Naked Writing

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I received an email from friend (a company in Australia) the other day saying that a more natural tone/voice was finding its way into corporate communications. It don’t know if that’s true, but judging by the response I’m getting from my introductions to brainmail it could be. Frankly I’m a little bored with organisational spin and individual puff. I don’t know whether it’s a stream of consciousness thing or existential angst, but I’m increasingly letting it all hang out in plain sight.

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Dear readers,

Stuck for something to read over the holidays? Why not start with some mind-expanding material in the form of brainmail issue number 95?

My own holiday plans have changed a bit. Arizona is postponed and we’re now off to look at the ruins of the Euro in Greece.

So what’s in issue 95? Loads of suspect statistics, most of which have probably been made up by some bloke in a pub. Also some inventions that may or may not stand the test of time. My personal favourites this month include burial plots for plus-sized people that should have eaten far fewer donuts and the live streaming of funerals (not related as far as I can tell). There’s also a statistic about walking speeds around the world (we’re generally walking faster, apparently, although why everyone is rushing is still very unclear to me).

BTW, it’s hard to believe, but brainmail is now on Facebook. Personally I can’t stand the thing, but the animals kept giving me a certain look. Apparently there’s significant pressure in the feline and canine worlds to emulate Katy Perry, although the fact that they’ve only got two followers has created a rather depressing atmosphere. All they do is mope around the house looking at screens all day wondering why they’re not famous yet (or maybe that’s my kids?).

https://www.facebook.com/brainmailnewsletter?ref=aymt_homepage_panelThink

Aaaaaanyway, your overdue issue links are right here…

Desktop/big screen version
http://brainmail.nowandnext.com/brainmail_issue95.txt

Smart mobile/small screen version
http://brainmail.nowandnext.com/brainmail_issue95i.txt

Live long and prosper,

Best wishes

Richard

Quote of the Week

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“If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange these apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas.”
– George Bernard Shaw

Global Risks (China)

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Richard watson risk map (draft)

 

Interesting news yesterday. The focus was very much on Greece, as you might expect, although what was happening in China was possibly a far bigger story and one that links to something I’ve got on my new risk map (early draft above).

If you missed it (which if you live in Europe you may well have) $3.2 trillion has been wiped off the value of the Chinese stock market in just three weeks. This may be linked to concerns about Greece, but there’s a far bigger story here in my view and one that I’ve been talking about for the past five years.

China currently has an export-orientated model. That’s fine, but it makes China hugely vulnerable to external economic shocks (such as Europe), especially when you have an imbalance of young men in the population.

It’s a bit like in that film speed, where there’s a bomb on a bus that will detonate if the bus travels at less than 50 miles per hour. China needs a certain growth rate (people used to say 8% but the figure is probably far lower than this) to keep its people happy.

If people in China (especially young men) have got jobs, homes and the prospect of buying things like cars then everyone is happy. But of Europe falls over economically this could send shock waves across China. In short the unspoken deal done by the government whereby people can get as rich as they like if they don’t criticise the ruling party blows up. People (especially young men) could be thrown out of work and potentially their homes. Hey Presto, Tiananmen Square the sequel, but this time with an overlay of social media.

Maybe that’s why the Chinese internal security budget exceeds its external defence budget. That’s what worries China!

 

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Weak signals (Digital v Human)

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A few things I’ve noticed recently. First my own behaviour. I never listen to voicemails nowadays – it takes too long. Second, have you noticed how few websites are now giving you the option to print an article? (see above). For me this doesn’t matter with small bits of information, but if you are trying to digest/understand something of significant length/complexity I think it does.

The other thing I saw yesterday, which is either a weak signal or a blip, is that digital solutionism seems to be suffering a few defeats. Facebook has said that it is returning to “the qualitative” – which I think means people, while both Apple and Google have started to use people to assemble playlists.

Is this a tentative embrace of human judgment, empathy and intuition or just a bit of PR manipulation?

A writer’s lament

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I like this, from a letter by Herman Melville to Julian Hawthorne, as he was hurrying to finish his book, Moby Dick. Rings a little true.

“I am so pulled hither and thither by circumstances. The calm, the coolness, the silent grass-growing mood in which a man ought always to compose, that, I fear, can seldom be mine. Dollars damn me; and the malicious Devil is forever grinning in upon me, holding the door ajar. My dear Sir, a presentiment is on me, I shall at last be worn out and perish, like an old nutmeg-grater, grated to pieces by the constant attrition of the wood, that is, the nutmeg. What I feel most moved to write, that is banned, it will not pay. Yet, altogether, write the other way I cannot. So the product is a final hash, and all my books are botches.

http://www.melville.org/letter3.htm