‘Pay as you go’ is a well documented trend which, along with the division of some products and services into free (or cheap) and paid (or luxury) segments is transforming society. So if ‘economy’ and ‘business’ works for airlines, and ‘public’ or ‘private’ works for medicine and education, why not apply the same principle to roads? This is what’s happening all over the world with congestion charges to enter city centres and now it’s happening with roads which are being divided into free and paid sections. The idea is a mixture of social engineering and civil engineering. Fast lanes are being converted into paid lanes, which motorists can move into if they’re in a hurry or they’re just plain rich (‘Lexus lanes’ as some people describe them). The clever bit is that the paid lanes are not compulsory and pricing can be adjusted according to traffic flow or time of day. Payment is made instantly via electronic tags inside your car. Of course the idea isn’t new. Road tolls have been around since the invention of the motor car (longer in fact) but the idea is coming back into vogue because governments are no longer prepared to publicly finance infrastructure projects like roads. In the case of new roads this is fine, but the principle is also being applied to roads that have already been built using public money – so people are effectively paying twice. Nevertheless, the idea is sure to be a winner because people hate to wait (Americans now spend 46 hours a year sitting in traffic jams). The average speed during peak hours on ‘91 Express’ lanes in the US is 65mph compared to just 15-20mph in the free lanes. So by paying US $11 commuters can save as much as 90 minutes on a regular trip. On a slightly related note, GPS tracking technology is about to transform how people pay for car insurance. If an insurance company knows where you are in real time, risk can be assessed accordingly, allowing drivers to pay for insurance by the mile.
Monthly Archives: September 2006
Generational crossover
It’s someone’s 50th birthday every 8 seconds in the US, but retailers are still obsessively focussed on young people. A study by Credit Suisse First Boston, for example, found that in the US there 7,700 clothing chains selling to the teen market (with a theoretical sales of US $5.8m per store) but only 1,800 (with theoretical sales of US $19.2m per store) targeting baby boomers. As populations age more people will want to spend more time at home and they will want to make their lives as comfortable as possible. The implications of this demographic shift include everything from a boom in gardening to employing seniors (B&Q) and designing food packaging that people with old hands and poor eyesight can actually open.
Video on demand
Of all the media trends that are around at the moment one of the biggest is digital video. This is variously called video-on-demand, mobile video and Internet video. Whatever you call it, it’s changing the media landscape forever thanks in part to devices like Apple’s video iPod and tie-ups like the recently announced deal between Pixar (owned by Steve Jobs) and Disney, which could put Apple firmly in the driving seat when it comes to unlocking Disney’s digital attic. Of course there are still issues like bandwidth, but the rapid uptake of broadband will partly solve that problem. Implications? We’ll be watching a lot more ‘old’ (retro) TV and film content as the digital archives are opened up. We’ll also be watching what we want, when we want it on whatever device we want which will lead to a further decline in families sitting down to watch TV together. Families will still be watching TV but they’ll be watching different shows on different devices in different places. At some point (5 years, maybe 10?) you will be able to access every television programme and every film ever made and viewers will be producing their own content and directly influencing what other people watch.