I love this clip from 1975. I’d say about half of the predictions have been proven right and half are very wrong.

I did a keynote at an Eco-Tourism conference yesterday. Here are my notes for anyone that’s interested.

Society

Acceleration of just about everything
Increased stress means that people looking for stress-relieving activities
Rise of slow movement
Shift from products to experiences (links with search for meaning)
Increasing risk aversion but search more extreme sensory experiences
Increasingly visual culture
Culture of instant gratification

Demographics

Impact of ageing (growth in number of 55-65+)
Declining fertility – smaller families with less time and fewer kids
Fragmented families (more individualized behaviour)
Gen Y low spend per night
Gen X high spend but time starved
Boomers/seniors long holidays but low overall spend

Economy

Global slowdown most prevalent in US/Europe
Relative liquidity of CHIME/BRIC nations
Labour shortages create a war for talent within hospitality industry
Polarisation of markets between low-cost and premium segments
Longer term, the cost of oil will create a slowdown in tourism (maybe)
Polarisation between local SMEs and global brands

Technology

Growth of in-home leisure experiences
Development of virtual worlds (world’s first virtual travel agency)
Growth of telepresence and virtual conferences
Expected increase in cyber-terrorism and cyber vandalism
IT enabling further transparency of markets
Impact of mobile web, GPS, RFID

Politics

Shift of power from West to East
Increase in regulation and compliance
Increase in security and border controls

Environment

Increasing eco-awareness
Impact of social and ethical concerns
Changing weather patterns influencing destination development
Increased stress on natural resources
Development of carbon economy (possible red herring)
Expected swing back to local/domestic travel caused by cost/congestion
Future shortages of all key resources, especially water in some regions
Significant difference between customer attitudes and behaviour

Tourism

Development of enclosed or enclave tourism
Growth of cultural tours (edutainment)
Voluntourism no longer just a gap year activity (search for meaning again)
Dark tourism (extreme experiences)
Development of new Asian destinations (especially Gulf States)
Growth of natural and eco-tourism
Sustainability issue spreading from airlines to hotels and beyond
Impact of inbound CHIME and BRIC tourists
Tourists seeking balance between cultural familiarity (safety) and new experiences
Rise of branded hotels and experiences
Development of long-haul low-cost travel (temporary?)
New hubs
Eco-luxe
Camping (nostalgia)
Rise of sabbaticals

Key uncertainties

Economy
Oil price spikes
Influenza pandemics
Terrorism
CHIME/BRIC growth
Currency movements (e.g. collapse of US$)
Extreme weather events
Weather patterns
Space weather
Critical infrastructure failure
Anti-tourism sentiment
Eco-cynicism

The more life speeds up, the more people will want to step off for a while. Hence the growth in spa experiences, personal indulgences and stress relief holidays. This trend is even influencing domestic architecture and interior design with bathrooms turning into spa heavens and whole houses turning into tiny resorts of sorts. Probably links with cocooning.

In 2003 low cost operators were responsible for 23% of all US air traffic. However, discount carriers are now finding that they are having to compete on more than just price as customers are demanding higher levels of comfort and entertainment. This has led to the ‘discount diva’ — a customer who has sophisticated tastes in relation to airport and in-flight services, but expects bargain basement prices too. An example of this is Virgin Blue in Australia (a low cost airline) which offers low cost travellers access to exclusive Blue Room pay as you go airline lounges.

As low cost services spread across the world, so too does the appeal of the opposite: high-cost, high touch exclusivity and personal pampering. For some, low cost fares leave extra cash to splash out on expensive hotels, while for others business and first class cabins are the new hotels. Hence we’ve now got business class only planes and business class only air terminals. And, of course, the more travellers get used to luxury, the more of it they want, which leaves them with something of a dilemma. How to set yourself apart from everyone else when almost everyone else seems to have exactly the same idea?

Travellers are taking advantage of the plethora of no-frills airlines, affordable hotels (also booked at the last moment) and last-minute/find-and-seek websites to increasingly act on a whim. Thus making spontaneous decisions to go somewhere is becoming the norm, especially for the Internet generation who do everything at Internet speed.

According to the World Tourism Organisation, there will be 1,500,000,000 airline trips made by the year 2020. That’s a lot of airmiles. Of course, a big rise in fuel prices could put an end to this since nobody has yet discovered a serious alternative for jet fuel. Equally, another outbreak of SARS or another (successful) 9/11 style attack could also move the numbers in the opposite direction.