Future Files – In Turkish

Tahmin tehlikeli bir oyundur. Gelecek, asla şu ana dayanan düz doğrusal bir tahmin değildir. Genellikle hiçbir şekilde öngörülmeyen fikirler veya olaylar, en iyi şekilde hazırlanmış planları bozar; ama bu, hiçbir şekilde gelecek hakkında düşünmemekten iyidir.
Gelecek Dosyaları, dünyanın gelecek yarım yüzyılda nasıl değişebileceği hakkında kışkırtıcı tahminlerle dolu.

• Gelecekte niçin uzun banyo yapacağız?
• Orta Doğu, tüm dünyayı dize mi getirecek?
• Makineler, insanların yerini alabilir mi?
• Medya ne konumda olacak?
• Cebimizdeki parayı nerede taşıyacağız?
• Arabanız sizin yerinize karar verebilecek mi?
• Beslenmek eziyete mi dönüşecek?
• Ekonomik pazarda tam yetkiye kim sahip olacak?
• Ömrümüz uzarken genç de kalabilecek miyiz?
• İstediğimiz gibi seyahat edebilecek miyiz?
• Şirketler gelecekte varlıklarını koruyabilmek adına neler yapacaklar?

2011 Trends Update

I was in Sweden yesterday so I missed the panic on the streets of London (to quote part of an old Smiths song). Seems that some students got a bit upset and stormed the Conservative Party HQ. Who says students do nothing all day? I can’t see that this was a smart thing to do, although this presupposes a level of organisation and forward planning that probably doesn’t exist.

What was also a monumental mistake was the Prime Minister simultaneously saying that sharp rises in tuition fees would make studying in the UK more affordable for foreign students. Oh that will really help calm things down.

Who is this man listening to? Rather than surrounding himself with “advisors” that sell shoes (Tamara Mellon) and design handbags (Anya Hindmarch) perhaps he needs someone that has an understanding of the concerns of people that don’t live in Notting Hill.

Here’s my current draft of 10 Trends for 2011.

1. Uncertainty
2. Volatility
3. Resurgent religion
4. Stop-go economics
5. Formality
6. Bifurcation
7. Digital disaffection
8. Squeezed middle classes
9.Unemployment
10. Rage

China to rank #1 in patent filings by 2011?

A study produced by Thomson Reuters last month says that China should pass both the US and Japan in the number of patent applications made by next year. In 2009, China made 403,000 patent applications, putting it in third place after Japan. The US topped the rankings with 474,000 applications.

Is this an issue? From an overall standpoint no. The more scientific and technological progress the better. From a national GDP or technology competitiveness point of view yes. Patents are a good measure of innovativeness and there are also correlations between the number of patents and the number of Nobel Prize winners, so this will impact on national optimism and the feel-good factor generally.

There are lots of scenarios here. One is that China falls over and turns inward economically. Another is that China starts to top lists like this, becomes the world’s #1 economy (by 2030 or 2035?) and other nations, such as the US, turn inwards economically and lash out politically.

Too Much Information? – Take a Nap

Research by Matthew Walker at the University of California (Berkeley) says that the best way to absorb new information after lunch is to take a mid-day siesta. Apparently the hippocampus, the area of our brains that stores new material, can fill up fast during the course of a long day, especially if we are being assaulted by digital trivia all day.

But taking a nap allows the brain to move information into the pre-frontal cortex for long-tern storage, thereby freeing up more space for incoming data. Another example, perhaps, of how the future is the past.

Facebook Finish

An interesting data visualization from David McCandless showing when people break up via Facebook status updates.

Out-takes. 1) Lots of people break up before Spring Break and the summer, 2). Lots of people start the week by dumping their other half, 3) Most people have the common decency not to dump their partners on Christmas day.

What am I doing right now?

Posting on my blog – obviously. Aside from that? Sending something off to the MOD, sending a draft presentation for an insurance event and writing a lecture for QDay 2010 – The Human Interface – that is happening this month at the University Aula in Lund, Sweden.

Also sending a few emails, one about the downsides of screen based reading, another on crowd sourcing and open intelligence and another about the NHS in 2040. And, of course, the usual flood of requests and information. Oh, and I’m supposed to be doing something to promote the new US edition of Future Files (the older of my two books) but I’m not.

How about something else to read?

I haven’t bought it yet but I read a review for Why the West Rules – For Now: The Patterns of History and What They Reveal about the Future by Ian Morris.

Here’s a statistic from the review. In 1750 Europe’s combined share of world manufacturing output was 23% to China’s 33%; by 1900 it was 62% to China’s 6%. That’s fantastic! What caused such a huge shift? It was the invention of steam power in the UK, which was itself created by a pressing need to get to deep seam coal, which in turn required powerful pumps to remove the water from the mine shafts.

Don’t you just love little historical nuggets like that?

Where have all the real men gone?

Remember tough guys? Men like Steve McQueen and John Wayne – strong silent types that got the job done. Recently we’ve had SNAGS – Sensitive New Age Guys, Metrosexuals and Ubersexuals  – men who are fragile and flawed.

These guys have been feminised by society. Their hands are manicured, they cry and don’t know how to fix a car when it breaks down. Indeed, the only solid things about new age guys like Johnny Deep and Leonardo Decaprio are their hair-care routines.

Perhaps the reason that real men have disappeared – or that society has become gender neutral – is that real men scare the pants off us. Feminism says that women can do anything that men can do but according to Harvey Mansfield, a US conservative theorist, this is patently untrue. According to Mansfield, men are far more likely than women to stick their necks out for an idea or a cause and men have a far greater taste for physical and intellectual combat.

This means that men are far more likely to start wars and torture people but it also means that they are more likely to invent things or knock ideas down that don’t make sense. Whether you agree with this or not, it’s certainly an interesting area for debate.

Perhaps there is a long and bloody battle to be fought in societies where women are behaving more like men and men are acting more like women. Some people would like to see this situation partially reversed with women returning to a level of female modesty and men becoming stronger and more gentlemanly.

Wonderful Copenhagen

Where have I been? I’m so glad you asked. I’ve been in Denmark for a week. I’d forgotten just how interesting this country is. For example, the country frequently features as the “happiest place in the world” and also ranks number one in terms of income equality.

It certainly seemed the trustworthiest (is that a word?). There were bikes parked everywhere in Copenhagen but I’d estimate that less that twenty per cent were locked. Or how about the restaurant in the National Museum. Help yourself from a buffet and then pay – not the other way around. I didn’t see a single CCTV camera anywhere either.

There was even an open bottle of vodka on one table so that customers could mix themselves a Bloody Mary. Can you imagine that in the UK? People would either steal the bottle or help themselves to so much alcohol they’d fall over.

Contrast this to an American hotel I stayed in recently that contained a mini-bar that had a label on the outside saying that if I picked anything up I’d be automatically charged for it. One assumes the best in people. The other assumes the worst.

The other thing that struck me about Denmark was the quality of the public buildings (e.g. the new National Library and the airports) and how clean it all was. Another thing was the fact that everyone seemed so confident. It was as though there was a mutual understanding of what the country was about and where it was going. I’m sure the country has problems. It was expensive for one thing. But in many ways it represents a model of how a city, if not a whole country, should be run.

Thinking Foods

Letter in the newspapers last week from a Doctor Robin Hendy who worked on the safety of food additives for 12 years. He has an interest in foods that aid dream production. He confirms the existence of “cheese dreams” but goes on to add fresh strawberries, tartare sauce and raspberries. I wonder what would happen if you had a meal using such ingredients in an architectural space that also aided thinking?