Past views of the future









Why do we continue to get the future so wrong? Personally, I think it’s a mixture of three things. First, it’s very hard not to base future predictions on extrapolations. We project recent experience into the future, with little or no regard as to the impact of unexpected new ideas, innovations or events.┬áSecond, we simultaneously underestimate and over-estimate the influence of technology. Classically, we over estimate its importance in the shorter-term and under-estimate it over much longer periods.┬áThird, we focus too much on technology, economics and the environment and forget about human nature and the influence of the past. In other words, psychological factors can be critical.

Enough of all that. Now for some funnies…

Click on a date for a film about the future from history.






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