Ukraine scenarios

Nice set of scenarios for Ukraine/Russia from the BBC (I wonder what it might look like as a matrix?). The whole sorry state reminds me of Mary Schmich’s commencement speach essay: “Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing Bubblegum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind; the kind that blindside you at 4 PM on some idle Tuesday.”

And to think we we worried about a pandemic and before that Brexit not so long ago.

So what might happen next? Is Puten playing chess or poker? I think the answer largely depends on China decides to do next, especially in relation to energy imports from Russia.

Oh and the generals. always the generals. Keep an eye on them, which I’m sure is what Putin is doing….

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