Well brainmail is finally up. Two issues no less (don’t worry, that’s unlikely to happen again). BTW, if there are any journalism or media students out there that fancy helping out with future issues do get in touch.

So what else is new? Well I should have taken more notice of one of my computers when it said its memory was full. It crashed a few days ago taking 22,450 emails with it. All of the files were backed up, but none of the emails were. Hopefully I can get them back, although there is something rather liberating about having lost them all.

The books are going well. 50* is done and is being fact checked, although fact checking things that haven’t happened yet is proving rather fun. The other book (4*) is almost done, but needs a significant degree of polishing. Getting some scenario logic right is more difficult than I expected, as is separating the four scenarios, which have a tendency to merge together if you turn your back on them for more than a few days.

Other news? Some good stuff coming up with KPMG, GE and the London Business School and I’m almost back on the road with trips to San Francisco, Hong Kong, Lisbon, Frankfurt and Prague.

The image, btw, is the structure of the second book.

* Working titles.

A few years ago a statistical study of murders in New York City highlighted some interesting trends. The study, covering all 1622 murders that occurred between 2003-2005, found that men (including boys) were responsible for 93% of all murders.

Victims tended to be other men and boys and in more than 50% of cases the attacker and the victim knew each other. 75% of victims and offenders were also of the same race. 90% of killers and 50% of victims had criminal records. In other words, Joe Average has very little chance of being randomly killed in New York City.

The most likely time to be killed was between 1am-2am and children are usually
killed by a parent not a stranger. Age 10 is the safest age for kids because they tend to be too old to be abused or neglected and too young to get caught up in violence on the street. The most alarming adult crime trend was that 25% of murders were committed by complete strangers, usually due to a dispute of some kind. This was up 50% on 50 years previously. As for why (and why the overall murder rate had declined), the answer was primarily social factors. Crime ere generally the result of local poverty, family disruption, poor schools and a lack of recreational or work opportunities.

In the UK you can get free off-peak bus travel if you are aged 60+ So here’s a thought.

If the vibrancy and creativity of a city partly depends on the number of young people living and working in and around it, why not do something similar for the 18- 25s? Free off-peak travel on all buses, tubes and trains and subsidized flats for anyone working or studying in what society decides is a ‘useful’ profession (i.e. people working or training to be in the police, hospitals, firefighting, schools and libraries, but also musicians, poets, painters etc).

What has surprised you over the last twenty years? My list? Life! Beyond this, 9/11 without a doubt. The internet to some degree. The Arab Spring, Facebook and Twitter addiction and the lack of real interest in things such as ethics and other people in general.

What is hidden in plain sight right now that’s likely to change the world over the next 20 years? I’d say societal ageing and resource prices. Also the speed of developments in areas such as genetics, synthetic biology, AI, brain-machine interfaces and so on.

I’ve had a terrible couple of days doing nothing whatsoever of apparent value. But today inspiration stuck and I suddenly thought of a great line to finish off one of the two books I’m finishing of. It’s a spin on the old William Gibson classic.

The future is already here, but it’s unclear what we’ll decide to do with it.

Nice review of my book Future Minds hit my inbox this morning. I like that I’m described as “….a humanist rather than a techie and a pragmatist rather than a dogmatic zealot.”

Blog review here if anyone is interested.The screen grab above is only a small part of it.

BTW, we’ve not had a quote for a while so here’s a good one.

“If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run — and often in the short one — the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative.” – Arthur C. Clarke

What will life be like in the year 2020? It’s sounds a long way off but it’s not, so it should be fairly easy to make a series of educated guesses. One of the largest discernable differences could be climate. Over the past 100 years atmospheric temperatures have risen by 0.6 degrees centigrade globally. Over the next 8-12 years they can be expected to rise by a similar amount. So by 2020 it might be possible to sail right across the North Pole. Water from melting ice caps will disperse so many of the planet’s lowest-lying areas will disappear under water. So if you want to see polar bears – or visit the Great Barrier reef which will be severely damaged by rising sea temperatures – do it sooner rather than later.

On the medical front things are looking much healthier. Death rates from common cancers will have fallen, possibly by as much as 25%, and drug combinations and genetically-based treatments will treat specific tumours. Home-based robots will be commonplace, although it is doubtful whether they will become ‘pets’ as some experts are predicting. Moreover, developments in nanotechnology will displace robots in many areas. The idea of having robotic butlers to help clean up the kitchen won’t come to fruition because many of the jobs will be done by nanoparticles instead. Surfaces like kitchen bench-tops, for example, will be self-cleaning. We will also see computerised clothing enter mainstream usage with our clothes warning us if there is a biohazard nearby or perhaps telephone the nearest doctor if you fall ill or injure yourself.

Then there’s energy. It’s unlikely that many of us will be driving around in fuel-cell powered cars by 2020 and hydrogen power will still be a way off but it does look pretty certain that we will rely on more diverse sources of power. These will include solar (far more important), wind, water and tidal power generation and we’ll also see a major switch to nuclear power (possibly thorium-based power stations using spent nuclear waste). Finally there’s some bad news. Historically there have been five mass extinction periods in the earth’s history and we are about to enter a sixth. Climate change, together with urbanisation and intensive agriculture will continue to destroy a great number of species. How many? No one is saying exactly but it’s likely to at least a thousand times the natural rate.

That was interesting. Just been in Switzerland, which turns out to be my 20th country in 18 months. Full of Russians! Lots of private bank ads and watch ads too (are the three things connected?). Trains a delight. Exchange rate less so.

Still bemused by the lack of material on 2012 trends. I think it’s because people are more worried by the next 12 weeks rather than the next 12 months. If I find anything interesting I’ll be sure to post it. In the meantime working like mad to finish a new book (details to come).

I’ve been looking at various food timelines and for some reason this little gem appeared on one of them. Is it true I wonder?

In 1439, in an effort to stop the spread of disease, kissing was banned in England.

This is my last post for a little while due to the holidays. Some people may like to know that issue number 30 of my What’s Next trends report has just gone live at nowandnext.com. I’ll be back with a heaps of 2012 trends next month.