Almost there…

This is almost it. The final version has a few changes (no Steve Jobs with the iBook of Jobs). Geddit? No. Neither did anyone else, which is why it’s gone. There’s also a mistake on the final version attached to which is a great story (which is why I left it in). I’m just waiting on a hyper-link for the final version and I’ll put it up and tell all.

Busy today talking with some people (The Food People in fact) about a joint food trends map and doing an interview on the future of work for the Wall Street Journal.

Blind trust in technology

I was watching the television a few days ago and there was a story about a man that had taken a year off work and was driving his whole family across Africa in a Toyota Land Cruiser. The vehicle had everything for what promised to be a rough and demanding journey. One morning they set out very early to visit some sand dunes in Namibia and he rolled the vehicle over on a stretch of totally deserted road. There were no other vehicles around.

How did the crash happen? It was because he was watching the screen of his GPS rather than looking out at the road ahead. The GPS said it was a straight road and everything looked safe – only it wasn’t. The was a sharp bend he didn’t see coming.Back in May of this year a 45-year-old German man did something similar. His blind faith in his GPS sent him onto the wrong end of an Autobahn off-ramp. An 11-year-old boy was slightly injured in the resulting collision.

Smart as these devices undoubtedly are I slightly worry about where we will all end up if we totally trust technology in this manner. Is not a degree of caution sensible? Should we not use such intelligent devices in combination with human intelligence and not as a replacement?

BTW, book update. It’s printed. It’s on it’s way to bookshops in the UK, US/Canada, and Australia/New Zealand and is currently being translated in South Korea and Japan. Launch is mid-October.

Digital disconnection

I’ve just been watching How to disconnect from your online life on BBC World News America (15 September). Some pretty obvious stuff but there’s an interview with Clay Shirky, author of Cognitive Surplus, which I feel I must comment on.

I totally 100% agree that the cost of making something public used to be expensive. Now it’s not. It might as well be free if you discount the time spent creating the content (which, perhaps, we shouldn’t). But I totally disagree that the cost of keeping something private is now expensive. How? All you have to do is do nothing. Don’t take part in the first place. OK, once you’ve made something public it is now very expensive indeed (and I’d say almost impossible) to make it private again but that’s surely another point? 

What I do think has happened is that we have exchanged privacy for ego in many instances.

Max, what do you think?

New map (not mine)

Hello again. First of all I think I should apologise to members of the Outdoor Swimming Society (last post). I’m sure they are all lovely people and even I would agree that going for a dip (even in freezing cold and somewhat suspect British water) is much better than playing on an X-Box.

Anyway, here’s a new map from Tim O’Reilly via Ross Dawson. I can’t share my new map with you quite yet but it makes for an interesting counter-point.

More at http://map.web2summit.com/

Is ‘FaceTime’ a good idea?

I was sitting on a train yesterday, reading a newspaper, when I noticed an advertisement for FaceTime video calling on the new iPhone 4. The idea of the videophone has been around for as long as I can remember, for at least thirty years, and here it finally is.  Fantastic. But I foresee a potential problem.

If you add video to audio you are adding another level of communication. Another layer cognitive processing you might argue. Thus, whilst it is wonderful to see the person you are talking to on the other end of the phone, surely the depth of our listening or understanding will suffer?

This reminds me slightly of a project I worked on alongside Mckinsey & Company about ten years ago. It was for United News & Media as they were then called (a FTSE 100 company). The brief was working out what to do with Express Group Newspapers, which they owned at the time. 

To cut a long story short, I asked someone called Theodore Zeldin if he’d like to get involved, not least because he knew the editor and I was convinced that there was a connection between newspapers and conversation, which was (and still is) a big theme of his.  However, Theodore was really busy and couldn’t make it up to London to share with us his thinking. So he telephoned into a meeting instead. And this is where it gets good.

Most big meetings involve written material or some kind of a visual presentation such as Power Point – all of which are another level of distraction. Because Theodore couldn’t make it (and because the iPhone 4 had yet to be invented) we were all forced to listen very carefully (he’s softly spoken too) to his voice on the telephone. I can remember almost every word he said to this day.

If you are wondering what exactly he said I’m not going to tell you but I can share with you the fact that he more or less invented the idea of user generated content years before anyone like OhMyNews came up with the same idea.

Too much filtering

Professor Michael Abramson at Monash University in Australia has found that: “repeated predictive texting is likely to be training young people to act fast without thinking”. Furthermore, we are starting to shy away from tasks that take too long, things with uncertain benefits, and processes that do not offer immediate results.

This, I believe, is a very slippery slope. I suspect that accidental encounters with information and ideas will become less common in the future because we will use technology to filter out individuals or screen out experiences that do not fit with pre-set patterns or opt-in requests. As a result, reality may become almost invisible to many individuals. We will be highly connected to the world around us but most of this connection will be through digital filters and virtual channels. Many subtle physical and emotional signals could be minimised or even lost. Fleeting eye contact with a stranger on a train will become a more remote possibility because we will exist in our own behavioural bubbles, our eyes and ears set on divert to various sensory and escapist pleasures (see “iPod oblivion” on wordspy.com).

It will be a world that is highly conformist in terms of structure and highly personalised in terms of experience. I believe our minds will become muddled and muddy as a result. And if we are not pre-filtering or personalising media, we will have it done for us. The news cycle is accelerating and information is already delivered in snack-sized packages that often ignore or misrepresent broad context and understanding.

This point is raised by the Pulitzer prize-winning writer Charles Feldman in his book No Time To Think. Feldman speculates that if our current 24-hour news cycle had been applied to the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, there would have been tremendous pressure to act immediately – and this could have resulted in Armageddon.

We will almost never be alone either. Machines will anticipate what we want based on previous behaviour or they will predict what we need, based on the patterns hidden in vast trails of digital data that we, knowingly or unknowingly, leave behind us.

Digital & electronic v analogue & mechanical

Interesting review of The Shallow by Nicholas Carr in last Saturday’s Guardian (piece by Steven Poole). Couple of things he’s dead right about. First, too many essays are being turned into books and the expansion isn’t always justified.

The whole point of an essay is “pithy provocation.” A book is something different. He’s also on the money with an overlooked thought that (in his words) “All to rarely do defenders of books (and, for that matter, newspapers) ask themselves the uncomfortable question: might it be that people are reading fewer of the products not because people are becoming more stupid but because many of the products are not actually very good.”

He isn’t fond of The Shallows (I liked it, although I’d agree that the original essay covered most of the bases) but he does say good things about another book that I haven’t read yet –  Born Digital: Understanding the first generation of digital natives by John Palfrey and Urs Gasser. Basically it boils down to a digital optimistic versus an analogue pessimist.

The Lost Art of Play

A UK report looking at how parents play with their children has found that 21% of parents have forgotten how to play with their kids. The survey of 2,000 parents and 2,000 children conducted by Prof. Tanya Byron, a psychologist and child therapist, also found that childhood games are under threat from parental overwork and an emerging generation gap.

Almost 1 in 3 parents now play computer games with their kids, but 9 in 10 kids would prefer to play alone. Despite this, 7 out of 10 kids would rather play with their parents outside or engage in traditional games with their family.

One especially worrying finding to my mind is that the ‘experts’ feel that parents now need to be given official advice and direction (from TV celebrities and ‘Childhood Tzars’ I assume) about how to play with their own kids.

My digital diet

Yesterday I found that having spent several hours going through a mountain of recent emails I still had almost 3,000 unread. They all dated prior to July 15, so I decided to do something naughty. I hit the Apple A command and deleted all of them, sight unseen. I can’t tell you how good this felt. I don’t know quite what was in there, although I’d guess about 30% was spam, 50% was things I’d opted into and 20% I have no idea. It’s possible that there was something important in there, but I figured if there was it would resurface sooner or later.

Next I’m getting rid of a load of RSS feeds and Google alerts, most of which seem to be compounding the problem of too much information rather than helping to solve it. Anyway, what was I thinking when I set up an alert for “Indian statistics”?

My overall aim here is to consume less digital media and to chew things over properly. This should leave more room for a few much bigger helpings of the things that I find especially tasty.

Stat of the day. In 2008, people in the US people consumed three times as much information as they did in 1960. Cerebral obesity? Perhaps not.