Monthly Archives: June 2013

Future Vision (Free Download)

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It occurs to me that this blog is, officially, The Diary of an Accidental Futurist, so in theory it is not totally out of order to occasionally say what I’ve been doing. But before I do that, here’s a link to a free download (first 40 pages) of my new book, Future Vision, which is published in the UK next week.

So where’s Wally been? I’ve been meeting some interesting people, all of whom have in some way informed my thinking about how the future may unfold and will doubtless appear in a book someday. Last week it was a Brainmail reader, who turned out to be an Israeli diplomat based in Jerusalem, with whom I had a discussion about the US/China/Russia and the meaning of G-Zero, replacements for the Westphalian State, the implications of technology, whether geographical divides are still relevant and water.

This week it was a wonderful London Business School Professor, ate an omelet and had a discussion about art, ethics, smoking and the joy of just thinking. I’ve also been talking with Lend Lease about gardening and thinking (and corporations as biological systems rather than machines). Pretentious, Moi?

I’ve also been visiting Imperial College London learning more about synthetic biology, energy storage and autonomous vehicles. If you are interested, there are some good (short) videos from Imperial on these and other subjects here. Finally, I’ve been in my writing zone and managed spit out an article on Five Jobs for the Future for this weekend’s edition of the Guardian.

Image: Remindmagazine.wordpress.com (check out the TV with 21 channels!)

The Future of Europe

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I see that the French President, Francois Hollande, has stated that the crisis within Europe is “now over.” Non. These were written on the back on an envelope recently and I’ve made no attempt at driving forces or a matrix, but I quite like them.

Scenario 1. Disorderly collapse
Growing inequality brought on by unemployment and income polarization create civil unrest and extreme nationalism aimed primarily at anyone that is not seen as being part of the group (i.e. local). Taxation and fines widely seen as unfair make matters worse. Outward migration rises (especially of younger people) while the impacts of rapid ageing start to be felt. The result is that EU competitiveness declines, which together with a flight from the Euro leads to a break-up of the European Union. The German economy goes into a nosedive as exports within former EU region become prohibitively expensive.

Scenario 2. Muddling through
Without tackling any of the fundamental issues such as competitiveness, the EU project carries on with token concessions to the growth agenda reducing the impact of austerity measures. The ECB muddles through, soothing the impact of various country debt dramas. Economic performance and competitiveness is variable, but generally sluggish and the US, China, India and Russia and others start to bottom feed on various EU assets fuelling an inevitable local backlash.

Scenario 3. Greater unification exposes differences
The EU attempts to stabilize itself by expanding geographically and by attempting to increase economic and social integration. However, expansion and unification merely expose fundamental differences between the European north, south, west and east. Migration into key member states increases exposing hidden tribal and xenophobic tendencies. Things carry on for years, but eventually the project collapses under its own bureaucratic weight.

Scenario 4. Smaller but stronger
Following the national bankruptcy and EU exist of (select one or more from the following: Portugal, Italy, Greece or Spain) and the virtual exit by the UK, a new union is created by France and Germany with Benelux annexed. This results is a more dynamic union with greater fiscal and social unification, although disagreements persist.

Scenario 5. Accidental winner
Serious US and Asian economic problems, most notably in China, result in the Euro replacing the US dollar and aspirant Yen as the international currency. This results in inward investment, economic growth and a fall in unemployment across the region. Long-standing disagreements and structural difficulties are forgotten.

The World in 2030

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Judging by recent events, 2030 is the new 2020.

Yesterday I spent the afternoon with an insurance company discussing mega-trends likely to impact on the world out to 2030. Last week I was asked, alongside Oliver Freeman, to comment on a National Intelligence Council (NIC) document looking at global trends for 2030. I guess 2020 is now considered too close to be interesting or perhaps the “2020 Vision” joke is starting to wear a bit thin.

The NIC document (publicly available from the NIC website or in hard copy via Amazon) identifies 4 mega-trends for 2030. These are: individual empowerment, diffusion of power, demographic shifts and the energy/water/food nexus (See Shell’s latest set of scenarios that identify the same energy/food/water stress nexus). Headlines include the rapid growth of a prosperous middle class (up to 3 billion people globally against one billion today) and the forecast that Islamic terrorism may subside, although the tactics of terrorists are likely to continue, alongside increased interstate tensions relating to key resources. The NIC foresees the US remaining a preeminent world power, although it is no longer uniquely dominant.

The NIC report also highlights six game-changers. These are: a crisis-prone global economy, a governance gap, increased conflict potential, wider scope of regional instability, impact of new technologies and the role of the US in re-inventing the international system. I will let you have my comments on the NIC report when I’ve read and digested it.

To bring 2030 to a close, Ross Dawson’s scenario framework for 2030 is worth a look, but if you don’t have time the matrix is based around two key drivers. The first is resource availability (resource poverty versus resource affluence) while the other is around social cohesion.