From a 2014 horizon scanning report. Now a good question that flows from this is who gets listened to?, when? and why?

What’s next? I can only see two scenarios. 1). Putin gets what he wants – largely because the West, and critically China, decide not to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Then perhaps he extends his expansion to Moldova, Georgia and even further. Ukraine itself is possibly split into two, with Russia taking the larger East of the country and the democratic government holding onto the far West. Sporadic fighting continues for years. 2). Putin finds the going harder and slower than expected. Sanctions cripple the Russian economy, social unrest grows, there is a palace coup and that’s the end of him. There is a third scenario, but at the moment there’s no off ramp for Putin in my opinion and he is committed. Also, the humiliation of backing down would be too much to bear (which is why this situation is so dangerous).