Not Thinking

This is a classic. I was on my way to an event in London this morning when I found myself on an escalator behind a woman in her mid-forties. She was wearing a perfume, which reminded me of someone that I last saw about fifteen years ago. So, without thinking about it, I leaned forward and sniffed. Unfortunately, it was quite a loud sniff, which may or may not have been accompanied by an even larger sigh. The woman quickly turned around and loudly asked: “What are you doing?”

My response was honest, although possibly not that well thought out. I simply responded: “I was sniffing you.” Never, in the history of transport have so many people given any individual quite so much room quite so fast. In the future I will sniff quietly. BTW, that’s not her in the picture.

Thinking…

Been having lunch with a couple of the the scenarios team at Shell. Interesting discussion, amongst other things about whether demand for energy could fall in the future due to dematerialization (links with a previous blog post about the story I saw in the US about electricity demand being essentially static, which seems counter-intuitive). Anyway, Shell’s new set of scenarios will be out quite soon.

The image is of a park bench on the South Bank. I was a bit early for lunch so spent 15-minutes wandering around and looking at stuff.

Brain Grenades

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The last truly great essay I found online was years ago and it was “Why the future doesn’t need us” by Bill Joy, but several people have now mentioned this one, which I stumbled upon myself a while back. It’s by Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at Oxford, and it’s called “Are you living in a computer simulation?” He argues, and I more or less quote, that at least one of the following thoughts are true.

1) The human species is likely to become extinct long before reaching a “post-human” stage. 2) Any post-human civilization is unlikely to run simulations of their evolutionary history. 3) We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. All very The Matrix.

Why very smart organizations do very dumb things

I wrote this a while ago for Fast Company magazine, but it occurs on me that a few readers might not has seen it…

Given that the average lifespan of a top 500 company in the U.S. is 40 years (12.5 years in Europe) there appears to be a serious problem with corporate longevity. But why?

One reason could be that nothing recedes quite like success – or, as Bill Gates once said, “success is a lousy teacher, it seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.” All companies start off as an idea. Start-ups are usually small and poor, which tends to create focus and urgency. If they develop a great product or service with an easily communicable point of difference, they usually grow. And therein lies a problem.

One of the first issues to arise in a growing company is that management gets separated from innovation. Peter Drucker made this point many years ago, although he used the term entrepreneurship. Although managing and innovating are different dimensions of the same thing, most companies regard them as separate. Moreover, as the urgency to stay alive evaporates, the focus shifts to internal management issues. But without continuing to innovate, companies die.

There are other challenges too. As companies grow, senior managers become physically separated from their customers. The entire board of one of the major banks in Australia takes calls from customers every week, but this is a rare exception. A recent survey by Bain & Company found that 80% of companies believed that their firm delivered superior service. Only 8% of their customers agreed. Perhaps senior managers are confusing profitable customers with happy ones. Departments like sales and customer service are usually close to the needs of customers. Hence they are close to one of the primary sources of innovation. Managers generally aren’t — they are close to the needs of management.

The culture of an organization can also contribute to failure. The dominant culture of most successful companies is conservative — to avoid risk and to proceed in an orderly fashion. This is fine in the short term, but longer-term, what made your company successful in the past may not do so in the future. Eventually a kind of corporate immune system develops that resists innovation and tries to free itself from any form of obligation to adapt, even when change is clearly on the horizon. IBM failing to see the rise of desktop computing is a good example of such Group Think. One suspects that Sony’s loss of the portable music and entertainment market or the failure of Kodak to adapt might be others. I’d say that most banks are similarly in denial.

You can spot such organizations a mile off because they tend to distrust people from the outside (including their own customers). They also think that they have absolutely nothing to learn from anyone or anywhere else. A classic mistake is only recruiting from the inside. I once worked with a retailer that strongly favoured home-grown talent over external hires. Nothing wrong with that, except in this case it reinforced the arrogant and complacent attitude that there was anything to learn from the outside.

There is also the issue of creating the reality you want, rather than seeing what is really happening. It is not uncommon for senior managers to “edit” news before it reaches the board level — so things appear much better than they really are. There’s even a story about a supermarket chain in the U.S. that repainted its stores, and hired extra staff, just before the CEO was due to make a visit. I don’t think the company ever went as far as hiring customers for the day, but once you start editing reality where do you stop? In addition to corporate culture, corporate structure often gives rise to another problem. As Clayton Christensen points out, large organizations are generally structured on departmental levels. As a result most innovation is incremental. For example, most innovation inside fast-moving consumer goods companies takes the form of endless line extensions to existing products. Unfortunately, young start-ups have no respect for these boundaries, so it is generally they who invent new categories and business models in response to changing conditions or new customer attitudes and behavior. In other words, unless you can look at innovation from a whole business perspective and make innovation truly cross-functional (twinning designers with R&D staff as Procter & Gamble now does, for instance) innovation will never get beyond the component or existing category/product level.

But perhaps none of this is a bad thing. After all, survival is not compulsory. Perhaps everything (individuals, organizations, markets, countries) need to die – or at least be threatened with extinction – so that the cycle of innovation can begin again.

Here are a few quick tips to prevent your organization from doing dumb stuff and dying too young.

•Water your roots. Re-discover the entrepreneurial zeal and focus that founded your company in the first place.

• Think about how a start-up would operate in your market. How could you apply this thinking to make your own organization more resilient?

• Don’t just look at what the big guys are doing. Study what the start-ups are doing, especially those on the fringes of your market.

• History repeats itself. Companies and markets tend to operate in cycles, so know where you are and act accordingly.

Something waiting to happen

Two things I’ve been thinking about. First, how a virtual roller coaster at Universal Studios was far more thrilling than any of the real roller coaster rides. Second, how these theme parks, especially Disneyland, are so vulnerable to attack. There are bag searches and finger print scans, but the bag searches are cursory and there is no attempt to search the person.

In wet or cold weather, when people wear coats, you could get almost anything through security at these theme parks. I’m not talking about terrorists here. More internal elements, especially a repeat of the Sandy Hook elementary school shooting. It’s not just the ease of smuggling things in though. It’s the concentration of people, especially children, in relatively small spaces. I hope someone out there is thinking about this and ways to prevent such an outrage.

A De-Materialized Christmas

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s Christmas time. You know, mistletoe and wine. Children singing Christian rhyme. We’ve got logs on the fire and gifts on the tree.

But no. Wait. It’s gone all virtual. Seriously, things are a little weird this year. My eldest wants things that don’t have any physical presence – digital music, digital games, e-books. So the tree is there, but there’s not much underneath it. How long, I wonder, until they tree itself is simply a digital projection (available for instant download in millions of colours and designs) and the relatives show up a holograms.

2013: Hello. Goodbye.

I’ve been collaborating with Ross Dawson to create a quick visual summary of some of the things that will be appearing and disappearing in our lives in 2013. The graphic is above and a text list is below.

Here is the full list in text form (in no particular order):

APPEARING

Augmented reality glasses

Thought control

3D printing in the home

Personal DNA testing

Digital butlers

Voice control TV

Customized medicine

Pay by fingerprint

Electric sports cars

Robot sex

Conversational computing

Empathic robots

Gesture interfaces

Flexible, foldable mobile phones

Robo-nannies

Infinite color at home

Personalized billboards

Networked professional services

Bio-Hacking

Pollution absorbing clothes

Biodegradable electronics

Automated instant translation

Memory implants

Video wallpaper

Retail delivery boxes

DISAPPEARING

Intimacy

Computer mouse

Spelling

Landline telephones

Coins

Privacy

Video rental stores

Public phones

Vacuuming

Retirement

Weekday newspapers

CDs/DVDs

Chain bookstores

e-Cards

Space tourism

8 hours sleep

Switching off

9-5 workdays

Dining rooms

Handwriting

Shop assistants

Biodiversity

Non-internet businesses

Printing photographs

Welfare state

Learning foreign languages

Paper medical records

Watches for under 25s

Focused attention

Maps

Shame

The other great Dylan

I’m in Wales today, so it’s probably time for a bit of Dylan Thomas…

“A good poem is a contribution to reality. The world is never the same once a good poem has been added to it. A good poem helps to change the shape of the universe, helps to extend everyone’s knowledge of himself and the world around him.”

Just one more bit?

“I know we’re not saints or virgins or lunatics; we know all the lust and lavatory jokes, and most of the dirty people; we can catch buses and count our change and cross the roads and talk real sentences. But our innocence goes awfully deep, and our discreditable secret is that we don’t know anything at all, and our horrid inner secret is that we don’t care that we don’t.”