It’s finally up. Late, but up. For the brand new issue (issue 22) of my (free!) What’s Next trend report just go to nowandnext.com and click on the orange box on the home page – far left top. Enjoy!
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What Am I Saying?
As you can tell I’m not as busy as I have been. I’m also obsessed with Tag Crowd. The image above is what happened when I fed about 0,000 words from a failed book experiment into the tag machine.
People again!!! Don again????
So I’ve been thinking. What if you could capture what people are saying (talking on phones), texting and typing (email) and do a tag cloud for each minute, hour, day, week and so on. Wouldn’t that be fascinating? What would we all be saying? I know there’s Google Zeitgeist but that’s not quote the same thing. That’s just internet searches. I’m talking about what everyone in the world is saying to each another.
Reverse Brainstorming
Where’s Wally? I’m in Hong Kong. The airport is scary empty. London Heathrow was much the same. Is it the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) or just the GAP (Global Anxiety Pandemic?). I think a mixture of both. Anyway, no trouble ordering a bacon sandwich in the Virgin Clubhouse.
Great talk by the CEO/Chairman of Cafe Nero at the Retail Forum I was speaking at in London. He mentioned that he ran a regular one day event for all regional and area managers – about 160 staff- in which he wasn’t allowed to speak for six hours (he could write things on flip-charts but that was it). Staff were not allowed to say ANYTHING positive whatsoever about the company during the day. In other words, the aim of the session was to identify problems and weaknesses. He didn’t seem to have a name for this idea but I like the idea of reverse brainstorming. In short, build a problem factory and the innovation will come….
Information Pandemics
Remember my 2009 trend map? Well look again and you will see an Influenza Pandemic as a global risk top right hand side. Guess I got lucky. Or perhaps not. What I think we have currently is an information pandemic.
News is travelling too fast – thanks to global connectivity – and what is contagious is actually anxiety, which is moving too fast to be contained. For example, I was staying at a hotel this morning and I asked for some bacon for breakfast. I couldn’t have any. It was off the menu due to Swine Flu in Mexico. Give me a break.
Is this a problem? One would imagine it is. First this is adding to existing anxieties (the economy, climate change and so on). Second, if this turns out to be not the real thing – which, I suspect, it will – then we will take less notice when there really is a genuine global pandemic out there.
I suggest that everyone tales a couple of aspirin and calms down.
Future Inventions
Invisibility cloaks
There appear to be two ways of doing this:
1. Optical camouflage — project your surroundings back onto yourself. For example, if a soldier is in a wood the trees could be projected onto every part of your clothing or equipment in the same way that a Gecko disguises itself.
2. Force light to travel around an object thereby making the object ‘disappear’. This is essentially reverse reflection and operates in a manner that is similar to the old straw in a glass of water trick where the straw appears to be bent.
Emotionally aware machines
Toyota is currently working on a technology that would allow a car to sense a driver’s emotional mood and then change itself to increase safety. Similarly, Microsoft is looking at ways of enabling your computer to work out what kind of mood you are in (relaxed, busy, angry etc) and then time the arrival of emails to suit your mood.In theory online retailers could also judge a persons mood and instantly personalise either their homepage or product offers.
Robotic soldiers
The biggest military contract in US history was recently awarded for the development of what was euphemistically called Future Combat Systems (robo soldiers to you and me). However, anyone expecting Robocop with an Uzi will be sadly disappointed, at least in the short term. Currently these robots look like rather lethal Tonka toys although the intelligence of these things should grow. On a related note the US military is also developing a range of SWORDS (Special Weapons Observation Reconnaissance Detection System), which is likely to cover spy planes the size of house flies (Fly Planes?), robo goats and robo lobsters.
Vertical city farms
By 2050 80% of the world’s population (around 9 billion people) will live in cities.Given the need for land and the pressure to reduce transportation (due to climate change but also because of congestion) high-rise farms will start to be built in the middle of cities. This will satisfy the need for fresh local produce but should also reduce carbon emissions and reduce run-off. Cities are generally warmer than the surrounding countryside some energy requitement for heating may be reduced in some areas too.
Space elevators
A space elevator is a structure whereby objects can be sent to and from space using a tethered cable or similar. The idea is a bit Jack-in-the beanstalk but is technically possible if you could make s structure strong enough. In space there would need to be a counter weight, which is somewhat problematical, not least because the strength of the earth’s gravity would tend to pull the counterweight back to earth. Perhaps a better idea would be to use space elevator on a planet such as Mars that has a weaker gravitational field.
Fully sensory internet
In the US you can buy a gaming vest filled with compressed air that simulates the sensation of being shot. In Japan and the US you can buy aroma pods that download smells from the internet and haptic technology already simulates the feel of things that don’t actually exist. Combine all of these elements with a few hallucinatory drugs and you’d have a virtual reality that was very close to the real thing.
Childcare robots
In Japan you can buy a 38cm robot that can do the babysitting. It sends pictures to the parent’s mobile phone of the child sleeping and uses face recognition technology to know whether someone is friend or foe. The bot, known as PaPeRo (Partner type Personal Robot) can be sent instructions to play with the child, again by mobile phone. The bot is currently being trailed in a day care centre in Tokyo.
Robotic surgery
This is the use of robots to perform surgery on humans or animals or remote surgery using a combination of human surgeon and robotic assistant. In 1988 Imperial College London used a bot to perform prostrate surgery and the first remote surgery (between a human surgeon in New York and a pig patient in France) took place in 2001.The world’s first fully unmanned surgery took place in Italy in 2006.
Microscopic robotic surgeons
In 1966 the film Fantastic voyage features a miniaturized submarine that was injected into the blood stream of a patent. In the future nanotechnology may create a miniature robot than can enter the body via the bloodstream to treat or repair body damage.
Intelligent dating device – IDD
A device that is worn by a person to a) tell you whether someone in the immediate vicinity is available for dating and b) whether that someone will be attracted to you.
3D printers
A home based machine that can print any 3D object by layering successive layers of material upon each other. For example, after downloading the right software/blue prints the machine could ‘print’ a new element for a kitchen kettle or a new SIM card for a mobile phone. The ultimate aim of this technology would probably be to create a machine that can create itself.
Oceanic thermal converter
A method for generating electricity using the temperature differences that exist between deep and shallow water in our oceans. Technically a heat exchange engine that would be many times more efficient that wave power.
Fish ranching
Giant cages that float around the world’s oceans growing fish. The cages would float on the ocean currents but would contain GPS so people know where they are together with a propulsion system so that when the fish are ready to eat the cage can be driven to the nearest port.
Synthetic reality /programmable matter
Self-assembling machines using man made atoms. The individual elements can be programmed to change shape or colour and can instantly morph into any 3D object including replica of human beings. Currently dubbed claytronics (a reference to claymation) the idea is being worked on at Carnegie Mellon University in the US.
In some ways this technology could achieve a form of teleportation because full size replica of oneself could be ‘sent’ over the Internet much in the same way that words and pictures currently are. A camera would capture an image of the person and then this would be sent to a lump of ‘clay’ somewhere, which then morphs into ‘you’.
Injections to treat addictions
This exists already in pill form (Vivitrol) and the FDA has given approval to an injectable version of the drug (Naltrexone) back in 2006.
Sex and Drugs and Chinese Rolls
I’m in Hong Kong reading FT Weekend eating a Chinese spring roll (bit of
a conundrum, but in the end I went all eclectic and opted for the brown sauce).
I got a lift to the airport from Andrew who is working on a project for a pharma company so his car was full of OTC medicines. Sex at 35,000 ft? Unfortunately not, although I did manage to find a very fine film on the plane called Sex Drive.
The last week was fun. Eight talks across Wales on weathering the economic storm. What a fantastic country. I even bought a CD of Welsh male voice choir music, which I played whilst driving through Snowdonia. Talk about stirring the soul. My mental Magi Mix was on high speed with thoughts whipping around my ears at great speed.
One thing that occurred to me half way up a Welsh mountain was that I’m not very found of new things. This is pretty ironic for a so-called futurist but there you go. I far prefer things that are old. Things that have been there, done that and come back clutching a T-shirt. Why could this be so? I think it is because old things, especially things that have been made by the hand of man, somehow put things into context. They remind us that we are nothing. Or at least they put the brakes on any grandiose thoughts we have about our own self-importance.
Twitter? Give me a break. In the grand scheme of things this idea is not even a punctuation mark. I suspect that even the internet may turn out to be no more than a glorified new motorway system. Things will move faster than ever before and we will undoubtedly be able to do many things that were once impossible but, when more has been said than done, the basics won’t have changed very much.
By the way, buy the first issue of Wired magazine (UK edition). It’s quite interesting, although quite how I became an “expert” is quite beyond me. Maybe if you hang out somewhere for long enough people just think that you belong.
Anti-Nostalgia
Interesting article by Jan Dalley in the FT last weekend (I get rather behind with my reading sometimes). Are we riding a wave of anti-nostalgia at the moment? I think Dalley might be onto something with this trend. The idea here is the ‘old world’ versus the ‘new’ and how the new often falls flat on its face and disappoints. She is talking largely about art but the idea stands up on a broader level I think.
One could perhaps frame this conflict as technology versus humanity. Where’s the evidence? Personally I’d point to the current popularity of old predictions circulating on the internet and books such as Where’s My Jet Pack by Daniel H Wilson. Interestingly there is possibly a connection here with two of the scenarios worlds that I commented on a few weeks ago, namely ‘Enoughism’ versus ‘Smart Planet’. Keep your eyes open for other examples of techno-backlash.
Tomorrow’s People
I keep meaning to finish off the last few pages of The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb but I keep getting sidetracked. This time it’s because of another book called Tomorrow’s People by Susan Greenfield. I’m doing a presentation on Friday on the Future of Policing to a law enforcement agency and I’m reading up on future technology. If you haven’t read it this is a superb book on how technology is changing the way that people think and act. In fact it could be the best book I’ve ever read on the subject.
Some of the other stuff I’ve found within scenario documents produced by the CIA, National Intelligence Council and the Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre (part of the MOD) is quite breathtaking. I was aware of some of this but the sophistication of some of the surveillance and predictive technologies (especially reality mining) is quite extraordinary. BTW, I’m not saying that this is good or bad, just that it exists and will become more pervasive in the near future.
Economic Protectionism
One of the trends that I talked about in my book, Future Files, was that globalisation was creating a strong counter-trend of localisation and that eventually we would see a rise in nationalism and economic protectionism. Well sure enough it’s happening.
India has just banned all imports of Chinese built toys for six months. India gets about 50% of its toys from China and exports are worth around GBP £350 million per year to the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, in the UK there are calls for “British Jobs for British Workers”. It’s much the same story in North America and elsewhere.
So far all fairly obvious. But what are some of the other consequences of a global slowdown?
In my view economics deeply influences politics so we can expect the economic situation to deeply define politics for at least the next 2-3 years. The bad news is that we will probably see a swing towards extremism and there could easily be a significant swing to the far-right.
The model here is the politics of the 1930s, where economic woes fanned the flames of far-right extremism in Europe but also of racist movements such as the KKK in the US. Don’t think that this could be a slow shift either. If recent events tell us anything it’s surely that we live in a globally connected world where ideas and actions can travel at extraordinary speed. I hope this isn’t 1939 returning.
2049 Wine Tasting
Another strangely addictive posting from the blog set in the year 2049 (p40y.com)
Ridiculous. I couldn’t do anything today because of an ant. The kitchen was full of them so I wiped them all up with a dishcloth, threw them into the sink and turned the hot coffee tap on. They all drowned except for one with a very large head. It had climbed up to the very top of the dishcloth and sat there surrounded by a sea of coffee. I was going to save it on the basis of sheer tenacity but when I came back to the sink two minutes later it was dead. I feel terrible. Here was an ant with drive and determination and I killed it. I am the ant bully.
Off to Shanghai for a few days tomorrow for the 165th Hospices De Beaune wine tasting. I got a special offer about this on my AiPhoneâ„¢, which had predicted that I would be interested in going having tracked my movements in and around Beaune last year. I think my voice conversations about my love affair with French reds probably triggered something in the phone company database too.
My favourite wine last year was the 2044 Mazis-Chambertin Grand Cru Cuvée Madeleine Collignon followed by the 2045 Mersault Genevrieres 1er Cru Cuvée Philippe Lebon although I still haven’t got over the Chinese guy that diluted his wine with organic Coca-Cola.