I’ve had a terrible couple of days doing nothing whatsoever of apparent value. But today inspiration stuck and I suddenly thought of a great line to finish off one of the two books I’m finishing of. It’s a spin on the old William Gibson classic.
The future is already here, but it’s unclear what we’ll decide to do with it.
Nice review of my book Future Minds hit my inbox this morning. I like that I’m described as “….a humanist rather than a techie and a pragmatist rather than a dogmatic zealot.”
Blog review here if anyone is interested.The screen grab above is only a small part of it.
BTW, we’ve not had a quote for a while so here’s a good one.
“If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run — and often in the short one — the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.” – Arthur C. Clarke
What will life be like in the year 2020? It’s sounds a long way off but it’s not, so it should be fairly easy to make a series of educated guesses. One of the largest discernable differences could be climate. Over the past 100 years atmospheric temperatures have risen by 0.6 degrees centigrade globally. Over the next 8-12 years they can be expected to rise by a similar amount. So by 2020 it might be possible to sail right across the North Pole. Water from melting ice caps will disperse so many of the planet’s lowest-lying areas will disappear under water. So if you want to see polar bears – or visit the Great Barrier reef which will be severely damaged by rising sea temperatures – do it sooner rather than later.
On the medical front things are looking much healthier. Death rates from common cancers will have fallen, possibly by as much as 25%, and drug combinations and genetically-based treatments will treat specific tumours. Home-based robots will be commonplace, although it is doubtful whether they will become ‘pets’ as some experts are predicting. Moreover, developments in nanotechnology will displace robots in many areas. The idea of having robotic butlers to help clean up the kitchen won’t come to fruition because many of the jobs will be done by nanoparticles instead. Surfaces like kitchen bench-tops, for example, will be self-cleaning. We will also see computerised clothing enter mainstream usage with our clothes warning us if there is a biohazard nearby or perhaps telephone the nearest doctor if you fall ill or injure yourself.
Then there’s energy. It’s unlikely that many of us will be driving around in fuel-cell powered cars by 2020 and hydrogen power will still be a way off but it does look pretty certain that we will rely on more diverse sources of power. These will include solar (far more important), wind, water and tidal power generation and we’ll also see a major switch to nuclear power (possibly thorium-based power stations using spent nuclear waste). Finally there’s some bad news. Historically there have been five mass extinction periods in the earth’s history and we are about to enter a sixth. Climate change, together with urbanisation and intensive agriculture will continue to destroy a great number of species. How many? No one is saying exactly but it’s likely to at least a thousand times the natural rate.
That was interesting. Just been in Switzerland, which turns out to be my 20th country in 18 months. Full of Russians! Lots of private bank ads and watch ads too (are the three things connected?). Trains a delight. Exchange rate less so.
Still bemused by the lack of material on 2012 trends. I think it’s because people are more worried by the next 12 weeks rather than the next 12 months. If I find anything interesting I’ll be sure to post it. In the meantime working like mad to finish a new book (details to come).
I’ve been looking at various food timelines and for some reason this little gem appeared on one of them. Is it true I wonder?
In 1439, in an effort to stop the spread of disease, kissing was banned in England.
This is my last post for a little while due to the holidays. Some people may like to know that issue number 30 of my What’s Next trends report has just gone live at nowandnext.com. I’ll be back with a heaps of 2012 trends next month.
31 Australians have died since 1996 by watering a Christmas
tree when the lights were plugged on.
Ref: Australian Bureau of Statistics
So…
Not much going on today. I should be traveling to Italy, but after the chaos last year I thought that wise men might stay at home. Given that it’s just started to snow this may yet prove to be a good move.
Two things in the newspapers caught my eye today. First is a comment from Pedro Nuno Santos, VP of the Socialist Party in Portugal. He says that Portuguese debt could be used as a weapon against the rest of Europe, Germany and France in particular. Portugal could simply refuse to pay, thereby created a ‘nuclear’ default and financial meltdown.
As someone once said, I forget who, if I owe someone $100 I have a problem. If I owe someone $1 billion, they have a problem. So the large amount of US debt held by China is China’s problem?
Not quite sure how this links, but I would not be at all surprised if we have a military government in at least one European country (Greece?) by the end of next year. Actually, I think the link is debt to austerity to rage to physical actions to crackdowns to supposed stability.
The second thing was much milder. An obituary for George Whitman, who ran Shakespeare and Co, the Parisian bookshop. I loved the comment about his bookshop from Sylia Beach that the shop was a : “Rag -and-bone- shop of the heart.”
The week-long desert festival known as Burning Man might seem like an odd place for Silicon Valley types and assorted artists and free-spirits to unwind, especially since cell-phones won’t work, the internet is more or less unavailable (sometimes due to dust storms) and business is outlawed.
Then again, maybe it all makes perfect sense. After all, if you work alone the idea of physically mingling with 50,000 people is quite attractive. If you look at a screen all day then building giants sculptures (and often setting fire to them) does have a kind of primal attraction.
And if you work in a highly orchestrated corporation then the idea of a week long ‘out of office’ jam session is quite contagious.
Most of all I suspect that the real reason people enjoy this festival is a mixture of community and physical accomplishment overlayed with a joyous lack of technology and unwanted digital interruption.
Or is there another explanation?
I seem to remember reading once that the band Talking Heads took their name from a movie, a book or perhaps a US government scenario where a highly secret group got together and those individuals that couldn’t make it in person were ‘represented’ by animated heads (i.e. a person’s voice was replicated via a 3-D machine in the form of a human head).
I’ve tried to find a reference to this but I have failed.
Does this ring a bell with anyone? David Byrne – are you out there?
😉