Back to global risks….
Leader in the Telegraph today, which ends as follows:
“This apparent glut in supply, however, means that capacity globally is quite small. It would therefore require only a relatively minor disruption to supply for the situation to reverse and prices to rocket. Rarely have both the geopolitics and economics of oil looked so fragile.”
It’s been pointed out to me (I totally missed it – thanks Paddy) that my not very serious prediction that Kim Kardashian might run for US President has been overshadowed by the real-life possibility that her husband, Kanye West, might run in 2020. Reminds me of the line that fact is becoming more unbelievable than fiction. As for Donald Trump don’t even go there, although if you really want to you should read the New York Times piece on Donald Vs. The Pope.
What am I up to? Doing some slides for PWC about thinking (we’ll see how that does down!) and avoiding getting the next issue of What’s Next done. Also, vaguely thinking about what my next and possibly very final map might be. Either a map of human wants and needs (think Maslow but in far more detail) or a kind of ‘greatest hits’ vaguely based upon my 2010+ map. Something with a narrative and something that makes people think. After this I’m taking up oil painting.
New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com
So here, once again, is the finished version of my new map of global risks (plus a few charming ways the world could end). The radar is obviously divided into four by impact and probability. Impact is a guess at economic impact, while probability is a guess at likelihood. I know some people will argue about where specific events are located, but that’s the whole point – to created argument and debate about potential risks. The most serious events are be located top right, the least serious bottom left, although personally I’ve always had an interest in low probability high impact events (the so-called wildcards in scenario planning speak). These can be found bottom left. On the whole the map is serious, but there are a few events that aren’t – purely to keep people amused and awake.
In terms of process, a list of risks was generated using desk research. Sources include the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report, The Towers Watson Extreme Risks report, the EY Risk Report and various other publications along with material developed in various workshops at London Business School.
What do I worry about?
Apart from the next map, my biggest worry for a high impact event is another global financial meltdown (far worse than last time due to increased debt levels, a lack of liquidity and the newly networked nature of fear). This could be triggered by rising US interest rates, although the actual trigger is irrelevant. There is so much stress built up in the system I believe almost anything could trigger a panic sell off. I suspect that QE won’t work again either, although one might argue that QE is itself a risk and should be on the map.
I’m also concerned by a couple of other things on the map, but I’m not going to draw further attention to these. Water is an issue globally, although I’m writing this in the middle of an English rainstorm. Income polarisation worries me too.
Is there anything I’d like to happen? A message from space would be wonderful, although perhaps not a hostile one. A globalisation backlash could have benefits, although I suspect that the associated nationalism and tribalism wouldn’t be pleasant. Any favourites? Got to be human stupidity and Kim Kardashian!
Recommended listening while looking at the radar is, of course, Golden Earring’s Radar Love (1973 version here).
So to sum up, as it says on the map, most things here won’t happen so drinks lots of water, apply sunscreen and try to be a good human for future generations. Thank you.
New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com
Here’s my map of global game changers & regional risks. I was going to wait until September to publish this, but it’s been done early so what the heck. I’ll post a longer explanatory note about process and contents tomorrow.
If you want to download a high resolution version click here.
If you would like a print version for your wall (white out text for easier reading on paper) just get in touch and I’ll send you a different file. I suggest you print full colour at and least A3 size. A4 is too small.
I can also send out A3, A2 and A1 colour prints for a modest fee (enough to cover print, cardboard tube and post), but note that beyond A3 size the print cost isn’t cheap.
BTW, this was my original risk list. It’s changed a little and please note that about 5% of the list isn’t serious (most entries about global risks and the end of the world are a bit heavy so I needed a little light relief).
My initial (rough) list of risks…
State sponsored cyber-crime
Loss of bio-diversity
Income-wealth polarisation
Further Russian expansion
Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure
Exchange rate volatility
Chronic labour shortages
Mass unemployment caused by automation
Increase in economic protectionism
EU incrementalism
EU collapse
Inept institutions focussed on their own survival
Oil/Gas price shock
Severe water shortages
Commodity price volatility
Evaporation of liquidity
Global financial system collapse
Rapid rise in US interest rates
Severe deflation
Inflation at >10%
Global pandemic
Regulatory change
‘Weaponization’ of finance
Biological terrorism
Nuclear terrorism
Loss of antibiotic resistance
Destabilisation of China
Un-controlled mass-migration
Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen
Unforeseen events
Unforeseen combinations of events
Widespread collapse of trust
Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)
Geo-engineering accident
Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems
Total war
Ocean acidification
Globalisation backlash
Mental health epidemic
Decline in human intelligence
Mega-tsunami
Resource nationalism
Failure of global governance
Hostile message received from space
Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)
Moral collapse
Robot uprising
Major synthetic biology accident
EMF radiation from mobile devices
Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild
Verneshot expulsion (look it up)
India/Pakistan war
Major under-pricing of new risks
Geomagnetic reversal
Giant methane burp
Gamma ray burst in space
Rogue black hole
Major asteroid impact on earth
Alien invasion
Tech-bubble
Clean-tech bubble
Crowd-sourced criminal activity
African disunity
Cultural rejection of new technology
Collapse of copyright laws
Israel/Iran war
Weaponization of near-space
Collapse of insurance markets
Rare-earth mineral shortages
Atomisation of human attention
Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles
Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
Rogue customer
Rising religious violence
Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption
Information overload
Decline of practical skills
Mega-earthquake in a major city
Increasing frequency & severity of storms
Major inland-flooding
Major pollution/chemical spill
Declining air quality
Cyber-disruption to logistics networks
Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest
UG99 (Google it)
Rogue employee
Rogue politician
People trying to predict Black Swan events
Believing that people will always act rationally
Digital misinformation pandemics
Lone-wolf terror attacks
Wolf-pack terror attacks
Original drawing on the kitchen table…
Almost done. Just wondering whether to make it a little topical by replacing Kim Kardashian with Donald Trump actually being elected US President.
Getting closer. Just arguing with myself about where certain ‘events’ should be placed. As you can see it’s not 100% serious (hey it gets a bit heavy in places). I was going to add Donald Trump as a global risk, but it’s a map about the future and it’s not that silly!
My new map – 101 Ways the World Could Change – is almost done. Gimme a week or so…..
Interesting news yesterday. The focus was very much on Greece, as you might expect, although what was happening in China was possibly a far bigger story and one that links to something I’ve got on my new risk map (early draft above).
If you missed it (which if you live in Europe you may well have) $3.2 trillion has been wiped off the value of the Chinese stock market in just three weeks. This may be linked to concerns about Greece, but there’s a far bigger story here in my view and one that I’ve been talking about for the past five years.
China currently has an export-orientated model. That’s fine, but it makes China hugely vulnerable to external economic shocks (such as Europe), especially when you have an imbalance of young men in the population.
It’s a bit like in that film speed, where there’s a bomb on a bus that will detonate if the bus travels at less than 50 miles per hour. China needs a certain growth rate (people used to say 8% but the figure is probably far lower than this) to keep its people happy.
If people in China (especially young men) have got jobs, homes and the prospect of buying things like cars then everyone is happy. But of Europe falls over economically this could send shock waves across China. In short the unspoken deal done by the government whereby people can get as rich as they like if they don’t criticise the ruling party blows up. People (especially young men) could be thrown out of work and potentially their homes. Hey Presto, Tiananmen Square the sequel, but this time with an overlay of social media.
Maybe that’s why the Chinese internal security budget exceeds its external defence budget. That’s what worries China!
Here’s a thought. What odds do you think you might get on there being a military coup in Greece within the next 12-months?
Here’s my initial thinking for my risk map. Probabilities are guestimates and should not be taken too seriously. Impact is generally defined as economic impact and is again only an estimate.
Anyone like to suggest anything else?
Major Risks 2015+
State sponsored cyber-crime
Loss of bio-diversity
Income-wealth polarisation
Further Russian expansion
Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure
Exchange rate volatility
Chronic labour shortages
Mass unemployment caused by automation
Increase in economic protectionism
EU incrementalism
EU collapse
Inept institutions focussed on their own survival
Oil/Gas price shock
Severe water shortages
Commodity price volatility
Evaporation of liquidity
Global financial system collapse
Rapid rise in US interest rates
Severe deflation
Inflation at >10%
Global pandemic
Regulatory change
‘Weaponization’ of finance
Biological terrorism
Nuclear terrorism
Loss of antibiotic resistance
Destabilisation of China
Un-controlled mass-migration
Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen
Unforeseen events
Unforeseen combinations of events
Widespread collapse of trust
Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)
Geo-engineering accident
Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems
Total war
Ocean acidification
Globalisation backlash
Mental health epidemic
Decline in human intelligence
Mega-tsunami
Resource nationalism
Failure of global governance
Hostile message received from space
Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)
Moral collapse
Robot uprising
Major synthetic biology accident
EMF radiation from mobile devices
Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild
Verneshot expulsion (look it up)
India/Pakistan war
Major under-pricing of new risks
Geomagnetic reversal
Giant methane burp
Gamma ray burst in space
Rogue black hole
Major asteroid impact on earth
Alien invasion
Tech-bubble
Clean-tech bubble
Crowd-sourced criminal activity
African disunity
Cultural rejection of new technology
Collapse of copyright laws
Israel/Iran war
Weaponization of near-space
Collapse of insurance markets
Rare-earth mineral shortages
Atomisation of human attention
Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles
Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
Rogue customer
Rising religious violence
Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption
Information overload
Decline of practical skills
Mega-earthquake in a major city
Increasing frequency & severity of storms
Major inland-flooding
Major pollution/chemical spill
Declining air quality
Cyber-disruption to logistics networks
Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest
UG99 (Google it)
Rogue employee
Rogue politician
People trying to predict Black Swan events
Believing that people will always act rationally
Digital misinformation pandemics
Lone-wolf terror attacks
Wolf-pack terror attacks
To be continued…
