Zuckerberg’s Law

The amount of personal information people are prepared to reveal about themselves – in return for commercial gain or social status – will double every eighteen months.

Just made that up based upon Mark Zuckerberg’s comment that every year people are sharing twice as much information as the previous year.

The digitalisation of culture

You’ve no doubt heard of Google Street View. How about the Google Art Project? Google is working with 17 of the world’s leading art galleries and museums to digitalise many of the world’s greatest art masterpieces.

So what’s not to like? You can wander down the virtual corridors of the National Gallery in London, MoMA in New York or the Hermitage in St Petersburg and gawp at anything that tickles your fancy. There are no queues and you can zoom in on any detail at the click of a mouse. And it’s free.

However, the project raises some important questions. First, is viewing art online a decent substitute for looking at art in a physical gallery and will the virtual experience ever be the same – or better – than the real thing? At the moment the answer is no. Looking at an image on a screen, even a very large screen, is no substitute for standing directly in front of the actual object. No doubt the technology will improve over time, but there is still no escaping the fact that the object is more than its image.

In real life a painting or work of art inhabits physical space and this somehow connects to us as physical beings, especially when we are looking at something in the presence of other human beings. The fact that the environments in which these objects are usually displayed are themselves beautiful cannot be discounted either. And then there’s the argument that scarcity creates value in the sense that museum and art gallery visitors have often travelled a great distance to see these objects and the effort is itself part of the experience.

Viewing digital art is therefore reductive, whereas viewing physical art is expansive. There is the point, articulated by Nicholas Serota from the Tate Gallery (a participating gallery), that digital visitors might connect in ways that are not possible in real galleries, but if this simply means the exchange of email chatter then I don’t think this amounts to a hill of beans. I suppose there’s also the argument that says you can look at a Rembrandt in bed at 3.00am, to which there is almost no answer. In theory such digital exposure should act as an advertisement for the museums and galleries supporting the project.

Let’s hope so. If cost and convenience turns out to be more important than emotion they may end up putting themselves out of business – forever.

Information anxiety

Feeling anxious today? The reason could be a surfeit of information and the long-term consequences could include critical errors. A study conducted by Angela Dimoka, director of the Center for Neural Decision Making at Temple University (US) has found that as information flow is increased, so too is activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region of the rain associated with decision making. Sounds good, but is it? As the flow of information is increased further, activity in this region suddenly falls off.

Why could this be so?

The reason is that part of the brain has essentially left the building. When incoming information reaches a certain point the brain protects itself by shutting down certain of its functions. The result is that decision-making is impaired. Other consequences include a tendency for anxiety and stress levels to soar and for people to abstain from making any kind of decision at all. Even worse is the impact on creative thinking, which research suggests requires periods of incubation and reflection to function well.

During the recent BP disaster, Coastguard Admiral Thad Allen, who was the incident commander at the time, received between 300 and 400 pages of emails, texts and reports every day during the oil rig blow out. Nobody is making a direct connection between this data deluge and subsequent actions but the possibility certainly exists.

The takeaway here is that Dimoka’s research suggests that being exposed to too much information is changing how we think and we should think carefully about restricting the flow of incoming (and outgoing) information and also pre-pan periods of quiet down time and reflection.

Free vs. paid

Two ideas.  The first, from Esther Dyson, is that perhaps a tiny micro-payment should be attached to emails (paid for by the sender). This would get rid of spam but might also reduce the amount of unnecessary cc’ing that goes on.

Second idea, from Jaron Lanier, is that you should pay to search. What effect would this have I wonder? Oh, one other thought (can’t remember who from) is whether or not the idea of ‘free’ is concentrating wealth in the hands of a few individuals and organisations.

Why getting staff to do nothing can be good business

Here I am again, this time on Qantas QF31 from Singapore to London listening to Jeff Buckley (Grace) whilst looking out of the window at a marmalade sunset disappearing beneath a froth of white cloud.

My information purging experiment has been interesting. I have not looked at a newspaper for 3 weeks and my television viewing and internet use has been close to zero over the same period. As a result my data deluge has evaporated and my thinking about various issues has shifted.

I have suddenly had more time. I have become less distracted, more relaxed and more reflective. I am also more alert to people within my immediate vicinity and I seem to have become a magnet for serendipitous encounters. In short, interesting information and ideas have found me without me deliberately searching for them.

If you speak to management consultants they will use words like granularity to illustrate the importance of detail. This might be a good idea if your ambition is to fine tune a well oiled machine operating in a stable environment, but there is the danger of getting lost in detail and my recent experience would seem to suggest that what we might need is much more of the opposite, especially if your aim to build new machines to operate in unexplored and uncertain terrain.

What we need to do is focus more of the big picture, those tectonic plates that lie beneath our feet, but which have become largely invisible due to our fixation with daily minutiae. For example, in my view the media has become too obsessed with immediacy and ‘news’ over careful analysis. There is literally no time to think, or to create the conditions in which people will be forced to think, when we are plugged into live news feeds, status updates, friendship requests and Google alerts 24/7.

One of my serendipitous conversations last week was with someone in Sydney who observed that holidays were once places where people switched off and relaxed. This in turn enabled people to return to work refreshed. However, what seems to have occurred recently is that people are being forced to use their holidays to catch-up with work and to do the kind of deep thinking that is increasingly impossible at work. As a result people have next to no down time. They are tired all the time because they never switch off or disconnect and this is impacting not only the quality of their thinking and decision-making but also their relationships.

So what’s the solution? In my case a mixture of control, alt and delete.
I am going to get rid of various alerts, subscriptions and favourites and focus on a few select sources, most of which will be on paper in order to slow things down a little.  I am also going to continue with my policy of being unavailable at certain times and of frequenting certain places where mobile communication is either not allowed or is blocked. Some people will call me a Luddite for doing this, but at least they won’t be able to call me up to tell me in person.

As for organizations, I think that they will eventually see the dangers inherent in too much busyness, especially Too Much Information and Too Much Connectivity. They will slowly see the importance of sometimes doing absolutely nothing and it will dawn on them that policies will need to be developed to either limit the amount of work that employees are allowed to take home or mandate a certain amount of vacation time.

Looking out of more windows might help too.

Alone Together

I can resist everything except temptation. And books. I have a load of books I’m supposed to be reading (the Future of the Internet by Jonathan Zittrain, An Optimists Tour of the Future by Mark Stevenson, Your Flying Car Awaits by Paul Milo and Books V. Cigarettes by George Orwell). However, I have a funny feeling that Alone Together by Sherry Turkle is going to be wonderful. I’ll let you know…

How many friends are to many friends?

It was interesting to note that the word of 2009 was ‘Unfriending.’

Are we finally waking up to the fact that when it comes to friendship it’s quality not quantity that counts? My friend Matt recently sent me a note about something called Dunbar’s number. This is a theoretical cognitive limit to the number of friends that one can realistically have. How large is this number? I was rather surprised to find out that it’s somewhere between 100 and 230, with 150 being a commonly agreed figure.

This seems too high to me, although the average number of confirmed friends people have on Facebook is 120, while a few years ago the average number of contacts (not friends) on linkedin was 60.

Clearly there is a big difference between digital and physical friends, although I’d be really interested to know what the crossover is. What percentage of these 120 friends do Facebook users see in person and how often? It would also be interesting to research the definition of ‘friend’. Interestingly, a University of Arizona study recently found that 25% of Americans have no really close friends at all (friend being defined here as someone that you can talk to about your deepest hopes and fears).

Ref: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar%27s_number

Laptops, sandwiches, DIY skills & romantic fiction

A driver in the UK was recently pulled over by police for using a mobile phone and a laptop whilst driving. Police also suspected that the driver might have been eating a sandwich at the same time. Meanwhile, a report in the UK says that DIY skills could be “extinct” by the year 2048 because home maintenance skills are no longer being passed down between generations. In the 1970s 71% of men learnt DIY skills from their dads, now it’s 44%.

Something more serious? OK, I’d predict that romantic novels (i.e. Mills & Boon et al) are going to boom. Why? First, because in times of doom & gloom people need some escapist pleasure with a happy ending. Second, bodice-ripping romance novels are perfect for e-formats. They are quick snacks that do not require deep thinking and the fact that book covers are hidden from view on an e-reader removes the public embarrassment factor. Whether this means that e-readers will encourage authors to write material that’s more pornographic is an interesting question perhaps.

Surveillance society

This is brilliant. There are now 32 CCTV cameras within 200 yards of the building in which George Orwell wrote “1984.” * But even if we remove these fixed cameras  there’s still the fact that 4 billion people are roaming the planet with mobile phones, most of them equipped with cameras. In other words, while Orwell got the constant surveillance part right, he missed the fact that it would be the individuals themselves that ended up being the cameras. Enter the brave new world of crowdsensing…

* Source: Sam Palmisano, CEO of IBM.