Why didn’t someone think if this before! (Thanks J).
In the car today.
Radio: “If you haven’t done your Christmas shopping yet there’s still a month to go”
Me: “F*%$ off” (It’s still November)
Radio: “We’re giving an Amazon Echo away. It’s great. I mean She. There’s a person inside”
Me: “FC*£@@!!*&%$$K off” (There’s not)
Crowded airspace!
(Thanks Patrick).
Map of global mega-trends and technologies from now to 2050.
Getting there….
New map by Richard Watson at nowandnext.com
Here’s my map of global game changers & regional risks. I was going to wait until September to publish this, but it’s been done early so what the heck. I’ll post a longer explanatory note about process and contents tomorrow.
If you want to download a high resolution version click here.
If you would like a print version for your wall (white out text for easier reading on paper) just get in touch and I’ll send you a different file. I suggest you print full colour at and least A3 size. A4 is too small.
I can also send out A3, A2 and A1 colour prints for a modest fee (enough to cover print, cardboard tube and post), but note that beyond A3 size the print cost isn’t cheap.
BTW, this was my original risk list. It’s changed a little and please note that about 5% of the list isn’t serious (most entries about global risks and the end of the world are a bit heavy so I needed a little light relief).
My initial (rough) list of risks…
State sponsored cyber-crime
Loss of bio-diversity
Income-wealth polarisation
Further Russian expansion
Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure
Exchange rate volatility
Chronic labour shortages
Mass unemployment caused by automation
Increase in economic protectionism
EU incrementalism
EU collapse
Inept institutions focussed on their own survival
Oil/Gas price shock
Severe water shortages
Commodity price volatility
Evaporation of liquidity
Global financial system collapse
Rapid rise in US interest rates
Severe deflation
Inflation at >10%
Global pandemic
Regulatory change
‘Weaponization’ of finance
Biological terrorism
Nuclear terrorism
Loss of antibiotic resistance
Destabilisation of China
Un-controlled mass-migration
Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen
Unforeseen events
Unforeseen combinations of events
Widespread collapse of trust
Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)
Geo-engineering accident
Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems
Total war
Ocean acidification
Globalisation backlash
Mental health epidemic
Decline in human intelligence
Mega-tsunami
Resource nationalism
Failure of global governance
Hostile message received from space
Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)
Moral collapse
Robot uprising
Major synthetic biology accident
EMF radiation from mobile devices
Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild
Verneshot expulsion (look it up)
India/Pakistan war
Major under-pricing of new risks
Geomagnetic reversal
Giant methane burp
Gamma ray burst in space
Rogue black hole
Major asteroid impact on earth
Alien invasion
Tech-bubble
Clean-tech bubble
Crowd-sourced criminal activity
African disunity
Cultural rejection of new technology
Collapse of copyright laws
Israel/Iran war
Weaponization of near-space
Collapse of insurance markets
Rare-earth mineral shortages
Atomisation of human attention
Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles
Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
Rogue customer
Rising religious violence
Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption
Information overload
Decline of practical skills
Mega-earthquake in a major city
Increasing frequency & severity of storms
Major inland-flooding
Major pollution/chemical spill
Declining air quality
Cyber-disruption to logistics networks
Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest
UG99 (Google it)
Rogue employee
Rogue politician
People trying to predict Black Swan events
Believing that people will always act rationally
Digital misinformation pandemics
Lone-wolf terror attacks
Wolf-pack terror attacks
Original drawing on the kitchen table…
Getting closer. Just arguing with myself about where certain ‘events’ should be placed. As you can see it’s not 100% serious (hey it gets a bit heavy in places). I was going to add Donald Trump as a global risk, but it’s a map about the future and it’s not that silly!
My new map – 101 Ways the World Could Change – is almost done. Gimme a week or so…..
I’ve got maps coming out of my ears! Doing 101 Global risks, a new 2015+ Trends & Technology Timeline, the Future of London and now the Future of the NHS (National Health Service). This last one is a treat because the deadline is 2018 and I’ve got access to 100+ consultants from across the NHS. Bliss.
Here’s my initial thinking for my risk map. Probabilities are guestimates and should not be taken too seriously. Impact is generally defined as economic impact and is again only an estimate.
Anyone like to suggest anything else?
Major Risks 2015+
State sponsored cyber-crime
Loss of bio-diversity
Income-wealth polarisation
Further Russian expansion
Cyber-disruption of critical infrastructure
Exchange rate volatility
Chronic labour shortages
Mass unemployment caused by automation
Increase in economic protectionism
EU incrementalism
EU collapse
Inept institutions focussed on their own survival
Oil/Gas price shock
Severe water shortages
Commodity price volatility
Evaporation of liquidity
Global financial system collapse
Rapid rise in US interest rates
Severe deflation
Inflation at >10%
Global pandemic
Regulatory change
‘Weaponization’ of finance
Biological terrorism
Nuclear terrorism
Loss of antibiotic resistance
Destabilisation of China
Un-controlled mass-migration
Deliberate release of a genetically modified pathogen
Unforeseen events
Unforeseen combinations of events
Widespread collapse of trust
Balkanisation of the internet (‘Splinternet’)
Geo-engineering accident
Loss of control to artificial intelligence systems
Total war
Ocean acidification
Globalisation backlash
Mental health epidemic
Decline in human intelligence
Mega-tsunami
Resource nationalism
Failure of global governance
Hostile message received from space
Eruption of super-volcano (e.g. Yellowstone)
Moral collapse
Robot uprising
Major synthetic biology accident
EMF radiation from mobile devices
Self-replicating Nano-machines running wild
Verneshot expulsion (look it up)
India/Pakistan war
Major under-pricing of new risks
Geomagnetic reversal
Giant methane burp
Gamma ray burst in space
Rogue black hole
Major asteroid impact on earth
Alien invasion
Tech-bubble
Clean-tech bubble
Crowd-sourced criminal activity
African disunity
Cultural rejection of new technology
Collapse of copyright laws
Israel/Iran war
Weaponization of near-space
Collapse of insurance markets
Rare-earth mineral shortages
Atomisation of human attention
Decrease in longevity due to sedentary lifestyles
Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz
Rogue customer
Rising religious violence
Global dimming due to pollution or super-eruption
Information overload
Decline of practical skills
Mega-earthquake in a major city
Increasing frequency & severity of storms
Major inland-flooding
Major pollution/chemical spill
Declining air quality
Cyber-disruption to logistics networks
Expansion of Middle Eastern unrest
UG99 (Google it)
Rogue employee
Rogue politician
People trying to predict Black Swan events
Believing that people will always act rationally
Digital misinformation pandemics
Lone-wolf terror attacks
Wolf-pack terror attacks
To be continued…
Rough is done. Give it a week or two and I’ll have something presentable.
