Scenario 3 Draft

This is a world of bewilderment. An anarchic world where nobody is quite sure what’s going to happen next. It is very much an event-orientated world where the latest gadget, real estate boom, health scare or terrorist attack causes individuals and institutions to wildly overreact. Nobody knows the stability or direction of anything

A key social dynamic in this world is generational change. It is a world of digital natives and digital immigrants. Generation Y is now approaching retirement although most don’t give up work due to a combination of debt and the need for physical contact with other people. Generation Z (sometimes known as iGen) is very much in charge although the continued presence of Gen Y and Gen X creates all kinds of cultural issues, especially in workplace environments.

The economy is very much a re-run of the first decade of the 21st century. GDP growth is surging ahead, especially in the Middle East, Asia and parts of South America and this causes runaway inflation, real estate bubbles, environmental degradation and resource shortages. Everything from people and water to tranquillity and certainty seems to be in very short supply.

The high level of global connectivity has fuelled a rapid expansion of knowledge content (as it is now known) and this just adds to the level of anxiety. Knowledge goes out of date faster than mobile communication devices and the sheer volume of content (much of it now co-created) means that information trust is at an all time low. Technology is also chaotic with new formats and standards being created daily. This media mayhem should create an opportunity of libraries and librarians but unfortunately most people simply dismiss both as relics of a bygone age.

Corporations with almost unlimited budgets start to buy up existing information resources and fund the creation of private information. Copyright therefore becomes closed and individuals and institutions are forced to pay for access to the most reliable and useful information, either through annual subscriptions or via ad hoc pay-per-view micro payments.

The high price of energy, together with the widespread adoption of digital lifestyles, also creates a series of problems with regard to the electricity supply. New storage (battery) technologies partly solve this problem but blackouts become common, especially in urban areas.  Consequently, some people seek to back-up their lifestyles with a variety of old-fashioned products. These range from candles and bicycles to notepaper and analogue telephones. Some schools even go as far as buying old textbooks in case e-books become unreliable.

To make matters worse, the internet is plagued by a number of separate issues. Internet traffic has exploded. The number of users has gone through the roof but so too has bandwidth demand due to the shift away from text towards audio and video.

Internet brownouts eventually become such a problem that the government acts to limit demand. Priority access is given to essential public services, followed by large companies and lastly households. In some cases this means that the intenet is not available at all between certain hours, whereas in other instances data transmission speeds relate directly to user type. Fortunately, libraries are defined as an essential public service and they are given 24/7 access to the fastest wireless connections. They are also given access to additional funds if they agree to provide a range of e-government services.

To begin with it seems certain that libraries are destined to digital oblivion, especially since government finding is rationalised and the profession fails to attract staff due to ongoing image problems. However, there is a small silver lining behind the digital cloud. Smaller and medium sized firms that cannot afford premium priced information services and do not trust online information start to send their staff to libraries to get vital information. This coincides with a small rise in the number of visits made by freelance workers and this all results in people lobbying private employers to support the local library network.

Hence funding from private sources increases slightly and this enables public libraries to maintain their range of online and virtual services, which now includes technology support. In a surprise move some libraries then set up commercial services to compete with the high-end commercial information services and this generates a reasonable level of revenue for investment back in to the network. Nevertheless, a combination of staff shortages, resource scarcity and funding cuts mean that most libraries struggle to maintain vibrancy.

Eventually, corporations and governments start to realise that there is nothing more ephemeral than digital memory but by then it is too late.

Draft Timeline #3

2010
Retail sales unexpectedly increase by 10%
Internet hours in libraries up 59.5% over past 5 years but books loans static
The real estate association of NSW officially declares that the recession is over
House prices fall by 5% in NSW
Collapse of ANZ sparks widespread investor panic
China declares that it has hit peak water and starts to import water from Arctic Circle.
Australian government starts to outsource back-office library services
Libraries ban the use of ladders and staplers citing health & safety concerns

2011
Market for premium-priced information emerges online
Google introduce human search operatives as part of subscription package
Report claims widespread use of screens is damaging children’s eyesight
(report is largely ignored until it is released online)
First Mac virus causes widespread havoc

2012
Changing market for information creates various new jobs and opportunities
Report says that ‘recreational’ library visits up 16% in 5 years to 2009
Same report says that ‘information’ trips to libraries down by 55%
New York Times acquired by News Corp
First global phone virus emerges
Global shortage of Sony e-readers caused by plastics shortages
Several rural library services forced to merge
Widespread local council amalgamation in NSW

2013
Closed copyright increases. Most valuable information now owned by corporations
Library decline now hits 20% per annum
NSW state government collapses for second time in two years
IBM announces that henceforth it is closing its HQ in favour of a virtual headquarters
Survey says that 66% of adults (and 12% kids) do not trust online information
Video showing death of Paris Hilton in Hilton Paris causes internet to crash globally

2014
Peak oil hits. Price increases from $150-$175 in a single day
First major internet brownout in China causes widespread chaos
Library staffing levels slightly improve due to bookshop diaspora
90% of kids in the US have a TV and computer in their bedroom
Mayor in large metropolitan area forces public libraries to house Starbucks cafes
Households start to back-up digital lifestyles with various analogue products

2015
First major internet brownout in USA
Surging world commodity prices sparks energy terrorism
Schools ban use of mobile phons and iPods in playgrounds
Skilled labour shortage results in open immigration policy
Widespread chaos as government census crashes
Life becomes increasingly virtual
Article in Sydney Morning Herald highlights growth in vinyl record shops
Local government chaos as regions amalgamated
Reports says that the average father spends 6 minutes per day talking to his children

2016
Oil now at $150 per barrel (peak oil is here)
Peak Oil for Dummies announced as the best selling book of 2015
Work becomes more mobile and less dominated by physical presence
Increase in freelance and flexible working conditions
Libraries forced to extend opening hours as they become workplaces for many
Government announces new tax on website content
Government funding of libraries hits an all time low
Widespread public protests concerning library funding
Price of water rises from $1litre to $2 litre

2017
Workers become increasingly responsible for their own training
AusTrade says information becoming increasingly vital to exports
Libraries witness massive demand for desk-space from mobile workers
Libraries unsuccessfully start to charge for desk space
The ABC charges for premium content online
Report says that 78% of office workers now eat lunch at their desk
Federal government announces major distance learning programme

2018
Study announces that librarians ranked #3 for trust behind nurses and teachers
Government’s just-in-time learning initiative ends in complete chaos
Teacher fired for banning e-books is reinstated amidst parent outrage
Widespread chaos as research study unable to agree on resilience of media formats
Peak water crisis in most major cities in Asia-Pacific
Energy use reaches all time high. Electricity shortages start.
Shortages of key raw materials limits growth of technology

2019
Government regulates internet use
Libraries made exempt from internet restrictions
Librarians become increasingly multi-skilled and technology savvy
Rationalisation of government towards e-services
Google buys News Corp following death of Rupert Murdoch
New Libraries Act puts pressure on free services
Widespread adoption of some user-pays services in local libraries

2020
Growth in automated information back-up services
Racial tensions result in first ever library shooting in NSW
Government funding announced for improved library security
Water shortages become commonplace in Australia.
Electricity shortages still a major issue

2021
Widespread adoption of user-pays and subscription services by news media
Libraries follow suit although some librarians refuse to implement the idea
Free content on internet limited to headlines and user-generated content

2022
Libraries set up user committees to advise on collection strategies and services

2023
Government funding for public libraries unchanged in 10 years
Public outrage over threat to libraries results in local business support
Income inequality causes a series of riots in city-centres
Government announces self-sufficiency strategy

2024
Group of disenchanted librarians establish ‘library tents’ in rural towns
Google opens a series of physical information stores (i.e. libraries) in major cities

2025
Additional lifestyle services added to libraries including gyms and restaurants
Literary lunches and Dickens after Dark both surprise hits at the State library of NSW

2026
Nothing much happens. Just the usual series of chaotic events and funding cuts

2027
18-month heatwave and power-cuts in NSW causes widespread damage to old digital manuscripts and paper collections

2028
All public libraries equipped with back-up power generators

2029
Libraries attempt to sell off the least popular 80% of collections but fail to find bidders

2030
State library announces scenario project looking at the future of libraries in 2060

Scenario 4 Draft

This is a world of restless hypertext and universal access. Global economic growth, primarily driven by Asia, results in an expansion of digital connectivity and an explosion of digitalised information. It is a fast-paced world of global markets and endless technological innovation.

Life is good for most people, although rapid economic growth creates a number of problems ranging from surging energy prices to unaffordable real estate. The price of oil soon rises to an all time high and there are shortages of everything from water, wheat and plastic to copper, lithium and cadmium. This initially creates various manufacturing and supply problems and leads to unrest in some regions, especially areas where the price of food staples are high. However, most of these issues are soon solved through energy innovation and the widespread adoption of virtual products and services.

One serious cloud on the horizon is ageing, which results in severe skills shortages in most regions. This is particularly true in industries such as information technology, education, healthcare and security. Most governments ultimately solve this through automation, outsourcing or by importing skilled labour but there are still problems. The first two solutions cause demonstrations and boycotts, while the third (immigration) sparks racial tensions. This is especially true in poorer areas and violence in the streets spills over into government offices, schools, hospitals and libraries.

As for books things have changed quite fundamentally. e-books have proven to be very popular and are now mandatory within secondary and tertiary education. Libraries therefore house collections of work related or vocational e-books that can be downloaded for free onto a variety of devices. This situation obviously creates ongoing copyright problems, although the invention of ‘read-once’ e-books and the ‘buy for life’ iBook service partly solves some of the most immediate issues.

The biggest problem for libraries, apart from funding, is relevance. People have access to information at home and at work and can buy or borrow digital books from a variety of online services at the click of a mouse. Libraries therefore attempt to compete by extending opening hours and by introducing a number of leisure related services ranging from healthcare screening and technology tuition to childcare and mental health gyms. Libraries also double as third spaces, providing free workspace to digital nomads and silver surfers that have nowhere else to go.

Libraries still loan physical books but these have become boutique recreational items or items of historical record much like newspapers and magazines. In terms of collections, most resources are now devoted to either the creation of local information or the acquisition of e-books and e-learning materials.
Timeline — Scenario #4

2010
Launch of Kindle 2 in Australia starts to revolutionise reading habits
Bookshops go out of business at a rate of 50 per week in Australia
Apple launches iBooks store in US with provocative  ‘burning books’ advertisement
Announcement that 6/10 best selling books in Japan in 2009 were mobile downloads
Announcement that best selling book of 2009 was a cookbook

2011
Global growth returns
Oil price hits $120 per barrel
China buys up vast stocks of Lithium from Bolivia
Food inflation returns due to widespread adoption of bio-fuels
Physical books can now be reserved online from most public libraries
First major internet brownout in China causes widespread chaos
Publication of a series of books by technology futurists saying “I told you so”
National campaign using games and music in an attempt to get teens to visit libraries

2012
Amount of new information produced annually reaches epidemic proportions
Newspaper article says that only 10% of products sold in Borders are books
Hottest summer on record in most countries
Sales of print books continue to decline
Libraries stop lending films and music due to online competition
Inflation hits 10% or above in the majority of countries
Google buys Stanford’s map shop in London’s Covent Garden

2013
Series of scandals surrounding circulation of false health information
All public libraries now offer some form of online virtual collection.
Banks no longer offer paper statements
e-books become mandatory in universities
Libraries become storage areas housing ‘digital originals’ (i.e. books)
Cyber attack on UK government results in loss of 45 million e-records
Major government investments in solar energy and water recycling
Digital publishing outstrips print format
Videoeasy goes bust
Report claims that 30% of 5-8 year-olds have never read a physical book
Paper use falls by 33% in offices globally in a single year

2014
50% increase in sales of Toyota Prius
Libraries experiment with pay-per-view downloads
Claim that the average person now walks around with 10 batteries on his/her person
Libraries offer e-tax return guidance and advice service
Library network unsuccessfully launches @home book delivery with Post Office
YouGov survey says that the average household contains 10 books (8 are cookbooks)

2015
Launch of 3-D TV by Foxtel
Sony introduce e-paper in Officeworks
Government urbanisation strategy focuses on high-density living
Creation of single library association
Boom in serious media titles
Widespread adoption of RFID in public libraries
Wearable computers now widely available

2016
Libraries expand range of e-government services
Report says that average walking speed in 20 cities worldwide is up 25% on 2009
Government runs commercial to reduce noise in open-plan offices
Government introduces a series of laws relating to internet filtering and censorship
Libraries introduce cross-format media-on-demand vending machines
Supermarkets offer e-book download service
e-tax returns now mandatory

2017
4.5 billion people now own mobile phones. 70% are now internet connected.
Libraries respond to demand for workspaces with introduction of hot desks
Libraries offer before and after work childcare
Libraries start to sell iPhones and Sony e-readers
Recruitment and CV services available in libraries
All books, documents and artefacts in libraries now geo-tagged
The content creation industry continues to consolidate
News Corporation starts to charge for all online content
Major retrospective of computer graphics 1980-2015 at the National Gallery

2018
Series of clean tech breakthroughs result in oil falling to under $100 a barrel
Most library catalogues are open-source
Librarians start to recommend specific titles as being better than others
Survey claims that 25% of adults no longer read anything in physical format

2019
Libraries as physical spaces highly valued by public
50% of e-book and e-zine sales now made through supermarkets
Library shelves fully digitalized and contain scannable user recommendations
Best selling book of 2019 is The Kingdom of Infinite Cyberspace

2020
Libraries offer mental health workouts for senior citizens
Government funds study looking at reasons behind declining attention spans
All libraries now have cafes
MIT Media lab demonstrates new 5-D e-paper
Oil falls to $50 a barrel
First subscription-only public libraries in NSW

2021
Localisation trend intensifies, especially with local search, local maps and local news
Collection strategies focus on local history and vocation-based materials
Libraries become the largest buyer of physical newspapers and periodicals
Google announces that it is no longer interested in digitalizing the world’s libraries

2022
Local community movement starts and rapidly spreads around NSW
Philanthropists divert resources away from art galleries to libraries
Libraries offer courses in DIY book publishing

2023
All libraries equipped with nano-solar power
Copyright agency approves ‘book for life’ download service

2024
Wave of cultural consolidation with libraries merging with museums and art galleries
Typical library opening hours now 8.30am to 11.00pm
Library network announces major tie up with school library network

2025
18 regional library services compressed into just 6 in NSW
Library of the future is built incorporating an art gallery, concert hall and museum
Steve Jobs announces that his memoir will only be available as an ibook download
80% of the global population now has Internet access

2026
Librarians now widely known as information evangelists
Open libraries catalogues now commonplace
Libraries offer edited list of the best web links for particular topics
English now the third most popular language on the web behind Chinese and Spanish

2027
Public libraries install media on demand vending machines
Libraries offer business news and intelligence service.
Libraries sell anti-virus software
UNESCO joins with the US Library of Congress to launch the World Digital Library

2028
Information now ranked according to source credibility rather than in-coming links
Department of Media and sport announces that libraries will focus on sports history

2029
Internet addiction now a globally recognised condition
Libraries offer evening courses in linear reading
Libraries offer school study spaces and homework classes

2030
Physical books become luxury items alongside newspaper and magazines
85% of public libraries now virtual. Physical buildings used for storage only

Tweak to the matrix. As Oliver pointed out an axis based on low to high technology change doesn’t work because high technology change is a given. I can imagine one scenario where it isn’t but not two. This can be dealt with via the wild cards.

So…a revised matrix where the uncertainty is around whether a high rate of technology change is managed or chaotic. Much better.

OK, here’s the draft scenario matrix.

OK, here’s where we are at. The X-axis on the scenario matrix is pretty set. The driver is the value placed on physical things. This includes library buildings, librarians and books etc.

But the Y-axis? One option is the availability of resources (funding, staff, energy etc). Another option is the level of technology change (fixed v fluid). What we are getting at here, I guess, is the level of uncertainty around e-books in particular and formats in general.

Any views out there in library land?

PS. the image is from the first workshop.

In case anyone is interested in the process for this scenario-planning project it is roughly as below. By the way I am not doing this alone. Far from it. Oliver Freeman at NFA is Head of Process (I’m Head of Content apparently) and Cameron M, Ellen F and Leanne P are guiding the rest of the core scenarios team. I will name check everyone in due course.

The process (snack-sized version):

Stage One:  Questions

Identifying the set of key framing questions most relevant to the overall achievement of the organisational purpose (as the key focus for this strategic enquiry).

Contextualising in an Issues Report the range of ideas, which will together drive the creation of the Framing Questions for the Scenario Building activity. The main purpose of this initial stage is to frame in precise terms the burning issues and concerns faced by the Library Network and in defining the overarching Framing Question to guide and focus the strategic enquiry.

Stage Two: Environments

Identifying and assessing the major trends, critical uncertainties and predetermined elements whose combinations are shaping future environments using expert-based, trend-based and foresight methodologies.

This stage requires a comprehensive review of the Network’s external environments. Conceptually, it is useful to see any organisation or community as an integrated set of components that are embedded within and separate from an environment of many dynamic factors (natural, social, political, economic, cultural and technological) whose inter-relationships are complex and will create emergent futures.

Stage Three: Scenarios

Creating a set of differentiated scenario worlds in order to identify new opportunities and unforeseen risks associated with these future environments. Part of the set will be a preferred future, which will be built as a consequence of the enquiry launched by Stage 1.

Scenarios provide a framework to develop and evaluate organisational strategies. Scenarios are possible views of the world, providing a context in which executives can make decisions. By seeing a range of possible worlds, decisions will be better informed and a strategy based on this knowledge and insight will be more likely to succeed. The purpose of building scenarios is not to get the future right, as it were, but to stimulate reflection and debate on how strategically to shape the future together.

As you may know I’m involved with a scenario planning project looking at the future of public libraries. Usually these projects are confidential but on this rare occasion I can talk openly about what we are doing and what the scenario team is thinking.

There are about 45 people working on this project although the core scenario building team is much smaller. We have now developed 2 framing questions, which are roughly as follows:

1. What professional skills and attitudes will public library staff be demonstrating in 2030 in order to be successful in the alternative futures in which they might operate?

2. Where will the leadership and funding that drives this success come from?

We have also developed a series of indicative scenarios and briefly discussed around 20 key influences. The next stage is to create some conversations around these influences, edit the influences down to a handful of key drivers and develop a scenario matrix. From this matrix we will then create a series of scenario worlds and create a logical narrative around each scenario.

If anyone out there in library land (or anywhere else) would like to comment or contribute to the long list of key influences this would be most welcome. The list is currently as follows (not ranked):

• Sustainability

• Pricing (free versus user pays)

• Demand for space (third spaces and refuge)

• Media formats (fixed versus fluid)

• Trustworthiness of information

• Changing attitudes to work (especially mobility)

• Funding (high versus low – all sources)

• The value the local community puts on information/knowledge

• Service provision (stand alone versus integrated)

• Demographic change (ageing, ethnic shifts etc)

• Access equity

• Social cohesion / identity

• Democratisation of information (web 2.0 etc)

• Demand for literacy/navigation

• Library network (fragmented versus unified)

• Supply of new professionals

• Staff resistance to change

• Pace of technological change

• Demand for recreational use of libraries

So:have we missed anything? All comments extremely welcome and from anyone.