Just been playing around with a scenario matrix for the future of 3D printing. The vertical axis seems obvious – whether control remains closed or opens up (i.e. is the copyright of designs vigorously defended or opened up). The horizontal axis is much less clear and currently seems to close to the vertical (you could argue that both are identical, which is useless). Anyway, it’s a start.
Just finishing off something on 3D printing (bigger than the internet or just a load of plastic junk?) and thought I’d share this with you. As you can see, consumer 3D printing is at the top of the hype cycle and about to plunge into the trough of disillusionment. Not sure if Gartner have done a 2014 update yet, but it doesn’t appear so.
A report called ‘It’s a Man’s (Celluloid) World’, looking at the 100 biggest grossing US movies of 2013, found that men played around 70% of onscreen speaking roles, 71% of major characters were men and 85% of characters deriving the plot were male.
A copy of the report can be found here.
“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma: but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” – Winston Churchill
What’s going to happen in Ukraine? I think the most probable short-term outcome is that Putin will wait and see how things unfold, both politically and economically. However, if Ukraine shifts politically towards Europe I believe that it’s almost inconceivable that Russia will just sit back and let this happen.From my perspective Russia is driven by two key factors.First, psychologically, Russia is still traumatized by the loss of or, at least the dilution of, its empire and sphere of influence. Russia would like both back and I expect geographical expansion to be a real possibility. The fact that Russia’s Black Sea fleet is still based in Ukraine only adds to these tensions.
Second, Russia has demographic problems that could derail any economic promise. Since 1992 the number of Russians dying has outnumbered those being born by a massive 50%. Indeed official figures suggest the country has shrunk by 5% since 1993 and life expectancy is marginally lower than in 1961. By 2050, Yemen’s population will theoretically be larger than Russia’s. If Russia can add to its population by geographical expansion I’d expect it to do so. One might also add that Russia’s current economic and political power largely stems from its energy reserves. At the moment high oil and gas prices put Putin in a strong position – possibly to do nothing – but if energy prices collapse Putin’s legitimacy could be challenged and his response might be to indulge in diversionary tactics, such as invading Ukraine. Time will tell.
You did not exist for 99.999999997 per cent of the Earth’s history. Now, what are you doing that’s so important again?
Just back from Mexico (La Paz) where I’ve been blissfully disconnected from the modern world for a week. I was messing around on a boat, largely looking for whales, and one thing that stood out for me was the fact that we have perhaps lost the art of looking. If you live in a city, which globally 50% of us do, the furthest you generally look is the opposite side of the road. If you work in an office it’s probably down to 18 inches – the distance from the end of your nose to the screen you are reading this on. And we rarely focus on what’s to our sides.
Does this matter? I don’t know. It’s possibly not so much a loss of distance per se, but the fact we are less aware of and connected to our physical environment. I guess this links to two things. First emerging risks and second emerging opportunities.
BTW, if you want to see someone amazing whale images go here.
Got back from San Francisco (San Jose actually) end of last week and now off to Brussels. Then it’s Mexico. No time to think, so here’s a secret password to get you into the premium parts of What’s Next.
Just go to What’s Next and type in vip and ticket (both lower case) as the username and password under Premium Features (left hand side of homepage). This will get you into an issue archive going back to 2004, two trend libraries (by sector) and the search function. The free love will be good for a while.
Here’s my list of trends for 2014. Detail on each to follow each day starting tomorrow.
1. Real & Raw
2. Big Data
3. Self-Tracking
4. Populism
5. Social Cynicism
