From my book Future Vision (2011). But then so what?
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Lovely graphic (thx to no name)
Future Gazing
From a 2014 horizon scanning report. Now a good question that flows from this is who gets listened to?, when? and why?
What’s next? I can only see two scenarios. 1). Putin gets what he wants – largely because the West, and critically China, decide not to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Then perhaps he extends his expansion to Moldova, Georgia and even further. Ukraine itself is possibly split into two, with Russia taking the larger East of the country and the democratic government holding onto the far West. Sporadic fighting continues for years. 2). Putin finds the going harder and slower than expected. Sanctions cripple the Russian economy, social unrest grows, there is a palace coup and that’s the end of him. There is a third scenario, but at the moment there’s no off ramp for Putin in my opinion and he is committed. Also, the humiliation of backing down would be too much to bear (which is why this situation is so dangerous).
Ukraine scenarios
Nice set of scenarios for Ukraine/Russia from the BBC (I wonder what it might look like as a matrix?). The whole sorry state reminds me of Mary Schmich’s commencement speach essay: “Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing Bubblegum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind; the kind that blindside you at 4 PM on some idle Tuesday.”
And to think we we worried about a pandemic and before that Brexit not so long ago.
So what might happen next? Is Puten playing chess or poker? I think the answer largely depends on China decides to do next, especially in relation to energy imports from Russia.
Oh and the generals. always the generals. Keep an eye on them, which I’m sure is what Putin is doing….
Thought for the Day
If some companies are now larger than countries then surely, ergo, customers / consumers now have more power than voters?
Books
I love it when people send me books out of the blue. Here’s some sci-fi set in 2673, which makes a change from thinking about 2030.
Worrying….
It’s not so much that people can’t tell the difference, more that perhaps they don’t care. I think the balance between trusting machines and trusting people could be a defining issue this century.
Old mapping
Thanks to John Keith who somehow dug this out of the dust.
Just a thought…
You all know I love a map, so here’s one showing the Russian troop build up. So why hasn’t Putin invaded yet? A) It’s about the weaponization of diplomacy – gaining levergage. B). He’s about to suprise a few people and invade Belarus instead (and then onto Ukraine perhaps). C). He’s waiting on the Chinese to ready a plan to attack Taiwan at the same time. Just thinking aloud….
