The final scenario report has just gone live at the following link…

http://www.sl.nsw.gov.au/services/public_libraries/publications/docs/bookendsscenarios.pdf

BTW, if this won’t click go to comments on this post.

A new scenario matrix (slightly tweaked with revised book titles). Getting very close to the end of the project…
All material should be available to all within 4-6 weeks.

Here’s a table containing a summary of key characteristics. Again, it’s just a draft.

Scenario 1 Draft

This is a world of distant thunder, where people have become alarmed about the health of the planet, especially the destructive effects of global growth and rampant consumerism. Following a series of highly destructive weather events, financial catastrophes and pandemics, people turn against the globalists, the techno-futurists and the multi-nationalists to look for simpler and more sustainable solutions closer to home. This is a world of strong family ties where people trust each other. It is also a world where people are drawn to things that don’t change, where free public spaces that are open to old and young alike are valued and protected.

Hence the idea of local living gains momentum, which, ironically, becomes a global movement. The leaders of the campaign then merge their ideas with those of a number of other likeminded movements, including the Slow Cities movement and the Fair Trade Alliance, and the Commonsense Revolution is born.

This is a sustainable world of switching things off, living on less and doing without certain things. It is intensely local, fiercely authentic, more emotional, less rational, more reflective and multi-sensorial. Climate change and resource shortages mean that energy efficiency is a key priority and local governments fund small grassroots campaigns to persuade people to generate their own power and recycle their own water. Grants also encourage people to grown their own food and large areas of publicly owned land are given over to city-farms and village growing co-operatives.

Alternative energy is key feature of this world, although most of the solutions remain fairly low-tech. Power generation shifts to local networks to avoid losses due to transmission and most homes, offices and public buildings generate at least some of the power they require through a mixture of solar and wind power.

Use of fossil fuels is significant for many decades (especially in transportation and manufacturing) but the mixture of high prices and green taxation means that the days of oil, coal and gas are numbered.However, at a domestic level change takes hold far sooner. The use of electrical goods declines and there is a slow but significant drift back towards analogue and human-powered technologies due to reliability and cost considerations. Hence, $2,000 tumble dryers are thrown out and recycled in favour of $20 washing lines. Cars are replaced with scooters and bicycles, people make and mend their own clothes and children start walking to school again.

Use of the internet, social networks and virtual worlds also decline, partly due to cost. This doesn’t mean that all technology is rejected, simply that people think carefully about what they need and try to achieve some level of balance by weighing up the personal against the collective disadvantages. Technology is balanced against overall human needs.

The only exception to the widespread rejection of electronics is the mobile phone. The use of mobiles increases for a number of years but eventually starts to fall off following a number of research studies linking mobile phone use to EMF radiation and cancer. Local governments then start to ban the use of mobiles in government building such as schools, hospitals and libraries.

To begin with this provokes a number of protests, especially from young users, who organise flash-mob protests, but eventually people accept the ruling and divert their calls to landline telephones instead. This co-incidentally proves to be an extremely good idea because landlines turn out to be far more resilient against power blackouts and phone viruses.

Work, too, is localised. There are still people that travel vast distances to work by public transport and there are those that travel the world in search of meaningful employment or escape. But by and large people shift their employment needs and leisure diversions to things that are more local. Work-life balance remains a key part of this equation, with many people giving up a proportion of their income in return for less travel or less stress. This means there is a gradual drift away from the big cities towards smaller towns and villages although some people, especially singles, are still attracted to major urban areas, which are now more ordered and calmer than they were in 2009.

In terms of information, things start to change here too. The production of new information declines substantially due to the slow shift away of the internet and digital devices. There is also a noticeable shift by consumers of information towards quality sources. In most instances trusted sources are fairly local, although a handful of well-established global infotainment brands and academic information publishers
do extremely well.

The movement towards safe sources also benefits physical books. e-Books are widely rejected due to concerns about sustainability but also because there is a feeling that digital devices like these benefit nobody over the longer-term. For example, a series of scientific studies demonstrates that the repeated use of mobile devices during the early part of the 21st century led to a decline in empathy due to a focus on the self and also a reduction in overall intelligence due to a lack of contextual understanding. People also believe that e-books accelerate the outsourcing of the human mind and user underestimate the literal and figurative sense of weight that is part of the analogue reading experience.

Physical books (including old and second-hand books) therefore make a rather unexpected re-appearance and physical libraries do well too because they are perceived as important pillars of the local community where people can physically interact and converse.  Thus, libraries are transformed into local information centres, dispensing vital community information and also providing a physical refuge where disadvantaged groups can seek protection as well as knowledge.

Government funding for libraries remains low in this world, partly because economic growth is now restrained but also because environmental security and the health of the ageing population remain higher priorities. A new Libraries Act also signals a shift towards the introduction of more user-pays services and an end to what some library users consider ‘restrictive’ practices. Staffing is therefore tight but libraries cope with surging user demand by recruiting multi-skilled personnel and also by enticing retired knowledge workers to work part-time.

It is not all good news though. Libraries struggle to maintain old buildings, which are regularly attacked by the wild weather and there is also pressure from local government to make the buildings as green as possible and to add as many government services as physically possible.

Draft Timeline — Scenario #1

2010
Library visits up 4.25% over previous year and 17.49% over past 5 years
New strain of H5N1 influenza emerges and kills 250,000 in China alone
The Murray River records lowest ever flow of 88 gigalitres in January 2010
Collapse of Macquarie Bank sparks dancing protests again globalisation
Study finds that attention spans have declined to 2-minutes for teens.
Local newspapers resist widespread shift to e-news
Report claims that the average avatar uses more energy than the average German
Online banking accounts tumble in favour of local branches
The local living movement starts in Parkes and spreads throughout NSW
Library visits up 12% on 2009

2011
Launch of Local Living magazine. First print run is 100,000 copies
American Express (aka American Excess) loses major class action in US
Biofuel production blamed for death of 150,000 children in India
Australia records driest year on record
Local Living circulation now at 200,000 copies per month
Widespread flooding in USA
Commonwealth Bank opens series of branches inside libraries
Climate change and work-life balance key issues in Australian federal election
Slow Cities movement signs up councils across Europe — traffic banned at weekends
Sony successfully sued in France for peddling addictive video games

2012
Felix Denis buys Local Living magazine. US edition sells 950,000 in first month
CSIRO unveils nano ‘wallpaper’ for use on roofs and sides of houses
Water restrictions re-introduced and made permanent in most Australian cities
New-build swimming pools banned whilst existing pools attract pool tax
Google zeitgeist announces that ‘sustainability’ was 8th most popular search in 2011
Washing machine sales tumble by 50% year on year
Amazon withdraws Kindle 3 from sale in Australia
Global boycott of plastic packaging extends to plastics used in technology devices
Robotic pets the biggest flop of Christmas 2012
Bob Dylan’s Shelter from the Storm is re-released on vinyl and sells 900,000 copies

2013
People start to fill in swimming pools to grow vegetables
Launch of the ‘Analogue Coalition’ to protect physical books and letter writing
Study by the Australia Institute claims that 45% of households have downshifted
Article in newspaper claims that second-hand bookshops opening at rate of ten a week
Survival store opens next door to the Apple store in George Street, Sydney
IAG refuse to insure any real estate situated within 5km of the coast
Boom in sale of domestic security products
Dick Smith launches Battler’s Bank
European Union collapses in face of rising nationalist sentiment
Oil now at $160 a barrel and rising
Boycott of plastic toys knocks 30% of Hasbro’s share price in US

2014
McDonald’s announce that their menu is now 100% local and organic
Car sales down 20% with the exception of city runabouts
Apple stores burnt down. Slogans on pavements outside include people not machines
Major shift towards home-based leisure announced by Mintel Research
85% of adults in Australia claim they would like to be a civil servant
Number of robots in domestic service worldwide drops from 4 million to 657,000
30% of children now either walk or cycle to schools (up from 9% in 2007)
Chinese economy turns inwards after GDP growth slips to 4%
Wikipedia starts to publish physical encyclopaedias

2015
Local governments announce library grants for citizen-preservation of local history
Sales of Dutch bicycles increase four fold in six-months
Government announces that the weight of the average child has fallen by 5%
Reports says that walking speeds in major cities have fallen by 5% in 5 years
95% of ocean fish now below sustainable levels
76% of young adults now a member of at least one single issue action group
Volume of traffic on UK roads drops by 30%
PEW report claims that 76% of Americans have nil or negative net worth
Insurance on property now represents 25% of global GDP

2016
Study shows link between mobile phone use and childhood leukaemia
Local governments ban use of mobile phones in schools and hospitals
Ban extended to all government building including libraries
Teens gather outside schools to protest against phone bans
Police able to fine parents that place TVs or computers in children’s rooms
Penn State University says average person has 50 hours of free time per week
33% of Chinese patent applications are to do with bicycles or e-scooters

2017
Second study finds definitive link between mobile phones and brain cancer
Mobile phone sales fall by 800% in six months
Local governments announce grants to ‘green’ old library buildings
6 out of 10 of the fastest growing companies in the US are environment related
Newspaper says that office productivity has increased 25% since death of Twitter
25% of Silicon Valley start-ups now clean tech related
Chinese economy collapses following major banking scandal
Google abandons book digitalisation project citing copyright issues

2018
BBC media buys the Australian physical newspaper assets of News Corporation
US v Google anti-trust case results in break-up and sale of library assets
Book sales now exceed lottery ticket sales worldwide
Average life expectancy in Asia now 65 and falling
Invention of paper announced as ‘world’s greatest’
Deceleration named as the #1 trend of 2018 by What’s Next report
Study finds that investment in technology has no noticeable impact on intelligence

2019
Oil hits $200 a barrel
Fresh water now largely priced by time of use x litres
Survivalism for Dummies is the runaway publishing hit of 2019
List of best professions includes; green architects, teachers, booksellers and librarians
40% of bank loans now used to improve the energy efficiency of real estate
Local government places restrictions on the use of technology in classrooms
Russia turns off gas pipeline to Europe citing resource security issues

2020
NPR report says that library use has quadrupled over the past 20 years
YouGov report says that stress costs the UK economy £66 billion per year
Readers Digest named as most trusted media brand alongside BBC and ABC
Series of scandals relating to accuracy of information used by Fox News

2021
Libraries introduce free health screening for over 55s
Rising sea levels cause mass population movements globally
77% of people say that they expect everything to be lots worse next year
‘Library on a bike’ a major hit across Asia
Local government allocates funds for development of mobile library network
Libraries experience surging demand for survivalist books and especially talks

2022
Reports says that more people know their neighbours names that 25 years ago
Sales of fountain pens up 80% in Japan
ABC childcare in second collapse as parents shift towards home-based work
Best selling book of 2022 is Books and Other Things that are Supposed to be Dead
Libraries sell board games

2023
Report says that average number of real friends has risen from 4 to 9 in 10 years
Libraries attract funding for series of events on Slow Living
Sales of garden equipment up 400% since 2019
Evening chess nights a surprise hit in local libraries

2024
Oxford University study claims that obesity epidemic is officially over
Global demand for flood engineers outstrips supply by 500:1
High winds kill 2010 overnight in Melbourne
Woolworth’s announces launch of farmer’s markets in all its car parks from Feb 2025

2025
Libraries offer free language services for recently arrived migrants
Extended Financial Families become the dominant household type in Australia
Laptop computers banned in public libraries
Report by Library Council of NSW says that paper is most durable media format

2026
Imported bottled water now banned although some supplies manage to drip through
Libraries become pivotal in tackling social exclusion
Libraries create events to build community identity and develop citizenship
Best selling book of 2026 is Books and other Things that are Supposed to be Dead

2027
Reports claims that Australia has lost 5% of its coastline due to erosion.
Increase in demand for wind-up products, especially radios and torches

2028
Book by James Lovelock Jnr claims that 98% of human race will be extinct by 2100
78% of people say they wish James Lovelock jnr would become extinct by 2029
New local tax on non-renewable energy consumption

2029
White candle sales catch fire and grow 800% in a single year
Local search trend intensifies
Collection strategies switch from vocational learning to local history and environment

2030
Librarians named as ‘living national treasures’ by Local Living magazine
Report says that global happiness index is at highest level since 1945
Philanthropists divert funds to public libraries

Scenario 2 Draft

In the beginning was the word and the word was good. But in the 1990s words became art supplies. Visual thinking had emerged as the hallmark of a new culture and the purveyors of mere words began to struggle.  This is a fast-paced world where innovation drives the supply of an endless variety of novel products and services.

Attention spans drop, demand for snack-sized information grows (a vicious circle) and employment increasingly shifts to virtual, mobile and networked models where people can work where, when and with whom they like. Demand for vocational information increases but so too does demand for escapism and distraction.

On many levels it is a harmonious world. Customers are now the co-creators of many of the things that they consume, including entertainment and information. In this sense it is more democratic than 2009. Individuals that did not previously have a voice are now creating and distributing ideas. It is a world where content consumers feed off content producers and vice versa. Individuals and institutions are highly networked and highly collaborative and library users have developed the ability to shift effortlessly across multiple formats and modes of information.

Technology, as you’d expect, is highly coveted, whether it is the latest phone, the latest hybrid vehicle or the latest energy dashboard. It is a world of smart science and engineering: genetics, robotics and nanotechnology. Clean technology is huge as is planetary engineering, which solves some but not all of the problems relating to climate change.The internet and virtual worlds are also big, very big,although
most people now connect to online sources of information and entertainment via mobile phones not fixed devices like PCs or TVs. Online video is very  popular, as is the spoken word but  text-based information and entertainment is in decline. Hence, sales of physical books, newspapers and magazine are all falling.

As it turns out, this is not a flat world, as predicted by Thomas Friedman, but a very spiky one, as prophesied by Richard Florida. Global cities like Sydney and San Francisco attract entrepreneurs and innovators but other areas, especially rural areas, struggle to attract or retain creative talent. This Polarisation is very evident within public libraries, with the very best urban libraries attracting the very best library talent from around the world, whereas second and third tier libraries struggle to compete.
As a result, library funding and library services are effectively split into two.

Flagship libraries (generally, but not exclusively, located in urban centres) modernise and extend their services and start to provide services to other libraries for a fee. Funding for digital and life-long learning is available from a variety of commercial sources and this inevitably leads to the development of a range of user-pays and subscription services, which in turn reduce access and equity in some areas.

Ironically, whilst online learning, social networks and virtual worlds proliferate, physical libraries and physical artefacts do not die. Far from it. The sheer volume of fast-paced, byte-sized information that is now readily available to everyone creates a significant demand for the very opposite.

Many people, particularly parents with small children and seniors, now place a high value upon physical media and physical spaces (especially known library and information ‘brands’).

This is partly because physical objects and environments (including people) are regarded as having greater resilience and trustworthiness but it is also because physical things are attractive due to familiarly and aesthetics. In other words, after several decades of digital living it suddenly dawns on people that something is missing in their lives — and this thing turns out to be physical things; people, physical places and physical objects.

Libraries thus evolve into venues for the physical interaction between people and ideas – a strange mixture of slow analogue thinking spaces and fast ‘spot knowledge’ centres. Other services are then added, ranging from cafes, restaurants and childcare crèches to employment and immigration services. Libraries then develop a series of joint ventures including help kiosks in shopping centres, airports and hospitals and cerebral workout centres in hospitals.

Librarians also transform into highly valued knowledge assistants and navigators, adept both at sifting information (recommending certain sources or content over and above others) and at contextualising information and knowledge. Librarians also become content creators. Local history is not only archived but is created and filtered locally and librarians facilitate the open cataloguing of much material. This local content is also turned into highly profitable live events, many of which prove far more popular than the static collections from whence they came.

Local and State governments still provide funding to libraries, but this does not generally cover basic running costs. Hence libraries start to introduce a range of premium (paid) services, although, again, this raises all kinds of issues relating to access and equity. This ultimately leads to a new Libraries Act, which on the one hand widens library access but also creates a series of new pay-as-you-go library services.

Media formats themselves are still in a state of flux and this adds to costs, as does the constant churn of new e-book titles, vocational courses and staff turnover.

Draft Timeline #2

2010
Library loans up 0.18% over previous year and 6.11% over past 5 years
Kevin Rudd announces major Oz innovation funding
Apple voted world’s coolest brands by Arnholt cool brands survey
Libraries move towards open catalogues
Samsung launch solar powered g-phone called the Solo
Steve Jobs claims that reading is no longer important
Libraries shift emphasis from distributing information to editing it
IBM reveals that there are now one billion transistors for every person on the planet

2011
Library users create 25% of library content
Gov survey reveals that 90% of employees work for small and medium sized firms
State funding for libraries now below that of public toilets
Survey say that 90% of 12-16 year-olds now own a mobile phone
Libraries become hyper-local news aggregators

2012
Schools pay students to run IT support within schools
Survey reveals that average person now has 120 digital friends
Library collections polarised between vocational learning and escapist fiction
Dymocks announces that 8 of the 10 best selling books in 2011 were TV related
Sales of paper, pencils and pens continue to decline
Librarians become facilitators for user generated media content

2013
Due to litigation schools announce that all lessons will be video taped
IBM announces $200 million library sponsorship deal
Library events generate more visits than loans
Libraries announce universal fee wi-fi in an attempt to compete with McDonald’s
Siemens announce ‘global nervous system’ based on wireless sensors
Singapore government completes universal free wi-fi initiative

2014
Information increasingly ranked according to reliability
Libraries introduce free to fee sliding scale of payments for information
All NSW government services now accessible through virtualgov.com.au
McDonald’s persuaded to give away snack-sized books with Happy Meals
UKs new Poet Laureate announces that all of her poems will be written in txt
Urban libraries roll out RFID on all books and other physical artefacts

2015
Libraries announce that they will no longer retain physical copies of new books
Libraries start charging for events, which become a significant new income stream
State Library creates replica of Clive James’s library to mixed reviews
Gov mandates that all library managers blog at least once a day
Survey reveals major split between urban and rural library funding in NSW
Federal gov rolls out national broadband strategy

2016
Sony launches the long awaited ‘Readman’ digital reading glasses
Mayhem as Google announces that Project Gutenberg only accessible from G-phones
Westfield launches Book Butler services in all its shopping centres
Sydney water charges customer $25 for paper bills
Librarians transition from analogue gatekeeper to digital guides
News Corp announces funding for the promotion of reading and informal learning
Government’s smart library service comes to a halt due to a lack of funding
Libraries offer evening dance classes

2017
All school lessons for years 5-12 now available as downloads
ABC introduce pay=per-view for all programming
Survey by CBA says that 90% of 18-25 year-olds have never written a cheque
Virtual book club meetings pull in 750,000 people per week across NSW
Study reveals that successful libraries are all defined by three things; what’s there, who’s there and what’s going on there

2018
NSW library network announces that visits are down 10% on 2015
The ideas Store @ Surry Hills Public Library voted Australia’s best retailer
26 libraries across NSW close due to lack of funds
Libraries become cornerstone of new cultural preservation industry
Bottom falls out of the antiques market. People no longer want ‘old’ things

2019
Libraries become favoured meeting places for teenagers and seniors
Libraries offer yoga and meditation classes
Seek.com.au announces funding for job kiosks in libraries
SMH Survey says that people spend an average of 65 days per year in virtual worlds
Information bartering and swap meets emerge
Libraries start to charge users to charge mobile devices

2020
Secure data back-up services prove an unexpected revenue generator for libraries
Blacktown library re-brands its librarians as ‘information engineers’
Paper use now down by 300% since 2009
Information mediators revealed as the most in-demand profession by BRW magazine
Survey says the average home contains 8 phones, 6 computers, 2 TVs and 12 books
Top selling book of the decade is Cerebral Whiteout by Susan Greenfield

2021
Rural libraries set up innovation spaces in conjunction with CSIRO
Libraries offer drop in technology advice and repair
45% of employees no longer have physical place of work to go to each morning
Library survey reveals that most popular services are: phone charging and toilets
Top selling book of 2021 is I want it Now by Paris Hilton

2022
Peak oil crisis and plastics shortage creates further confusion over media formats
Survey reveals that 90% of people never switch their mobiles off
Hyatt Hotels offer ‘information breaks’ to escape constant digital connectedness
Increasing polarisation between technology haves and have nots
All school examinations now digital

2023
Libraries start to charge users that use a desk for more than 3-hours.
Over-55s exempted from 3-hour rule following ‘grey protests’
Art Gallery of NSW creates digital collection and sells 50% of its physical collection
Top five selling books of 2023 are all about Climate Change

2024
Libraries shift towards the provision of recreational services
With the exception of flagship libraries buildings become increasingly dilapidated
Low funding in most libraries increases wait times to 30-mins for simple queries
MIT study says that the average person now has to remember 36 passwords
The internet is now 10,000 days old

2025
Art Gallery of NSW merges with State Library and move into single building
Libraries introduce staff selections — subjective listings of favourite information
Apple announces that its iBooks store now contains 122,430,055 titles
Facebook is now bigger than America, with a population of 456 million

2026
Libraries start selling book collections to pay energy bills
Building maintenance costs soar by 200% since 2015 due to climate change
Most popular e-book of 2026 is Slow by Penny Wong
4.8 billion people now own mobile phones

2027
Librarian that burnt books to heat the local library over winter is dismissed
Apple says its new iPhone can hold 136,000 books.

2028
Libraries widen their local influence with the introduction of information evenings
Google buys the BBC

2029
Average e-book now just 100 pages in length
Spam declared world’s #1 issue

2030
National Australia Bank offers technology loans to finance e-education requirements
Libraries start to merge with churches