新兴科技时间轴(2014——2030+)

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这是和帝国理工大学技术预测同行们(尤其是阿莱克斯·阿亚德(Alex Ayad),但是在后期也要特别感谢克里斯·哈利(Chris Haley))共同创作的新型科学和技术时间轴。上面是图表完工时的图片。我们对于是否把“移动电话数量超过人口”列为“当下”讨论了很久,但是电话用户超过69亿人,已经很接近人口总数了。
请点击本段最后的链接,下载适合打印的高分辨率PDF版本(建议用彩色A3或更大纸张打印)。在一周左右时间内,将会有图表的纸质打印版。在本博文底部是一些展示该图表是如何创建的图片,以及图表是如何演进的。新兴科技-5

至于图表上有什么,有5个关键大技术:数字技术(主要是信息技术)、生物技术、纳米技术、神经技术和绿色技术(有时被称为清洁技术)。

我们把图表分成3个时间区域。第一个区域是“当下”,我们定义为现在或附近(2014-2015),同时至少1000个实际例子(事件可能是一次性出现的事,但是创新一般至少要有1000个实际例子才会纳入表中)。“很有可能”是第二个区域,被定义为2015-2030。第三个区域是“有可能”,被定义为从2030年往后可能出现的事。图表的绝大部分都是严肃的,但是我们没能抗拒在一些区域娱乐一下的冲动
希望你们都喜欢它,如果你觉得它有意思或者有用的话,请和他人分享。请注意本时间轴的出版是基于知识共享许可的,所以你可以在未询问情况下将其用于商业目的或者制作不同版本。但是如果使用时能链接回我们的初始版本,我们将感激不尽。
至于每条线上有什么,这里是清单:
绿色技术 当下
廉价太阳能聚集器
绝缘气凝胶建筑
振动能量采集
社区电网
能回应指令的家用电器
LED路灯
电网规模贮存
家庭电厂(冷热电联供系统)
智能仪表
藻类生质燃料
绿色技术 很有可能
超级电容车
消费者即时定价
100%淘汰白炽灯
氢的人工光合作用
合成飞机燃料
周围的射频能量采集
束能量用于生态监测和军事无人机
大规模的碳捕捉和碳贮存
摩天大楼上的透明(有机)太阳能电池
生物可降解电池
自主车辆专用车道
电动车辆路上感应充电
超市合成肉
绿色技术 有可能
行波反应堆
燃料电池驱动的轻型客机
无人机运送比萨
商业海洋热能转换
微型风能水能收集建筑外墙
汽车波转子发动机
钍反应堆
给海洋施以铁质肥料
用3D打印技术生产的适用于垂直农业的土壤
高速人行道
昆虫汉堡食物车
超回路大众运输系统
用托卡马克核聚变发电
卫星束太空太阳能
生物技术 当下
DNA时间确认机构
基因疗法
合成有机物
对于先天性疾病进行基因测试
入侵身体以增强感官
用3D打印技术生产的骨科植入物
商业宠物克隆
源于作物的朔料
基于基因的主动医学介入
为制药培育人源化的动物
生物技术 很有可能
预防性抗生素禁止用于动物
个性化的微生物疗法
无处不在的生物感应
非源于动物的皮革
非处方基因测试
对帕金森氏综合征进行干细胞治疗
用3D打印技术生产的生物纳米支架
人类器官克隆
为个人数据存储嵌入射频识别技术
发现最后的抗生素
生物技术 有可能
用纳米纤维制造人造肌肉
基于DNA的数据贮存
微生物感应的食品包装
引入转基因蚊子以消除疟疾
人类基因工程合法化
纹身电路(人体上的视频纹身)
克隆人类
合成有机物所带来流行病
数字技术 当下
移动电话数量超过人口 (情况转变则不属于这一类?)
生活记录
加密货币
连接到网络的牙刷
现实增强眼镜
预防犯罪算法
NFC指甲
可扫描条码的墓碑
能面部识别的中央摄像头
阿凡达女友
用于游戏的大脑-计算机基本界面
跨洲机器人手术
数字技术 很有可能
实时语言翻译
量子计算机用于解密
分析内衣
AI用于全科医生手术
无辅助机器人手术
物联网超过500亿个设备
能读唇语的中央摄像头
网络攻击导致整个城市范围内断电
不用电池的无线沟通
自主电子出租车车队
实体信用卡过时
触觉学衣服
情绪感知器
昆虫大小的侦查机器人
全息数据存储
AI用于无人机-无人机战斗
太阳耀斑消除GPS网络
数字技术 可能
侵入已经植入的神经设备
城市禁止人类驾驶员
预测战争的算法
商业飞机由智能手机劫持
战事与游戏合并
机器人数量超过人类
物联网超过1万亿个设备
终身阿凡达助手
记录人类从出生到死亡整个生命
家用冰箱感知保质期
完全自主的战场机器人
量子电脑用于材料设计
纳米技术 当下
用于衣物的抗病毒纳米粒子
化妆品和遮光剂中的纳米粒子
朔料打印的电子电路
量子点电视
癌症成像和治疗的纳米粒子
用于培育人体部位干细胞的支架
蛋白质结晶的模板
自我修复的漆点和表面
用于合成神经元和合成神经植入物的纳米管
消费者电子产品中的甲醇燃料电池
纳米技术 很有可能
人工电磁材料天线
可碾压的屏幕和设备
纳米技术 可能
实验室演示人工电磁材料隐身
旋光仪使计算接近光速
室温超导体
量子点夜视窗
自主数据密集
生态系统单层石墨超级电容自我复制
IBM用动画原子做成动画片
全朔料的晶体管
下一代超轻型合成材料
每比特数据有100个原子密集
神经技术 当下
耳蜗植入
大脑指纹用于法庭
益智药用于医学或休闲使用
由思维控制的假肢
活跃大脑区域的神经成像
神经技术 很有可能
思维控制的轮椅
手机对眼球移动追踪
解码意向的算法
适应性电子助手避免信息超负荷
人工视网膜植入
不会宿醉的酒精替代品
神经技术 可能
侵入植入的神经设备
大脑-电脑界面广泛补充了键盘使用
空中旅行者大脑指纹常规
通过fMRI对梦成像和记录
沟通设备广泛嵌入到人体
基本想法的人工神经编写
用大脑假体提升或消除记忆
终结痴呆

设计开发
设计大体上基于我之前2010年后趋势和技术时间轴做的 (需要PDF版本请点击这里)。第一个草图是在厨房桌子上用铅笔在A3白纸上画的,之后不断改进了好多版(记得大约是十二版)。圆圈最初是用厨房盘子和大碗画的,彩色的线最初是用荧光笔和我孩子们的马克笔混合创作的。专业设计之前的最终版本画在了A3绘图纸上,使各要点契合并连接好。设计的功劳也属于劳伦斯·怀特利(Lawrence Whitely),特别感谢帝国理工大学的科林(Kereen)。

关于未来的更新,我们已经在考虑动画版以及积极和消极版本(乌托邦版和非乌托邦版)。如果关于图表的未来更新版本,您觉得哪些事该/不该出现在图表上(或是看到一些愚蠢的错误,请务必告之我们)。

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Ways of seeing (which I didn’t see)

Screen shot 2014-07-07 at 14.44.09Someone at the Imperial Tech Forecast event last Friday said that the new emerging tech map reminded them of an eyeball and an optic nerve. My lines (bottom right of third diagram) were merely making the point that the five key forces, or disciplines, are to some extent merging. Thinking about though, the optics thought is a good one. Bringing elements into focus, new ways of seeing, inversion of data (images) and all that.

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Timeline of Emerging Science & Technology (2014 to 2030+)

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Here is the timeline of emerging science & technology created in conjunction with the technology-forecasting folks at Imperial College London (especially Alex Ayad, but a big thanks to Chris Haley in the later stages too). Above is an image of the finished map. We had a long discussion about whether to have ‘Mobile phones outnumber people’ as ‘Present’, but at 6.9 billion phone subscriptions it’s close enough.

Download a high resolution PDF suitable for printing (Colour A3, or larger, recommended).

If you’d like a printed paper hard copy these will be available in a week or so.

At the bottom of this post are a few images showing how the map was created and how the image evolved.

In terms of what’s on the map, there are 5 key mega-technologies, which are Digital-tech (Essentially Info-tech), Bio-tech, Nano-tech, Neuro-tech and Green-tech (sometimes referred to as clean-tech).

We have split the map into 3 time zones. The first is ‘Present’, which we are defining as now or thereabouts (2014-2015) with at least 1,000 working examples where appropriate (events can be one-off occurrences, but innovations generally need at least 1,000 working examples to be included). ‘Probable’ is the second zone and this is defined as 2015-2030. The third zone is ‘Possible’, defined as being potentially available from 2030 onwards. Most of the map is serious, but we couldn’t resist having some fun in a few areas 🙂

Hope you all enjoy it and do please pass it along if you find it interesting or useful. Note that the timeline is published under a Creative Commons license so you can use it commercially or make versions of it without asking, although we would be grateful if anyone using it links back to our original version.

As for what’s on each line here’s a list.

Green-tech present
Cheap concentrator solar
Aerogel building insulation
Vibration energy harvesting
Community grids
Demand responsive domestic appliances
LED street lighting
Electric grid-scale storage
Domestic power plants (CCHP)
Smart meters
Algal biofuels

Green-tech probable
Ultra capacitor vehicles
Consumer spot-pricing of electricity
100% phase out of incandescent light bulbs
Artificial photosynthesis of hydrogen
Synthetic jet fuels
Ambient RF energy harvesting
Beamed energy for ecological monitoring & military UAVs
Large scale carbon capture & storage
Transparent (organic) solar cells on skyscrapers
Biodegradable batteries
Motorway lanes for autonomous vehicles
In-road inductive charging for electric vehicles
Synthetic meat in supermarkets

Green-tech possible
Travelling wave nuclear reactors
Fuel cell powered light passenger aircraft
Drone delivery of pizza
Commercial ocean thermal energy conversion
Micro-scale wind and water harvesting building facades
Wave disc engines for vehicles
Thorium reactors
Iron fertilisation of oceans
3D printed soil for vertical agriculture
High-speed pedestrian walkways
Insect-burger food vans
Hyper-loop mass transit systems
Tokomak nuclear fusion for power generation
Satellite beamed space-solar power

Bio-tech present
DNA dating agencies
Gene therapy
Synthetic organisms
Genetic testing for inherited diseases
Body hacking for sensory augmentation
3D printed orthopaedic implants
Commercial pet cloning
Plastics from crops
Pre-emptive medical interventions based on genome
‘Pharming’ humanised animals for medicines

Bio-tech probable
Prophylactic antibiotics banned in animals
Personalised micro biome therapy
Ubiquitous bio sensing
Animal-free leather
Over the counter genome test
Stem-cell treatment for Parkinson’s disease
3D printed bio-nano scaffolds
Human organ cloning
RFID implants for personal data storage
Last antibiotic discovered

Bio-tech possible
Artificial muscles from spun Nano-fibre
DNA based data storage
Microbe-sensing food packaging
Malaria eradicated via introduction of GM mosquitos
Human genetic engineering legalised
Tattooed circuits (video tattoos on the human body)
Cloned human being
Pandemic by synthetic organism

Digital-tech present
Mobile phones outnumber people (shift end of present?)
Life-logging
Crypto currencies
Internet connected toothbrushes
Augmented reality glasses
Crime prevention algorithms
NFC fingernails
QR scanable gravestones
Facial recognition CCTV
Avatar girlfriends
Basic brain-computer interfaces for gaming
Intercontinental robotic surgery

Digital-tech probable
Real-time language translation
Quantum computers for crypto cracking
Analytical underwear
AI in GP surgeries
Unassisted robotic surgery
Internet of things exceeds 50 billion devices
Lip-reading CCTV
Cyber attack causes citywide power cut
Battery-free wireless communications
Autonomous electric taxi fleets
Physical credit cards become obsolete
Haptic clothing
Mood sensing moods
Insect-sized surveillance robots
Holographic data storage
AI in autonomous drone-drone combat
Solar flair knocks out GPS network

Digital-tech possible
Hacking of implanted neuro-devices
Cities ban human drivers
War forecasting algorithms
Commercial aircraft highjacked via smart phone
Warfare merges with gaming
Robots outnumber human beings
Internet of things exceeds 1 trillion devices
Lifelong avatar assistants
Recording of entire human life from birth to death
Domestic fridges sense use-by dates
Fully autonomous battlefield robots
Quantum computers used for material design

Nano-tech present
Antibacterial nano-particles for clothing
Nano-particles in cosmetics and sunscreens
Plastic printed electronic circuits
Quantum dot televisions
Nanoparticles for cancer imaging and treatment
Scaffolds for growing stem cell body parts
Templates for protein crystallisation
Self-healing paints and surfaces
Nanotubes for synthetic neurons and neural implants
Methanol fuels cells for consumer electronics

Nano-tech probable
Meta-material antennae
Scrunchable screens and devices

Nano-tech possible
Lab demo of optical meta material cloaking
Polartronics enables computing near speed of light
Room temperature superconductors
Quantum dot night vision windows
Autonomou data density
Graphene super capacitorss self-replication of crude non-biological systems
IBM makes feature film from animated atoms
Fully plastic transistors
Nanotubes for synthetic neurons and neural implants
Next generation super-light composites
100 atoms per bit data density

Neuro-tech present
Cochlear implants
Brain fingerprinting used in court
Nootropic drugs for medical and recreational use
Prosthetic limbs controlled by thought
Neuro imaging of active brain areas

Neuro-tech probable
Thought controlled wheelchair
Eye tracking in mobile phones
Intention decoding algorithms
Adaptive electronic assistant to prevent information overload
Artificial retina implants
Hangover-free alcohol substitute

Neuro-tech possible
Hacking of implanted neuro devices
Brain-computer interfaces widely supplement keyboards
Routine brain finger printing of air travellers
Dream imaging and recording via fMRI
Communications devices widely embedded inside the human body
Artificial neuro-writing of basic thoughts
Brain prostheses to enhance or erase memory
End of dementia

Design development
The design is loosely based upon my previous 2010+ trends and technology timeline. (Click here for PDF). The first rough was created with a pencil on an A3 sheet of white paper on the kitchen table and then progressed through numerous versions (about a dozen from memory). The circles were originally drawn using kitchen plates and large bowls and the coloured lines were originally created using a mixture of highlighter pens and my children’s marker pens. The final version – prior to professional design input -was drawn on A3 tracing paper so as to get things aligned and connecting. Design credit also belongs to Lawrence Whitely and a big thanks is also due to Kereen at Imperial College.

As for future updates we are already thinking about an animated version and perhaps positive and negative versions (utopian and dystopian versions). If you have any ideas about what should/shouldn’t be on future versions (or spot any silly mistakes do please tell us!!!).

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Roadmap & Timeline of Emerging Science & Technology

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We are still waiting on revise 2 of the map, but in the meantime (meme time?)
I thought I’d share a few of the entries that we thought about, but which didn’t make it onto the final map. This was usually because we didn’t think that these things were really possible by a certain date, might exist, but not in significant enough numbers, or because there just wasn’t room to include everything on the map.

Notably, whilst we are including a few ‘events’ on the map (e.g. number of mobile phones exceeds human population) we have dropped the idea of having a sphere of ‘appear’ and ‘disappear’ events around the outside of the map.

Anyway, some things NOT on the map…

All windows become solar panels
Monetary policy set by algorithms
Growing coloured finger nails
All roads individually priced
Pilotless cargo aircraft
Smart teeth
Ingestible robots
Crop pollination robots
Invisibility shields
Personal data as an asset class
Uploadable skills & experience (we had downloadable too)
Online vehicle theft
End of road traffic accidents
Internet search engines than can answer any question in real time
Programmable body cells
3D printing of high end consumer goods
Fabrics that change colour and texture on demand
‘Supervision’ contact lenses
Spider-silk textiles
Synthetic wombs

New timeline of emerging science & technologies

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Almost there!

BTW, had a brainwave this morning. In Future Files (2007) I used ‘GRIN Technologies’ to denote the key emerging trends in science & technology (Genetics, Robotics, Internet and Nanotech). So how about using ‘BINNG Technologies’ ? These are at the heart of my new timeline with Imperial (Bio-tech, Info-tech (currently Digital), Nano-tech, Neuro-tech, Green-tech). Could use DINNG, but it doesn’t have quite the same ring!

Hopefully have the finished thing up by end of next week. Above is just a rough of the middle (with mistakes).

Signs of the future

I try not to post more than once a day, but this is so good and related not only to my top extinctions list but also to the timeline of emerging technologies, which is coming out very soon. Click on this link for loads more images in a similar vein.
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Person responsible is B.J. Murphy at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies and designer is Fernando Barbella. Thanks for Chris Haley at Nesta for passing it along. We are not worthy!