driving for pleasure? It certainly looks like the beginning of the end.
It would seem logical that as roads (and parking spaces) fill up there would be a growth in public and mass transport. However, the car is so linked to ideas of individualism, freedom, private space and personal identity that we are unlikely to give up private car ownership in the short term. For example, in the UK 70% of people still drive to work. In theory high oil prices should put people off, but that’s what people said twenty years ago. From a sustainability point of view, the future must see the re-invention of public transport on a mass scale, but people will not embrace the idea until governments start thinking long term and build networks that are safe, clean, convenient and affordable. And a good start might be for politicians and business leaders to actually start using public transport themselves.
The more life speeds up, the more people will want to step off for a while. Hence the growth in spa experiences, personal indulgences and stress relief holidays. This trend is even influencing domestic architecture and interior design with bathrooms turning into spa heavens and whole houses turning into tiny resorts of sorts. Probably links with cocooning.
Traditionally, politics was a battle between governments and Unions. More recently it was a battle between companies and Unions brokered by governments. But these days there’s a third force — Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). Membership organisations and special interest groups are hugely powerful and will probably replace ‘Second Chambers’ in some parliamentary democracies.
One of the key drivers of global change is the convergence of technologies. This is, in turn, driving the convergence of products and ultimately services. Meanwhile, over in business (and especially retail), we are experiencing a blurring of industries and sectors. Hence we’ve got bookshops selling coffee, coffee shops selling music, supermarkets selling loans, Ralph Lauren selling white paint and water companies selling gas. Just how far can you stretch a brand these days before it snaps?
The more globalisation takes hold the more powerful small local players become. Equally, the stronger the forces of globalisation, the more important provenance and personalisation become. There is even a school of thought that says globalisation is coming to an end although it’s rather unclear what will replace it.
According to the New Economics Forum (a UK think tank), owners of 4×4 (SUV) vehicles should be forced to display health warnings on the side of their cars similar to the health warnings seen on cigarette packs. We’ve already seen tax rates, licence charges and even interest rates on car loans linked to vehicle type so expect to see anti-car sentiment linked to specific government policies in the future. For example, large 4×4 vehicles could be banned from certain areas at certain times of day or local councils could offer free inner city parking for owners of hybrid, electric or small commuter cars.
In 2002, 42,815 people died on America’s roads and while cars have been getting safer for years there is still a way to go. Future innovations will probably include the widespread adoption of technologies like lane warning and guidance devices, blind spot alarms, radar-assisted cruise control, remote speed control, speed caps, sleep alarms and even night vision devices. However, one could argue that all of these ideas insulate the driver from reality and what’s really needed is less technology and comfort not more. As someone once said, the safest car in the world would simply have a sharp blade sticking out of the steering wheel.