The World in 2020 (further sources)

 

 

 

 

Further to my post yesterday showing my table of trends and technologies for the world in 2020, here are some links to some further material on 2020 trends and scenarios if anyone is interested.

Bain Consulting – growth trends to 2020

Economist Intelligence Unit/Cisco report on 2020

World Changing Blog (summary of CIA 2020 Scenarios from 2005)
BTW, the report is hard to find but I have a PDF if anyone wants one.

Frost & Sullivan (research report)

The Guardian – World in 2020 (series of short essays)

The Independent – World in 2020 (article)

Centre for European Reform – The World in 2020 (article)

Telefonica (5 minute video)

Corning (5 minute video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIighTR1zPo

World Tourism Organization (facts & forecasts)

Bloomberg/Business Week (forecasts and predictions out to 2020)

Wired magazine (article)

Trends & Technologies for the World in 2020

Here’s something to start a few arguments, which is the whole point of the exercise, of course. Briefly, it’s a table of key trends and technologies that are likely to shape the world out to 2020. I’ve used the periodic table, not because the trends are weighted in any way, but by following the basic structure of the table (i.e. the number of categories and boxes) this has forced me to edit what would otherwise be an almost endless list.

The categories themselves broadly follow S.T.E.E.P, which is widely used in scenario planning, but I’ve extended and added to this with the result that we have S.T.E.E.E.P.P.I (Society, Technology, Energy, Environment, Economy, Employment, Population, Politics and Identity). There are also two lines devoted to global risks, both high and low probability.

 

 

 

 

And, as usual, there are a few jokes so that people don’t take this too seriously. Lol, Omg. The link here is to a high resolution PDF suitable for printing.  World .in 2020_

Can’t write

I don’t know if it’s the cold office, the dark office, the office that moves up and down (the boat in London) or something else, but I can’t seem to write anything interesting at the moment. For some reason this brings me on to George Orwell’s Six Rules for Writing. Personally, I’d add that if you are blocked go out and see something (someone?) different. Generally do something else until the urge returns. Or visit your muse. The six rules:

1. Never use a metaphor, simile, or other figure of speech which you are used to seeing in print.

2. Never use a long word where a short one will do.

3. If it is possible to cut a word out, always cut it out.

4. Never use the passive where you can use the active.

5. Never use a foreign phrase, a scientific word, or a jargon word if you can think of an everyday English equivalent.

6. Break any of these rules sooner than say anything outright barbarous.

Dark Solar

I seem to remember making up something called ‘Night Solar’ in one of my recent books.Turns out he idea isn’t quite as mad as it was intended to be. The cover of New Scientist (26 January) is all about Dark Solar, which appears to be much the same thing.

More Bad Language

A report by the National Organisation of University Art Schools in Australia says that schools should be teaching ‘visuacy’. The National Association for the Visual Arts (NAVA) is similarly focusing on the “outcome” of visuacy being a stand-alone subject for years K-10 and the National Review of Visual Education says visuacy should be given the same prominence as literacy and numeracy.

So what is this strange new skill that will be so fundamental to students in the 21st Century? Judging by the fact that the report cites the example of deconstructing an advertisement for Elle Macpherson’s kickers to establish “conditions of value and meaning” alongside an examination of Picasso’s Guernica, visuacy appears to mean visual literacy plus post-modernism minus a sense of humour.

Doubtless members of the Visual Education Roundtable (“a coalition of key stakeholders to be an advisory body to CMC and MCEETYA”) will paint me as a pedantic philistine, but I can live with that. Newspeak like this is a mutant life form from outer space (i.e. certain parts of Canberra, Westminster and Washington) and needs to be killed off before it infects the whole planet.

To put the record straight I’m all in favour of visual literacy. So is my mum, who used to be an art teacher. Our brave new world is saturated with images and it’s going to get much worse in the future. Everything from walls and tabletops to cereal packets and clothing will soon have the potential to become screens displaying the almost infinite amount of information and entertainment created by you, me and everyone else.

Thus we will be drowning in digital dross and there will be a real need to filter this material, either by visualising information or by understanding the difference between stylish eye candy and items of real substance.

But according to post-modernist academics with a love of Jerry built jargon all of this imagery is of equal value. A video by Kylie is as meaningful as a painting Van Gogh. We should be so lucky. My point here is not a discussion about postmodernism. What’s getting my goat is simply the use of bad language, especially in schools. Yes we live in a visually cluttered culture, but that doesn’t mean that words don’t matter.

Not Thinking

This is a classic. I was on my way to an event in London this morning when I found myself on an escalator behind a woman in her mid-forties. She was wearing a perfume, which reminded me of someone that I last saw about fifteen years ago. So, without thinking about it, I leaned forward and sniffed. Unfortunately, it was quite a loud sniff, which may or may not have been accompanied by an even larger sigh. The woman quickly turned around and loudly asked: “What are you doing?”

My response was honest, although possibly not that well thought out. I simply responded: “I was sniffing you.” Never, in the history of transport have so many people given any individual quite so much room quite so fast. In the future I will sniff quietly. BTW, that’s not her in the picture.

Thinking…

Been having lunch with a couple of the the scenarios team at Shell. Interesting discussion, amongst other things about whether demand for energy could fall in the future due to dematerialization (links with a previous blog post about the story I saw in the US about electricity demand being essentially static, which seems counter-intuitive). Anyway, Shell’s new set of scenarios will be out quite soon.

The image is of a park bench on the South Bank. I was a bit early for lunch so spent 15-minutes wandering around and looking at stuff.

Scenarios for the future of education

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’m speaking at something called BETT in London next week. This is how the organisers describe the event:

“Bett is a global community where individuals discover technology for education and lifelong learning. Bett embraces innovative solutions that inspire, in order to shape and improve the way people learn from classroom to boardroom. In times where modern learning environments are becoming more mobile and ‘learning anywhere’ is more of a possibility, Bett gives visitors the opportunity to explore how technology can power learning, raise attainment and increase efficiency.” Ummm. OK.

Anyway, here’s a very quick scenario matrix for the future of education. If they don’t throw me out I’ll show it One driver is the level to which computers, other mobile devices, cloud storage, content creation, copyright and formats generally are well managed, ordered and predictable. The other driver is based on whether or not value is given to physical spaces and objects (schools especially) and to the physical presence of teachers and students.