Here’s a nice information graphic on households and household types in the US in 2020. Link to page here.

BTW, tonight is the dinner looking ahead to the year 2045, so I’ll report back on that shortly.

Last week I was with RAND in Cambridge discussing the nature of the state in 2045. This week it was the DCDC Strategic Trends folks down in Wiltshire talking more broadly about what might reasonably happen by 2045. The discussion was largely focused on five key areas; demographics, globalisation, the changing nature and distribution of power, technology and governance, although we also debated climate change, urbanisation, inequality, the economy, energy, migration, identity and religion at some length.

If you’ve been following my posts about the 2045 project (see link below) the latest news is that GST 5 will be published in April 2014. Between now and then I will post some of my own thoughts about what the enduring and emerging themes might be out to 2045.

Image above is from 1939 (via Paleo Future). BTW, is it just me or does this image remind anyone of War of the Worlds, which was written 41 years earlier (1898)?

Here’s a serendipitous update. I’ve been spending the last couple of days thinking about 2025 and 2030 so what arrives in my inbox this morning but an update on the Global Strategic Trends Programme looking at the world in 2045. To answer a previous comment about when this work (the 2045 report) will be available the answer is April 2014. As for themes I’ll drip various things in over the coming months but some of the top themes currently are as follows:

Role of the state
Globalisation
Inequality
Technology advances
Human identity
Ideology
Lifestyle
Resources & climate

So in the spirit of open innovation and the wisdom of crowds, what’s missing from this list in terms of meta themes or drivers of change?

So what will the world’s main language be in 2045? Most people would say it would still be English, although some argue that the use of English as a global language is peaking. Other contenders would probably include Mandarin with Spanish, Portuguese (Brazil remember!) and Hindi in the top 5 rankings.

Why is this important? Because language shapes ideas and institutions and a world where Mandarin Chinese is the major language would probably be somewhat different to one where it’s English.

Just putting this up for Bron (the first guest post!?!). BTW, one thing that was mentioned that I forgot about was a possible return to a gold standard.

Tried to leave this comment to your post, the world in 2045, but it didn’t like all the links, thinking it was spam:

Reference “global corporations not paying a fair level of tax” I think you need something on governments pushing for the elimination of cash so that all transactions become visible and thus taxable, also fits in with authoritanism shift. With budgets under pressure, easier to Government to argue it is needed to make sure people “pay their fair share”. Maybe get rid of complex tax law (more white collar jobs gone) and move to a low flat tax on every electronic cash flow.

Also consider virtual currencies used within virtual worlds & online games as well as facebook. Mobile payments as well. Some links on the move to cashless society:

Mint chip challenge (Royal Canadian Mint behind this)

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/20/1089571/more-on-m-pesa-and-e-money/

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com/columns/casey-research/928/doug-casey-on-cashless-societies-0928.html

http://www.goldmoneyasia.com/

Consider also the potential for a resulting backlash against invasion of privacy this entails, driving use of systems like Bitcoin or a push for competing currencies

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/05/31/the-case-for-monetary-freedom/ This may be driven by a 1970s style high (but tolerable) inflation as the only politically acceptable solution to the excess of debt that has been accumulated, resulting in people questioning their “faith” in the ability of fiat currencies to hold their value (see here for a good case for inflation).
http://www.slideshare.net/SymposiumEvents/david-evans

Alternatively, a few disruptions to existing payments systems (eg credit card or ATM systems not working) or interruptions in the internet may drive a renewed appreciation of physical cash.
Regards,
Bron Suchecki
MANAGER, ANALYSIS AND STRATEGY
THE PERTH MINT

Some more random headlines and scribbles taken during the recent discussion about the world in 2045. Please note that these are discussion points not predictions!

Emergence of new middles class and subsequent consolidation
Issue of income inequality
Demographic shifts (primarily ageing but also impact of more women in workforce)
Costs association with ageing – who pays?
Loss of cultural identity due to globalisation (or the opposite?)
Population growth
Greater access of information (by individuals globally)
Impact of social media on political process/debate
Return of ethics
New Prudery
Decline of trust
Shifts in resource availability/prices
Game changers around energy/fuel?
Will carbon capture work?
Geoengineering – solution or a daydream?
Toleration of violence versus avoidance of violence/war
Globalisation/deglobalisation dynamic
Emergence of multiple identities
Identity and belief – shifts?
Heading towards a Middle Ages construct?
Where does value base come from?
How do you define national interest?
Which of the issues are broadly cyclical?
Understanding of climate change will improve – better forecasting
Physical geography of the world is changing (due to climate change)
Urbanisation
Big data

To be continued…

(Image not from workshop, but added because it does provide the general context of population size and GDP. And yes, I too wonder where Latin America and Africa are on this map!).

Here are some random notes that I made in the 2045 workshop last week. I should explain that these are general ideas, issues and drivers of change that could in theory create the world in 2045. How they might combine, which is strongest and which is weakest has not been resolved. You’ll note that many of these are somewhat pessimistic. This could be a simple case of extrapolating current conditions (in the US/US/Europe especially) or it could be what happens when rapidly rising population meets finite natural resources. Buckle up folks; it could be a bumpy ride…

Most powerful state in the EU in 2045 is the Vatican
Issue of global corporations not paying a fair level of tax
Decreasing efficacy of antibiotics (antibiotic resistance)
Concentrations of power becoming more monopolistic /oligopolistic (is that a word?)
Reliance of technology as a weakness
3 billion potentially unemployed in 2045 due to technology
Impacts of transhumanism
Disenfranchised middle class (in the BRICs or somewhere else?)
States become much poorer (see corporations not paying taxes + unemployment)
Networks and data strengthen authoritarian states
State just another provider
New actors and disruptors (idea of preventative power)
Disorder a temporary state (at last, something optimistic!)
Words owned by corporations (a reference to Olympic sponsors I’d argue)
Collapse of universal moral norms and values
A G-Zero (as opposed to G7 or G2)
Weakness of global governance/institutions
The end of leadership
Unmet expectations
Loss of control
Regression to authoritarian rule
Politics & finance globally connected (how’s this fit with corps not paying taxes?)
People that believe anything
Global elite not loyal to nations (off-shore aristocracy)
Emergence of a new moral framework (potentially very good news indeed)
Better understandings of cause and effect
Where does power reside in 2045?

BTW, the reason this is being posted is to encourage comment, so comment away…

Just back from two days thinking about the world in 2045 with the Ministry of Defence. Some really bright people and some really good thinking, although there was more than enough to keep me wide awake for the next few nights.

I’ll dribble in some highlights and sound-bites over the next few days (unclassified), but one thing that sticks in my mind is the comment from Phillip Blond , a director at the think tank Respublica who was talking about the impacts of automation.

“What happened to the working class during the 1970s and 1980s (in the UK) is going to happen to the middle class next (between now and 2045).” If it’s not obvious what this comment means, it’s about whole industries and regions and mass unemployment.