I’ve been at the University of Warwick attending a conference organised by the Society of Chief Librarians. There was a good talk on scenarios by Rafael Ramîrez, a fellow in strategy and director of the scenarios programme at the Said Business School at Oxford. He said something I liked which was as follows:

“Trends are the leftovers of yesterdays futures”

I think this is largely true, especially if you are talking about distant futures. Trends tell you about yesterday. They can sometimes tell you something useful about today, but you have to be very careful about projecting them forward. Having said this, I believe that some trends can stand the test of time. Demographics might be a case in point, although even here you have to be careful. For example, the UN has just adjusted it global population forecasts due to “unforeseen” fertility in Africa.

One other thing. I was in Birmingham earlier in the week (nice new library!) and couldn’t help but notice the amount of people on the street selling grievances. There were two stalls on the street selling personal injury compensation and another asking if you’d been mis-sold financial services. There was definitely something in the air around being hard done by or wanting to claim your share of the pie.

Image: Futurelab.org.uk