More answers than questions

Everyone is focused on what’s happening. But let’s for a moment consider what isn’t happening. Why aren’t Alastair Campbell and Piers Morgan coming forward with comments on what one would think would be an area of interest? Where is the broad support among Tory MP’s for Cameron? Where is strategy wunderkind Steve Hilton and where on earth is PR supremo Matthew Freud? And are we really supposed to believe that this whole sorry saga is limited to one newspaper in one company in one country? I find it almost inconceivable that the News of The World was the only title doing this.

New map

I´ve cracked it. Got an idea for a new map for 2012. All came about by doing nothing, although music had something to do with it. Hence spent the whole of yesterday with some large sheets of white paper, a couple of pencils and an eraser.

Where you been?

Sorry folks, bit manic. Just escaped from two days talking about scenarios with an energy company (my head hasn’t hurt so much in months), trying to buy a house, kids on summer holidays for two months (help!) and a few other fun things like bloods tests down at the local hospital. Oh, and the test chapter on a new book turns out to have a fatal flaw so a re-write is on the cards for Aug 1.

Bottom line – my posts might be a bit rubbish for a few weeks.

PS – News. I think the issue is that Rupert is thinking about his legacy. The red top that he didn’t get rid of is his legacy, which is why she’s still got a job.

News of the World Hacking

So here’s what I think is going on. Coulson is a sacrificial lamb. The News of the World is being ‘closed’ to ring fence other News titles. It’s likely that the Sun and other non-News tabloids could be implicated. A new title will be launched by News once the dust has settled and most of the News Journalists will be re-employed.

But I’m just a cynical old bastard.

Digital delivery

OK, I have a question. Actually it’s not my question, it’s from Sandy in Sydney. He needs to borrow our brains.

“Any shining examples you can think of of companies that are making a successful transition from ‘analogue’ to digital delivery”.

My answer is nope. I can’t think of anything at all. Nothing in music, nothing in publishing, nothing in photography (Getty images?). Not really.

How about the wisdom of crowds on this one?

Tiny turbines

I had a thought recently. If all fossil fuels are derived from plants, which originally got their energy from light (i.e. oil, coal and gas are stored photosynthesis), why can’t we mimic this process with biological factories converting light into energy? Much more practical than solar you’d imagine. Then I thought, that’s just wood you idiot.

Another idea. I was driving down a motorway recently and noticed the grass by the road being blown by the wind created by the cars. Why can’t we harvest this energy? Why can’t we create wind turbines in the form of tiny blades of ‘grass’ to sit along freeways. 50cm blades of ‘grass’ would be so much nicer to look at than 50m wind turbines.

A third thought. Is there a website out there where I can upload an image of my face and it automatically roams cyberspace looking for me? (www.gofindme.com?). Why would one want to do such a thing? To prevent the unauthorized use of personal photographs.We probably don’t need this now, but once facial recognition is built into every CCTV camera and every mobile phone it could have its uses.

Reindeer at 35,000 feet

Finns are getting weird. Back on Finnair and this time it’s reindeer salad and cloudberries at 35,000 feet. The highlight of this trip was Gate 37a. There was a woman dressed in white standing in a corner looking at the wall. To start with I thought perhaps she had done something very naughty and had been asked by airport officials to stand in the corner for ten minutes (oh, the memories!). Then I realised she wasn’t moving.

Why would you stand facing the wall? Surely you’d look outwards. I was fascinated. I was also interested by the fact that nobody else seemed to have noticed her or, if they had, they were ignoring her.

Then it dawned on me. This was either a brilliant statue or someone was doing performance art (yawn). It turned out it was neither. She finally moved when a small girl ran up to her and looked at her up close. Turns out she was making a phone call and, I presume, was trying to block out the surrounding distractions. However, my imagination had been stirred and my eyes soon settled on a Japanese woman with perfect white skin. She looked a bit like the female android created by Professor Hiroshi Ishiguro and she wasn’t moving either. A real life robot as hand luggage? No, just someone else good at not moving.

Other news to report. First, the Finnair spa has five different types of sauna, not four as previously stated (see June 14 post). Furthermore, there’s a bathing pool filled with mineral water (there might also be one filled with asses’ milk, but I couldn’t find it). Anyway, the interesting thing was that there was a window from the pool (also observable from one of the saunas) that looked directly at a concourse, through which people are passing dragging suitcases and unruly children. But the glass is one way. You can see them but they can’t see you.

Is this a continued part of the future? A privileged few frolicking in a giant bath, while everyone else is stressing out about finding something to drink or somewhere quiet to sit. The one-way glass interests me immensely. Was it there so that the few could gawp at the many and think how lucky they were? Was it there simply to add to the experience (sitting in a pool looking at aircraft taxiing on the tarmac does have a certain appeal)? Or was it there to somehow emphasise schadenfreude? I think that’s it.

It’s same reason that business-class-only flights don’t work. Psychologically, part of the reason business class seating works is that there are other economy seats close by. The cost of a business ticket includes the perverted thrill of seeing people turn right when you turn left or, better still, having people drill past you while you are sipping champagne.

Please don’t get me wrong. I am not some kind of status junkie. Far from it. I didn’t buy my ticket and I’m certainty not paying for it. I have some Yorkshire/Scottish/ no money heritage and my greatest thrill is spending the least possible amount of money on anything. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to observe this spectacle and speculate as to whether a similar dynamic might operate across other swathes of society in the future – a polarisation where, if you can afford it, you are silently whisked from one place to another and generally treated like a king, where, if you can’t, you are stuck on hold, forced to talk to machines, made to wait in line, rounded up and treated like cattle and generally fed to the lions, red in tooth and claw, of capitalism, extreme individualism and free-market economics (i.e. my trip on easyjet to Munich last week).

One more thing. The Future of the Internet by Jonathan Zittrain is worth reading, especially the chapter about what we can learn from Wikipedia. It’s especially interesting if you read it in a sauna with fresh herbs hanging from a roof made of roughly sawn pinewood with pine needles on the floor.

Formula for trouble?

In Yemen, 65% of the population is aged under 25 years of age – and the unemployment rate is around 30%. I believe that in Tunisia the revolution was partly caused by the number of educated young men that didn’t have jobs but did have mobile phones – and access to social media. So where else in the world do you have lots of young men with phones and no prospect of work? The US might be one answer, the UK another, but I think we need to factor in some other factors (more on these another time).

Interestingly, while China doesn’t fit the formula now, it might if there was an external event that caused its export orientated economy to slow down and its young men to become unemployed.

Future forecasting

In the future traffic forecasts will be as common as weather forecasts. There will also pollution forecasts, disease forecasts and war forecasts. In fact war-forecasting is already a growth industry with a number of players in countries such as the US, Germany and Australia. One of the leading systems used to predict military outcomes is a bit of software called the Tactical Numerical Deterministic Model – TNDM – which is produced by a military think-tank called the Dupuy Institute in Washington DC. TNDC is the mother of all battle simulators, largely because it successfully predicted the outcome (particularly casualty rates and duration) of the first Gulf War and the Bosnian conflict.

The accuracy of TNDM is largely due to the fact that the Dupuy Institute sits on a mountain of historical data from previous wars and has spent time analysing the influence of such factors as rainfall, foliage cover, length of supply lines, tank positions, river widths, muzzle velocities, density of targets and the nature of the regimes participating in the conflict (democratic or authoritarian). The result is a mathematical model that predicts outcomes, which is in turn used to deliver a three-page report on casualty rates, equipment losses, capture rates and terrain gains.

What’s even more astonishing is that this software is for sale at a cost of US $93,000 (including instruction, a year’s technical support and a newsletter). Interestingly though, most people prefer the human touch and opt for the predictions plus human analysis. A future challenge is to predict the outcomes of guerrilla conflicts and the Dupuy Institute is apparently working on this.

One wonders how long it will be before a corporation develops a similar model to predict the outcome of innovations or commercial strategies.