Just spotted this at the end of my book Future Files – 2012 update, page 302.

“Russia will become more nationalistic (and go outward militarily).”

This wasn’t my idea. It stems from reading The Next 100 Years by George Friedman. His chapter on Russia 2020 is worth a look. His general argument is that major conflicts tend to repeat themselves and therefore history can indeed be a good guide to the future.

” The Russians are extremely well aware that they are facing a massive demographic crisis. Russia’s current population is about 145 million, and projections for 2050 are for between 90 million and 125 million. Time is working against it. Russia’s problem will soon be its ability to field an army sufficient for its strategic needs. Internally, the number of Russians compared to other ethnic groups is declining, placing intense pressure on Russia to male a move sooner rather than later.”

I also liked his thought that you need to look at the psychology driving national politics. In the case of Russia (and France and the UK) it’s all about the loss of empire and a desire to regain influence. Anyone for the Rise of the Fifth Reich?