Monthly Archives: November 2012

The Bifurcation of Bling

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Have you noticed how ‘Bling’ is booming in developing countries such as Russia and China whilst at the same time ideas such as frugality and sustainability are taking hold in other parts of the world? Well apart from the economic situations being different, another reason could be that consumption patterns change significantly as prosperity develops.

A few years ago two economists called Kerwin Kofi Charles and Erik Hurst at the University of Chicago found that, all other things being equal, African Americans tended to spend more of their income on cars, clothes and jewellery. Another study has put a figure against this. Typically, an African American family will spend 25% more on cars, jewellery, clothing and personal care compared to a white counterpart, with the difference being made up by less expenditure on education.

This isn’t just a lazy racial stereotyping either. Looking at different countries similar patterns emerge with lower income groups spending lavishly on luxury goods. So what’s the explanation? According to the economists what’s going on is that poorer people spend on luxury goods to prove to others in their immediate peer group that they are not poor. Hence what a gold Rolex says is not “I’m rich” but rather “I came from a poor background and did well”.

As individuals (and nations) get richer this spending shifts from ostentatious products to more discrete services and experiences. A shift also occurs towards spending on goods that are externally directed (cars and clothes for instance) to goods that are less visible to the outside world. In other words countries, like people, want to show off how wealthy they are but eventually this need wears off.

This finding obviously has significant implications for luxury goods companies although one suspects that they know this already. As for what’s next, expect time and space to become the ultimate luxuries along with goods and services that are only available to a limited number of people that fulfil certain non-financial criteria.

How we die

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So here I am at 7.10 pm (I know, get off the computer) wondering what the heck to say today when an email from Bradley pops up. Consider it stolen I say. Bottom line seems to be to relax, watch what you eat and walk around a bit (“eat, a bit, mostly plants”). Interesting the difference between what we think could kill us (strangers, terrorists, planes, sharks, savage foxes) and what actually does.

Oh, btw, it’s from the Guardian.

Does Where You Think Change What You Think?

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I’m doing a Pro-Bono (Edward Pro-Bono – get it?) workshop with the Association of Senior Children’s and Education Librarians up near Derby in the UK. Great bunch of people and an interesting discussion last night about children (under sixteen essentially) not really embracing tablets and e-books to quite the extent that some people, especially the media, would make us believe. Even at 17-18 the preference still seems to be for paper. I think this will change, but the discussion did highlight a number of practical issues relating to screens versus paper.

Anyway, the room the workshop is being held in is basement-like and not especially inspiring. That’s not quite fair. It’s fine and far better than some I’ve experienced. Contrast this with where I was 2 days ago – Vevey in Switzerland – where the view from almost every room was of the Swiss Alps and Lake Geneva. So my question for the day is this….do physical spaces – including views – change how you think and if so how and why?

 

Future Vision: Book launch in Sydney

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Just in case you are in Sydney and would like to attend the launch of Future Vision it’s happening at UTS Business School. Details and link are below. I am in London I’m afraid and will not be attending. However, my co-author, Oliver Freeman, will be there and, I’m sure, say a few words.

Date: Wednesday 28th November
Time: 6pm-8pm
Venue: UTS Aerial Function Centre, 7/235 Jones Street,  Sydney, NSW
Cost: Free, but places are limited and RSVP essential
RSVP: Please register below by Friday 23th November

http://datasearch.uts.edu.au/business/news-events/event-detail.cfm?ItemId=33198

The death of handwriting?

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I’ve just been running futures workshop in Germany and one discovery is that people are losing the ability to write by hand. I’m not talking about kids either – rather professional 40-somethings and 50-somethings. You think I’m joking? The material that was written was almost unreadable. This chimes with my own experience whereby writing more than 3 sheets of A4 by hand causes noticeable aches in my hand.

So do I add handwriting to the extinction timeline?

Strategic shocks: 10 game changers for 2040.

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More free stuff! One of the ideas that my co-author Oliver had for the book (Future Vision) was to end with a series of strategic shocks. This was actually a book idea I had way back – ‘5 Ideas to Turn the World Upside Down’, but it works quite well in condensed (or is that expanded?) form here I think. Here are 3 of the 10…

The Second American Civil War
Don’t say we weren’t warned! Bruce (The Boss) Springsteen’s ‘Wrecking Ball’ anthem ‘we take care of our own’ and the ‘Occupy Wall Street’ movement hinted at what was coming. The nascent failure of US capitalism to deliver the American Dream has created the great divide. In the blue corner, the tea-party traditionalists and the do-what-is-good-for-me democrats and in the red corner, everyone else who have been persistently marginalized and exploited to pay for the extraordinary US global debt and the failure of ‘small’ government to protect its citizens against ‘natural’ phenomena like hurricanes, flooding, bird ‘flu and the hell-bent erosion of the country’s natural assets leads to what is effectively a ‘Balkanization’ of the US.

Bird ‘flu pandemic kills 500m worldwide
It started innocuously enough. Well, not really as nobody had been inoculated against this strain of bird ‘flu. We learned later that the fatal construct was an illegal cock-fight in the Canary Islands when of all places where local canaries were being pitched against saffron finches from the Amazon. One of the bird owners became contaminated after receiving scratches from both species. And the incubation period; well it was a lightning 48 hours. Of course, all of this needed something else. Unfortunately the owner was a big rock and roll fan and hopped on a plane immediately after the fight to join 100,000 young kids at Shay Stadium where an ageing Lady Gaga was performing on her ‘Really Ga-ga’ tour. The rest, as they say, is history.

The moon becomes a colony of China
This is a reprise of the moon landings of almost 80 years ago. Space Race 2 has been between Russia and China and burst into life when the Russian Space agency, Roskosmos, announced a manned mission to the Moon in 2035. The US had long given away any interest in Moon landings but it was the Chinese through their Agency – the CNSA – who were the challengers. Their Long March programme was more than a wish to lead the world in the science of manned space travel; it was also a push to lead the world in extra-terrestrial colonization.

Peak oil and peak everything makes the search for new sources of raw materials – and indeed new materials – a critical requirement. Get in first and the cosmos is your oyster.
On 1 April 2040 Zai Zigzag in Shenzhou 21 blasted off from Jiuquan Space Launch Center in Inner Mongolia with his crew of 11 and just 7 hours and 24 minutes later, the five yellow stars on the Chinese national flag were fluttering in the moon breeze at the top of Mons Huygens. The earth’s satellite was now a colony of the Chinese.

FutureVision

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Judging by the recent jump in subscribers to the blog some of you seem to like free bits of my new book so here’s a tiny bit more – an overview of the 4 scenarios upon which the book is based. The visual, by the way, is a new map to go with the book (A timeline history of the world 1970-2040). More on the map very soon.

Scenario 1 – Imagine
This is a world where people are fully aware of the threats to the future such as climate concerns, but have an unshakeable belief in the power of science, technology and free markets to make life better from one generation to the next. It is a mind-blowing new world of technical challenges and radical inventiveness and re-engineering where everything is connected to everything else.

A fast sci-fi world of genetic manipulation, avatar assistants, virtual buildings, robotic soldiers, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, moon hotels, nanotechnology and geo-engineering, all ultimately driven by and reliant on free market capitalism. Clean technology is booming, especially nano-solar, fusion power is coming online and food and water shortages have both been addressed by the smart use of technology. Automation means that everyday life is accelerating while digitalisation, virtualisation, miniaturisation and ubiquitous connectivity mean that whole industries are being turned upside down and people are starting to question what reality really is. Fundamentally it is a world driven by human imagination and inventiveness.

Overall, the speed and depth of change is quite breathtaking. The Internet, for example, looks nothing like it did in 2012. This exponential change makes some individuals, especially older people – of which there are now so many – rather anxious, particularly when systemic risks and cascading failures emerge. But overall life is good, although in most instances it’s no longer life as we would know it today.

Scenario 2 – Please, Please Me
This in many ways is the familiar world that we had become so used to during the Long Boom (1991 – 2007) prior to the global events of 2008. It is a world of economic growth, free markets, individualism, consumerism, selfishness and self-indulgence where people work harder and longer and where greed and status remain key – and unapologetic – drivers of much human activity. It is a world of money where successful people, especially celebrities, are envied and copied by followers worldwide. It is a world of luxury, displacement and detachment too – for those that can afford it. The past is increasingly irrelevant in this world. Which celebrates newness and novelty and delights in planned obsolescence, over supply and over consumption.

One significant development is the dominance of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) and N11 (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, and Vietnam) economies, especially the emergence of an endless stream of cutting edge technology companies from these markets.

In short this is a world that’s all about me, myself and I. A narrowly focused narcissistic world where it’s everyone for themselves and to hell with the consequences for everyone else. It is a world fundamentally driven by greed that, some might argue, has lost its way by confusing rapid movement with meaningful progress.

Scenario 3 – Helter Skelter
This is a world where a series of unexpected events create a general feeling of fear and fragility. The impact of climate change, the implosion of global financial systems and institutions, cyber crime, soaring food costs, high taxation and the ever-growing disparity between rich and poor mean that most people turn their backs on the notion of a single global economy. A few people with money remain relatively engaged in the global information economy, yet live in gated communities or areas with private security. Those with much less, especially those with no job, no money and no prospects are angry. They feel betrayed by the promise of globalisation and withdraw both physically and emotionally. The promise of free markets and democracy fade and people all over the world rediscover an angry appetite for parochialism, protectionism and regulation; concepts they themselves describe as a healthy self sufficiency.

It is a world running on empty where global politics drifts rightwards, nationalism and tribalism re-emerge and globalisation and localism are uneasy bedfellows. Ultimately it is a world driven by fear.

Scenario 4 – Dear Prudence
In this future people are alarmed about the health of the planet and especially the pervasive influence of materialism and individualism upon their lives and have therefore decided to take personal responsibility and do something about it. This is a world of sustainability and switching things off, of buying less stuff and seeking to reconnect locally with the simpler pleasures of life. It is a world where many things go backwards in a sense and one where ethics, values and reputation really count. Overall, most people are surprisingly happy – a “dark euphoria” Bruce Sterling once called it. This is partly because peoples’ lives have become more balanced and partly because there is a strong sense of common purpose. “Altogether now”, “less is more” and “You can help everyone, everyone can help you” are popular slogans. It is a pessimistic world, yet one that retains a degree of hope.

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BTW, the book is out in Australia as an e-book and paper version but the p-version is almost impossible to get in other countries at the moment. It is coming out in China and the UK soon. If you really want to buy a paper version get in touch with myself, Oliver Freeman in Sydney (via Futures House.com)  or Scribe Publications in Melbourne.

Link to the e-book on Amazon.

Link to Penguin Australia (hard copies).