If anyone is interested here’s where the slide on possible aviation futures ended up following my aviation post a while ago. Originally one axis was political/economic stability (high v low), which would obviously impact oil price. But in the end I was persuaded to go with a competition axis (many v few). The other axis is around the need or desire of passengers to fly (a mix of safety, terrorism, costs and technology advances, especially telepresence and video).

Here’s is what I ended up using.

I’m not saying this is right (it’s probably not) but it’s what came out in a relatively short space of time. One unused matrix that was very tempting included a matrix around whether the dynamics of globalization were physical versus virtual. Thanks to Jeff De Cagna who focussed by thinking on need/desire to fly and also to Oliver who bounced around some thoughts with me.