World in 2045








Here are some random notes that I made in the 2045 workshop last week. I should explain that these are general ideas, issues and drivers of change that could in theory create the world in 2045. How they might combine, which is strongest and which is weakest has not been resolved. You’ll note that many of these are somewhat pessimistic. This could be a simple case of extrapolating current conditions (in the US/US/Europe especially) or it could be what happens when rapidly rising population meets finite natural resources. Buckle up folks; it could be a bumpy ride…

Most powerful state in the EU in 2045 is the Vatican
Issue of global corporations not paying a fair level of tax
Decreasing efficacy of antibiotics (antibiotic resistance)
Concentrations of power becoming more monopolistic /oligopolistic (is that a word?)
Reliance of technology as a weakness
3 billion potentially unemployed in 2045 due to technology
Impacts of transhumanism
Disenfranchised middle class (in the BRICs or somewhere else?)
States become much poorer (see corporations not paying taxes + unemployment)
Networks and data strengthen authoritarian states
State just another provider
New actors and disruptors (idea of preventative power)
Disorder a temporary state (at last, something optimistic!)
Words owned by corporations (a reference to Olympic sponsors I’d argue)
Collapse of universal moral norms and values
A G-Zero (as opposed to G7 or G2)
Weakness of global governance/institutions
The end of leadership
Unmet expectations
Loss of control
Regression to authoritarian rule
Politics & finance globally connected (how’s this fit with corps not paying taxes?)
People that believe anything
Global elite not loyal to nations (off-shore aristocracy)
Emergence of a new moral framework (potentially very good news indeed)
Better understandings of cause and effect
Where does power reside in 2045?

BTW, the reason this is being posted is to encourage comment, so comment away…

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4 Responses to World in 2045

  1. Richard says:

    Funny, that came up!

  2. James says:

    Why will the Vatican be the most powerful state in the EU since its the smallest and is the EU likely to exist?


  3. Richard says:

    Number of followers! (total number of Catholics across EU). BTW, just to be clear, it was more an idea for debate than a prediction.

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