Apart from the odd expert (and let’s face it, experts can be very odd), most intelligent people would accept that something is happening to the world’s weather. The only question is what. Some people say it’s going to get colder and wetter while others say it’s going to get hotter and drier. Let’s just say things are changing. After all, what is ‘normal’ weather depends entirely on how far back you want to go. Oh, and by the way, how arrogant of the human species to think that we have a right to exist forever. Maybe our time is simply coming to an end? BTW, I know this totally contradicts what I’ve said about Malthusians, who argue that the earth is overpopulated and the only solution is a radical reduction of the human population. My view on that argument was that it was speciesism. But I’m full of contradictions.

Traditionally, politics was a battle between governments and Unions. More recently it was a battle between companies and Unions brokered by governments. But these days there’s a third force — Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs). Membership organisations and special interest groups are hugely powerful and will probably replace ‘Second Chambers’ in some parliamentary democracies.

By 2010 the global population should have increased to 6.8 billion (it reached 6 billion in 1999 and currently stands at 6.49 billion), but 95% of global population growth between now and 2010 will come from developing countries, most of them in the East. India will become an economic superpower, especially in services, but most attention will continue to be focused on the potential of its manufacturing based rival China. China is important for a number of reasons including its sheer size (geographically and population wise), its economic growth and its territorial claims. These in turn make China a significant foreign policy player. Thus there will be (is) a significant powershift eastwards. Nevertheless, we shouldn’t forget that China is a totalitarian state with, some would argue, the seeds of its own destruction already sown. Urban-rural conflict, rampant corruption and environmental calamities are all there under the surface.

You can bank online, bet on line, date on line and watch TV on line — so why can’t we all vote on line? And come to think of it, if I can vote for American Pop Idol, why can’t I vote for the US President? (after all he/she arguably affects me more than my own Prime Minister).

Historically, politics has been dominated by big ideas. However, that was then and this is now. The last big idea in politics was probably free market economics (Thatcherism and Reganism in the 1980s) but it’s been pretty barren ever since. So it’s nice to hear about an idea from a group of British politicians who think that what’s needed is a plethora of small ideas. The manifesto of small ideas includes: — Compulsory training for teenage fathers — Tax credits for successful marriages — 30 minute traffic-free periods in cities — Any building over 10,000 square meters must include a library — Chief Constables must walk the beat for 4 hours a month. Not quite what some people were thinking of, but at least it’s a start.

Are we all moving rightwards? A Harvard University poll found that 75% of students supported the armed forces compared with just 20% in 1975. Why the change of heart? First, September 11. Second, the Republican party has spent a lot of time and money recruiting the young and third, young people just love to do the opposite of what their (liberal) parents did. The result is that all sorts of things that would have been considered unthinkable twenty years ago are now perfectly acceptable. For example, 36% of US high-school students now believe that the US government should approve news stories prior to publication or broadcast.

Will national governments survive the current century? There is already evidence emerging that power is shifting towards the local at the one end and the global at the other. We are also witnessing the decline of law and even security at the national level.

Do you really care who wins the next election? — aren’t they all the same anyway? Perhaps this is why, in the UK, more people belong to the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) than all three major political parties combined. Take another example. More young people voted on American Pop Idol than in the last US Federal election. But politicians in Lithuania have developed a novel solution – give away drinks at polling stations. At a recent election voting increased from 23% to 65% as a result.

Historically, international relations have been based on relationships between nation states but this is changing. Many of the current conflicts are between groups inside states. Moreover, the very idea of the nation state is itself under threat from both above and below. Local issues are seen by many people as more important than national politics because at least they have a chance of influencing outcomes. This may lead to the re-birth of city states as national politics is squeezed between powerful multi-national corporate and NGO interests on the one hand and locally politicised individuals on the other.