2010 Trends

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Trend #8. Constant Partial Stupidity

People are now constantly distracted and find it difficult to stay focused on any one thing for more than a matter of minutes. This state of affairs is known as Constant Partial Attention (CPA), a term coined by an ex- Microsoft researcher by the name of Linda Stone.  But CPA is starting to spawn something else, which I think should be called Constant Partial Stupidity (CPS).

The idea here is that we are so busy monitoring the digital environment with digital devices that our attention is becoming fragmented. Furthermore, the explosion of digital information means that our memories are under attack because there is now just too much to remember. The result is a lack of quality thinking and an increase in avoidable mistakes.

For example, have you ever missed an appointment because you read an email too fast and didn’t see the footnote about the last minute change of venue? You probably used a mobile phone to find out where everyone was but you could have been in trouble if the battery was dead (you still haven’t backed-up your address list or printed out those photographs have you?).

Or how about your inability to remember multiple passwords, with the result that getting money out of an ATM at weekends has been turned into something resembling the national lottery? Or what about phone numbers? What is your home telephone number? Many people no longer have a clue and it’s not simply because they use a mobile telephone. This is the brave new world of too much information and not enough functioning memory.

Human attention is finite so inventing new distractions like twitter is all very well but there are consequences, such as our inability not to notice or remember simple bits of information. Doing things too fast (and having too much to do) can result in other silly things, such as sending out rushed emails (compose in haste, repent at leisure) or hitting ‘reply all’ when you really don’t want to.

In London a local council has experimented with cushioning on lampposts because pedestrians are walking into lampposts while they are texting. There are serious examples of semi-stupidity too. How about the truck driver that was looking at Google maps whilst driving on the M6 motorway — he ended up killing six people.

Links: Multi-tasking, single tasking, the attention economy, distraction, information explosion, memory, risk. Also links with the opposite trend  – i.e. never forgetting, digital immortality, spot knowledge and so on.

2010 Trends

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Trend #9 – Hunger for shared experiences.

How’s this for timing. Yesterday I wrote about fear fatigue. I thought this was really a UK trend but today there’s an article in the Sydney Morning Herald with a headline “How We Lost the Fear of Terror” by Daniel Flitton.

OK, enough of that. Trend number 9…

We are spending more time alone, either because we live/work alone or because everyday life increasingly involves a degree of automation, digitalisation and virtualisation, all of which can reduce physical human contact.

For example, there is now less need to interact with ticketing staff at airports. Once you are on onboard there is also little chance of a real conversation because you are confronted with a seat-back with a screen the moment you sit down, or because the person next to you is on the phone*

Similarly, some companies are experimenting with customer service avatars, so in the future you won’t even be able to have a real conversation with a nice man from Mumbai.  And even if you do come into contact with other people many of them do not wish to connect with you. This might be because they are in a hurry to get somewhere else or because there is a digital device, such as a mobile phone or iPod, in between you and them.

Examples of shared experiences? Live music is a very good example. We are downloading music files, movies and now books but all these can be strangely sterile experiences.Perhaps this is why live music festivals, cinema going, theatre going, book clubs and writer’s festivals are all booming.

Predictions: Expect a shift whereby people celebrate participation and the communality of experience above and beyond idiosyncratic expression. Also expect a continued boom in father/son camping trips and communal tables in fast-food joints and top-end restaurants.We might also see shops attempting (probably unsuccessfully) to ban mobile phone use in stores, especially at service counters and in check-out isles. BTW, this is a counter-trend to digitalisation, which is a much stronger trend. Do not expect this to replace digitalisation or virtualisation. It will simply sit alongside both.
Links: Presence (the opposite of telepresence)

* Use of mobile phones is now allowed on British Airways flights between London City Airport and JFK and on some Malaysia Airlines and Emirates Airlines flights

Photo credit: Jonathan Sands (I think?)

Trends 2010

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Here is the first of 10 trends for 2010+ Please note that this list of 10 does not replace previous lists. More often than not these are additions rather than replacements. BTW, this first one (and we’re counting down from 10-1) is primarily a UK trend. It’s also not mine. This is Max Kaehn’s idea but my words (thanks Max).

#10 Fear Fatigue

Fed up with being anxious or afraid? You are probably not alone. A spate of recent apocalyptic warnings about everything from total financial meltdown (another Great Depression and the end of Capitalism as we know it), swine flu (millions likely to die), the disappearance of bees (global food shortages), rogue asteroids (total planetary destruction) and deep vein thrombosis on long-haul flights (buy special socks and walk around a lot or you might die) have made some people a little bit jumpy.

On the other hand, there is only so much bad news that people can take. At some point people figure that things are so bad that they can’t possibly get any worse, or else because so many of the  so-called ‘apocalyptic’ warnings and predictions have not come true then you really can’t believe anything anyone says these days — especially nothing uttered by politicians, journalists and scientists. It’s almost a blitz mentality. Things are so gloomy that you might as well just keep calm and carry on in the hope that it’s them and not you.

However, this optimistic silver lining has a nasty dark cloud inside. If the experts are proved wrong time and time again, either due to bad information or because they err of the extreme side of caution, then people will, in all probability, ignore a very real warning when one finally comes along. Best not to worry about that possibility I guess.

Links: Global connectivity, information pandemics, culture of litigation, risk management, Precautionary Principle, flight to the physical, shift to safe savings (bonds, gilts, cash).
Opportunities: People want security, safety and control. They also want things that are simple and easy to understand.

2010 Trends – A Roadmap for the Future

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It’s finally done. My new trends and technology timeline for 2010 is now up. Please post any comments, criticisms or suggestions and I will incorporate these in the very final printed version. Please also note that it’s really a waste of time looking at this on a small screen or printing it out at less than A3 size because it’s hugely complicated. If you want giant printed colour copies just contact me.

The map has 16 lines representing everything from society & culture to news & media. There are also 5 time zones representing 2010-2050, so everything that falls outside the central zone (zone 1) is obviously a prediction.The map is published under a Creative Commons Share-A-Like Licence so you can do anything you like with it, including selling it, just so long as you say where it came from.

I have a feeling this map with get forwarded around cyberspace at great speed:.

The key mega trends on the map are:

– Ageing

– Power shift Eastwards

– Globalisation

– Localisation

– Digitalisation

– Personalisation

– Volatility

– Individualism

– Environmental change

– Sustainability

– Debt

– Urbanisation

Some of the predictions include:

– All televised sport becomes short-format

– Epidemic of new disorders caused by uncensored use of digital devices

– Turkey, Iran and Mexico become key powers

– Online communities gather offline to start physical communities

– The robot population surpasses the human population

– Brain holidays

– Communications free resorts

– People attending online funerals

– The appearance of laboratory grown meat in supermarkets

Some of the partial ruins (things that are partly destroyed) include:

– Intimacy

– Privacy

– Modesty

– Paper statements and bills

– Humility

– Optimism about the future

The link…see comments below for a click-thru version.

http://nowandnext.com/PDF/trends_and_technology_timeline_2010.pdf

London in 2010

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A big thank you to Matthew Davies for this. Some clever person has kept (and photographed) a copy of the Observer magazine from 1989, which looked at what London might look like in the year 2010. Great stuff. As Will Wiles says: ” why are blimps so seductive to futurologists?

The original article is here
http://willwiles.blogspot.com/2009/12/london-in-2010.html
And the pictures are here
London2010-01

Food Trends for 2010

Really good list of Top 20 Food Trends posted recently at Restaurant News (www.nrn.com):

1 Locally grown produce
2 Locally sourced meats and seafood
3 Sustainability
4 Bites size/mini desserts
5 Locally produced wine and beer
6 Nutritionally balanced children’s dishes
7 Half portions. Smaller portion for a smaller price
8 Farm/estate-branded ingredients
9 Gluten-free/food allergy conscious foods
10 Sustainable seafood
11 Super-fruits (acai, goji, mangosteen, purslane et al)
12 Organic produce
13 Culinary cocktails (e.g. savory, fresh ingredients)
14 Micro-distilled/artisan liquor
15 Nutrition/health
16 Simplicity/back to basis
17 Regional ethnic cuisines
18 Non-traditional fish (Arctic Char, barramundi etc)
19 New cuts of meat
20 Fruit/vegetable children’s side items

My takeaways:

– Localism is getting big (incl. sustainable)
– Health/well-being is still huge
– Why isn’t convenience/time saving on this list?

Ref: National Restaurant Association’s What’s Hot in 2010 Chef Survey (US)

2010 in Words

Asia
Abstain
Accelerate
Accountant
Acquaintance
Adjust
Authenticity
Apocalyptic
Afghanistan
Aggregation
Aggression
Acquisition
Balance
Brazil
Biomechatronics
Bio-plastic
China
Cloud
Chaos
Carbon
Chapter-11
Debt
Domestic
Delusional
Eco
Emissions
e-Book
Electric,
e-health
Food
Flood
Fatigue
Fascism
Green
Genetics
Home
Healthcare
Hybrid
Inflation
Iran
Identity
Infrastructure
Jittery
Jobs
Korea
Local
Metabolomics
Merger
Nationalism
New
Nanotubes
Nanotech
Obama
Old
Oil
Protectionism
Pastism
Pakistan
Purpose
Personalised
Quality
Receivership
Recession
Resources
Recovery
Realness
Rage
Robotics,
Right-wing
Regulation
Rogue
Screenager
Skittish
Sustainability
Shock
Skills
Saving
Simplicity
Storm
Steam-punk
Subdued
Shortage
Turnaround
Trust
Tribal
Techo-Romance
Transparency
Two-speed
U-turn
Unemployed
Vancover
Vinyl
Value
Virtual
Water
Wild
X-Gen
You
Zen
Zipcar

Scenarios for 2010+

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Here’s something that I scribbled on the back of a napkin on the plane from Hong Kong to Sydney. It’s a new set of scenarios for the economy. It’s really for the UK economy but could be adapted to the global economy.

I’m a bit stuck on a name for the last quadrant (bottom right). At the extreme it’s “Middle Class Revolution” but that’s not really it. ‘Personal Fortress’ perhaps?